Inside The Stats
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
The college bowl season officially kicks off this week and, coupled with the NFL regular season drawing to a conclusion, a likely overdose of pigskin appears on tap for the holidays.
However, for real football fans the word ‘overdose’ is nowhere to be found in the vernacular.
All bowl stats are from the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report. Enjoy…
Where The Sun Doesn’t Shine
For the first time ever Sun Belt Conference teams landed four bowl bids this season.
Interestingly, all four entrants find themselves favored by 5 or more points.
Sun Belters are 9-13 SU in postseason games since their inception.
Two teams from the conference have been installed as high as 4-point bowl favorites.
Both lost the game in straight up fashion.
Tale Of The Tape
An interesting handicapping slant is weighing teams and their performance in games against other fellow bowl teams this season.
The best spread beaters were: Northwestern (6-0), Kent State (4-0-1) and Utah State (3-0)
The biggest money losers are: Central Michigan (0-5), Duke (0-5) and Mississippi State (0-4), with USC (1-7) knocking on the door.
In games ‘In The Stats’ (net overall yards versus opponent’s net overall yards), the biggest Yards Per Game stat winners were: Northern Illinois (+143), Texas A&M (+134) and Oregon (+110).
Teams that got pushed all around the field, or the biggest Yards Per Game stat losers, were: Duke (-212), Mississippi State (-194) and Purdue (-189).
Teams with new coaches are often elated to grab a bowl bid. When they do the results are not pretty.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these excited, hormonal teams are just 39-65-2 ATS as bowlers since 1990.
Teams hoping to carry out the daunting task of improving on those numbers this year include: Arizona, Arizona State, Fresno State, Mississippi, Pittsburgh, Toledo and UCLA.
Red Rover Red Over
Week Fourteen in the NFL has been fan friendly for ‘Over’ players.
According to the Playbook NFL Totals Tip Sheet, current streaks include:
• 9-1 ‘Over’ in non-division games when both teams are off a pair of ‘Overs’ and the total in the game is 45 or fewer points.
• 9-1 ‘Over’ when a road underdog is playing off a pair of ‘Overs’ and the total in the game is more than 45 points
• 8-1 ‘Over’ favorites playing off a pair of ‘Unders’ versus an opponent off an ‘Under’.
Three favorites on the NFL card this week find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been out-gained in each of their last three games).
They include: Houston, Oakland and San Diego.
Proceed with caution.
Stat Of The Week
NFC dogs hosting an AFC opponent during Week Fourteen of the season are 21-3 ‘Over’ the last three years.
- Tampa Bay
- Larry Ness
- May 25, 2015 - 7:10 PM
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ -137 Tampa Bay
Odorizzi has been the most consistent pitcher for the Rays in 2015...
My free play is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.
The Seattle Mariners weren’t able to pull off the three-game road sweep in Toronto, losing 8-2 on Sunday afternoon. Actually, taking two of three in a road series is big news for the Mariners, as with Sunday’s loss, they’ve lost NINE of their last 13 away games. The Mariners have batted only .226 while averaging just 3.0 runs over their last 11 games, so starter for Roenis Elias (1-1, 2.76 ERA) HAS to be worried that it could be more of the same for him on Monday night in Tampa Bay. Seattle has scored just 10 runs for Elias (1-1, 2.76) over his five outings. The left-hander picked up his first victory in a FOURTH straight quality start Wednesday, when he gave up one run over 7.2 innings in a 4-2 win at Baltimore. He's been outstanding," manager Lloyd McClendon said. "He's been very consistent since his recall from Triple-A."
Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi (3-4, 2.43 ERA) knows plenty about not getting enough support, as well. He has put up a quality outing in EIGHT of nine starts but has received just 15 total runs of support, leaving him 3-4 on the season, with the Rays going just 4-5 in his starts despite his excellent ERA, outstanding 0.96 WHIP and with opponents batting just .211 against him. "You feel for him because he's pitched really well all year," manager Kevin Cash told MLB's official website. "At the same time, he's a pro. He gets it. He just keeps going out there giving us what we need." In his only career start versus Seattle, Odorizzi allowed one hit over six innings in a 2-0 road win May 14, 2014
Odorizzi has been the most consistent pitcher for the Rays in 2015, while permitting three or fewer runs in all but one start, including FIVE times allowing one or zero runs. He’s OVERDUE for some help.
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