NFL tech notes this weekend!
SEATTLE at CHICAGO...Pete Carroll 7-4 vs. line TY, 18-8 vs. number last 26 since early 2011. Carroll 5-0 as dog TY, 11-1 last 12 as dog, 16-2 last 18 as dog since early 2011. Lovie only one cover last four at home TY. Seahawks "under" 7-4 in 2012, "under" 4-2 on road. Tech edge-Seahawks and slight to "under," based on tam and "totals" trends.
MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY...Ugh! Vikes haven't beaten Pack since the big Favre Minnesota year of 2009, losing last four (1-3 vs. line). Vikes, however, only 1-4 vs. line this season on road, 4-8 last 12 away against line since early LY. Pack has covered only 2 of last 6 vs. line at Lambeau since late LY. "Overs" 7-1 last 8 meetings, and Pack "over" 19-9 since late in 2010 season. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS...Rams have actually covered last two vs. 49ers since late LY (including recent SU draw at Candlestick) and are 4-1 vs. spread last five in series. Rams won and covered first three at home (all as dog) TY before recent loss to Jets. Rams also "over" last five this season, and "over" 4-1 last five meetings vs. 49ers. SF 4-1 vs. line away in 2012. Tech edge-Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
ARIZONA at NY JETS...Cards have lost last seven SU and had dropped six in a row vs. the number prior to Nov. 18 cover vs. Falcons. Whisenhunt "under" 8-3 this season and "under" 14-5-1 last 20 since early 2011. Cards also 9-5 last 14 as dog. Jets "over" 6-4-1 TY and "over" 34-16 last 50 since late 2009. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on extended Whisenhunt dog marks.
CAROLINA at KANSAS CITY...Panthers have actually covered their last three on the road this season in a pattern very close to Jacksonville's "road-in-Jag" this season, as visiting team has covered last eight Panthers games in 2012 prior to Monday vs. Eagles. Chiefs 2-4 vs. points at Arrowhead TY and 2-5 last seven since late 2011. Tech edge-Panthers, based on team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT...Lions again no covers last three TY, and only 7-15-1 vs. number last 23 on board since early 2011. Detroit 3-7-1 against number last 11 at Ford Field. Lions also "over" 7-3-1 TY, now "over" 30-15-3 last 48 since late in 2009 campaign. Colts have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Tech edge-Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO..."Road in Jag" trend continues, as visitor is 10-1 vs. spread in Jag games this season, with J'ville 5-0 against spread on road. Chan "over" 17-11 since late 2010. Tech edge-Jags and slight to "over," based on road-in-Jag and Bills' "totals" trends.
NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI...Dolphins 1-3 SU and vs. line last four this season. Belichick has won and covered 4 of last 5 at Miami. Road team 8-2 against spread last 10 in series. Belichick "over" 9-2 TY and now "over" 37-12 since late in 2009 campaign. "Overs" last four in series. Tech edge-Patriots and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE...Munchak just 4-8 vs. number last 12 at LP Field. Kubiak 21-8-1 against number last 30 on board, and Kubiak 5-1 vs. line last six in series. "Overs" 13-4 last 17 in series since 2003. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and series trends.
TAMPA BAY at DENVER...Schiano has covered 4 of last 5 and 8 of last 11 this season, he's also 5-1 as dog. Broncos have won last six SU and covered 4 of those. Bucs also "over" 5-2 last seven TY, Denver "over" 5-2 last seven and "over" 34-16 since late in 2009 campaign. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE...Baltimore has now beaten Steelers three in a row SU. Four of last six meetings decided by exactly three points. Big Ben-less Steel earned narrow cover in 13-10 loss at Heinz Field Nov. 18. Steel only 4-12 vs. line last 16 away from home after loss at Cleveland. Ravens 2-6 against line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium. Tech edge-slight to Ravens, based on extended Steeler road spread woes.
CLEVELAND at OAKLAND...Browns 6-4-1 vs. line TY, 10-4-1 last 15 and 12-5-1 last 18 against spread. Raiders 1-4 vs. points at home TY, 3-7 last 10 against points as host. Browns also "under" 8-3 in 2012 and 22-9-1 since late in 2010 season, though Raiders "over" 17-10 since last season. Tech edge-Browns, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO...Norv 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, Norv also "over" 6-2 last 8 TY, reversing previous "under" string. Marvin Lewis 10-4-1 last 15 vs. spread on road and "over" 9-5 last 14 away. Tech edge-Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS...Something has to give here. Birds 1-9 vs. line TY lost 38-23 vs. Dallas on Nov. 11 at Linc. But Cowboys 0-5 vs. line at home TY, no covers last eight at Arlington, 2-11 vs. points at home since 2011, 2-12 last 14 against points as host. Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on Cowboys' extended home woes.
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (Monday, December 3)...Shan has covered last four vs. Giants including narrow 27-23 SU loss at Met Life Stadium on Oct. 21. But loss by Giants at Cincy on Nov. 11 was first on road after eight straight covers (nine if counting Jets game when G-Men wore white uniforms last December). Giants also "under" 13-5 last 18 since late in 2011 season. Tech edge-Skins and slight to "under," based on series and recent trends.
- U (SJ at PIT)
- Will Rogers
- May 30, 2016 - 8:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ Under 5.5 -130
1* free play on SJS@PIT to go UNDER...
The San Jose Sharks and the Pittsburgh Penguins will meet in the Stanley Cup Finals, and Game 1 goes Saturday. These are the two highest scoring teams in the playoffs, and because of that we see a higher than usual total (5.5). I expect both teams to have a more cautious and conservative approach in the series opener.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Pittsburgh won the last meeting by a score of 5-1, but the total went under in each of the previous three meetings. Goals have been few and far between when these teams play in Pittsburgh, going under at a rate of 5-1-1 in the last seven.
2. Martin Jones - The Sharks netminder stopped 24-of-26 shots in a big win in Game 7 of the Western Conference Final, and he's 12-6 with a 2.12 GAA in the post-season. Jones has registered three shutouts in his last seven starts.
3. X-Factor - The under is 8-3-2 in Penguins last 13 Stanley Cup Finals games.
Selection - This is a play on the Sharks@Pens to go UNDER the total (Free)