Inside The Stats
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
The college bowl season officially kicks off this week and, coupled with the NFL regular season drawing to a conclusion, a likely overdose of pigskin appears on tap for the holidays.
However, for real football fans the word ‘overdose’ is nowhere to be found in the vernacular.
All bowl stats are from the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report. Enjoy…
Where The Sun Doesn’t Shine
For the first time ever Sun Belt Conference teams landed four bowl bids this season.
Interestingly, all four entrants find themselves favored by 5 or more points.
Sun Belters are 9-13 SU in postseason games since their inception.
Two teams from the conference have been installed as high as 4-point bowl favorites.
Both lost the game in straight up fashion.
Tale Of The Tape
An interesting handicapping slant is weighing teams and their performance in games against other fellow bowl teams this season.
The best spread beaters were: Northwestern (6-0), Kent State (4-0-1) and Utah State (3-0)
The biggest money losers are: Central Michigan (0-5), Duke (0-5) and Mississippi State (0-4), with USC (1-7) knocking on the door.
In games ‘In The Stats’ (net overall yards versus opponent’s net overall yards), the biggest Yards Per Game stat winners were: Northern Illinois (+143), Texas A&M (+134) and Oregon (+110).
Teams that got pushed all around the field, or the biggest Yards Per Game stat losers, were: Duke (-212), Mississippi State (-194) and Purdue (-189).
Teams with new coaches are often elated to grab a bowl bid. When they do the results are not pretty.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these excited, hormonal teams are just 39-65-2 ATS as bowlers since 1990.
Teams hoping to carry out the daunting task of improving on those numbers this year include: Arizona, Arizona State, Fresno State, Mississippi, Pittsburgh, Toledo and UCLA.
Red Rover Red Over
Week Fourteen in the NFL has been fan friendly for ‘Over’ players.
According to the Playbook NFL Totals Tip Sheet, current streaks include:
• 9-1 ‘Over’ in non-division games when both teams are off a pair of ‘Overs’ and the total in the game is 45 or fewer points.
• 9-1 ‘Over’ when a road underdog is playing off a pair of ‘Overs’ and the total in the game is more than 45 points
• 8-1 ‘Over’ favorites playing off a pair of ‘Unders’ versus an opponent off an ‘Under’.
Three favorites on the NFL card this week find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been out-gained in each of their last three games).
They include: Houston, Oakland and San Diego.
Proceed with caution.
Stat Of The Week
NFC dogs hosting an AFC opponent during Week Fourteen of the season are 21-3 ‘Over’ the last three years.
- U (BAL at BOS)
- April 20, 2014 - 7:05 PM
- Art Aronson
- Offered at:
- bookmaker @ Under 9 -115
1* Free Play “under” Red Sox/Orioles.
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This is the Sunday night ESPN game and I believe this one sets up as a classic pitchers duel. The Orioles will send Ubaldo Jimenez (0-3, 7.31 ERA) to the hill to face the Red Sox. Jimenez has had a poor start to the season but this is the perfect opponent for the struggling starter to get untracked against; the Red Sox have been inconsistent at the plate this season, so this is Jimenez’s moment to start turning things around. Boston's Jake Peavy (0-0, 1.93) is unbeaten in his last 10 regular-season starts, going 3-0 with a 3.17 ERA. He struck out eight and gave up one run in six innings in Tuesday’s 2-1 road loss to the Chicago White Sox. Peavey has pitched well against the Orioles with 3.15 ERA and 2-0 record. Baltimore’s best hitter in Chris Davis is 2 for 17 with eight strikeouts against Boston this year and hitless in five at-bats versus Peavy. Keep in mind that the lower number is 3-1 in Boston games when the total number is set at either 9 or 9.5. Also, the Red Sox have seen the total go “under” the number in six of nine vs. divisional opponents this year. Four of five games between these two teams this season (including last night’s game) saw the lower number hit. I believe the stage is once again set for a lower-scoring affair. How about you? Pitchers duel or slugfest?