Smart Box Series: As The Noose Tightens
By Marc Lawrence
November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race, College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tips off a new campaign. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.
Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.
This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Ten on out are 96-35-1 SU and 54-66-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Kansas State, Louisville, Notre Dame and Oregon this week.
Pair them up against an opponent that has some semblance of a defense (allows 24 or fewer PPG on the season) and the shiver in their boots, going 42-31-1 SU and 24-45-1 ATS. The Cardinals and Wildcats will be showing signs of trembling this Saturday.
Bring them in as a favorite or dog of less than 4 points off a SUATS win and it’s time for blindfolds, as these guys are 11-26 ATS.
The bottom line is these teams are at their absolute worst in these games when they take to the road off a SUATS conference win from Game 10 out with a perfect record as a favorite or dog of 4 or less points against a foe that allows 24 or fewer PPG provided they’ve won 20 or less of their previous 28 road games. These teams tend to die hard, going 9-9 SU and 2-16 ATS.
Both Kansas State and Louisville look to meet their maker this week. Gentlemen, mount your horses.
- San Francisco
- April 19, 2014 - 8:40 PM
- Art Aronson
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -125 San Francisco
This is a 1* Free Play on the San Francisco Giants.
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The Giants fell to the Padres last night in a close 2-1 pitchers duel. I think San Fran is the better team here and finds a way to bounce back and get a win on the road. San Francisco sends veteran Tim Hudson (2-0, 2.35 ERA) to the hill looking to bounce back from a recent rough start. The righty has been pitching very well this season but just gave up four runs in 7 1/3 innings in a no decision against the Rockies in his last outing. Hudson has been downright dominant in 12 career starts versus the Padres though, boasting a 6-1 record with a stingy 2.35 life time ERA. The home side will send Eric Stults (0-2, 5.52) to counter. Stults has struggled to start the year and I think the southpaw will continue to slide, he has a very pedestrian 5.21 ERA versus the Giant in 15 careers starts. Even more telling here is San Francisco’s collective .301 batting average versus him. Hunter Pence has gone 6 for 17 with two homers and a double off him. Crawford also has a pair of homers off Stults, and Pablo Sandoval is 12 for 22 with three doubles and a triple lifetime against him. The Giants sat two of their best hitters in Michael Morse and Buster Posey in yesterday’s lost. I think they jump in rested and ready to help the team score enough runs here to back Tim Hudson. Consider laying the price.