Smart Box Series: As The Noose Tightens
By Marc Lawrence
November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race, College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tips off a new campaign. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.
Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.
This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Ten on out are 96-35-1 SU and 54-66-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Kansas State, Louisville, Notre Dame and Oregon this week.
Pair them up against an opponent that has some semblance of a defense (allows 24 or fewer PPG on the season) and the shiver in their boots, going 42-31-1 SU and 24-45-1 ATS. The Cardinals and Wildcats will be showing signs of trembling this Saturday.
Bring them in as a favorite or dog of less than 4 points off a SUATS win and it’s time for blindfolds, as these guys are 11-26 ATS.
The bottom line is these teams are at their absolute worst in these games when they take to the road off a SUATS conference win from Game 10 out with a perfect record as a favorite or dog of 4 or less points against a foe that allows 24 or fewer PPG provided they’ve won 20 or less of their previous 28 road games. These teams tend to die hard, going 9-9 SU and 2-16 ATS.
Both Kansas State and Louisville look to meet their maker this week. Gentlemen, mount your horses.
- U (CHC at LA)
- AAA Sports
- August 29, 2015 - 9:10 PM
- Offered at:
- carbonsports @ Under 7 105
1* Free Play UNDER Cubs/Dodgers.
The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (8-8, 3.21 ERA) who went 8 2/3's scoreless innings vs. the Tribe on Monday, giving up just one walk to six K's. Note that Lester owns a respectable 3.24 road ERA this season. The home side counters with Mat Latos (4-9, 4.81 ERA), who returns to the rotation after a stint in the bullpen, the veteran is a poor 0-2 in three starts since joining the Dodgers, looking brilliant in his first outing, but struggling in the other two. We feel the extra time off will benefit Latos here though and with these two competent veterans battling it out on Saturday night, the UNDER does indeed become a very legitimate investment opportunity in this particular matchup.
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