Inside The Stats
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
The college bowl season officially kicks off this week and, coupled with the NFL regular season drawing to a conclusion, a likely overdose of pigskin appears on tap for the holidays.
However, for real football fans the word ‘overdose’ is nowhere to be found in the vernacular.
All bowl stats are from the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report. Enjoy…
Where The Sun Doesn’t Shine
For the first time ever Sun Belt Conference teams landed four bowl bids this season.
Interestingly, all four entrants find themselves favored by 5 or more points.
Sun Belters are 9-13 SU in postseason games since their inception.
Two teams from the conference have been installed as high as 4-point bowl favorites.
Both lost the game in straight up fashion.
Tale Of The Tape
An interesting handicapping slant is weighing teams and their performance in games against other fellow bowl teams this season.
The best spread beaters were: Northwestern (6-0), Kent State (4-0-1) and Utah State (3-0)
The biggest money losers are: Central Michigan (0-5), Duke (0-5) and Mississippi State (0-4), with USC (1-7) knocking on the door.
In games ‘In The Stats’ (net overall yards versus opponent’s net overall yards), the biggest Yards Per Game stat winners were: Northern Illinois (+143), Texas A&M (+134) and Oregon (+110).
Teams that got pushed all around the field, or the biggest Yards Per Game stat losers, were: Duke (-212), Mississippi State (-194) and Purdue (-189).
Teams with new coaches are often elated to grab a bowl bid. When they do the results are not pretty.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these excited, hormonal teams are just 39-65-2 ATS as bowlers since 1990.
Teams hoping to carry out the daunting task of improving on those numbers this year include: Arizona, Arizona State, Fresno State, Mississippi, Pittsburgh, Toledo and UCLA.
Red Rover Red Over
Week Fourteen in the NFL has been fan friendly for ‘Over’ players.
According to the Playbook NFL Totals Tip Sheet, current streaks include:
• 9-1 ‘Over’ in non-division games when both teams are off a pair of ‘Overs’ and the total in the game is 45 or fewer points.
• 9-1 ‘Over’ when a road underdog is playing off a pair of ‘Overs’ and the total in the game is more than 45 points
• 8-1 ‘Over’ favorites playing off a pair of ‘Unders’ versus an opponent off an ‘Under’.
Three favorites on the NFL card this week find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been out-gained in each of their last three games).
They include: Houston, Oakland and San Diego.
Proceed with caution.
Stat Of The Week
NFC dogs hosting an AFC opponent during Week Fourteen of the season are 21-3 ‘Over’ the last three years.
- U (DAL at NYR)
- Ben Burns
- January 17, 2017 - 7:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ Under 6 -115
BURNS FREE NHL 1/17
A SWEET 6-1 MLK Day showing included a pair of NEVER-IN-DOUBT WINNERS in the pros, the Wizards & Warriors. That brings Ben Burns to a RIDICULOUS 16-2 his L18 NBA, a SICK 8-1 his last nine. For 2017, he's an INSANE 22-4 ATS. No surprise there, as Ben's NBA has been M-O-N-E-Y for years and also WON HUGE in 2016.
Both these teams are off high-scoring games and games here have been pretty high-scoring all season. That said, an O/U line of six gives us a lot of room to work with. Keep in mind that the Stars average only 2.5 goals per road game.
When these teams met a little over a month ago, at Dallas, the O/U line was 5.5. (It opened at 5.5u125 and closed at 5.5u15.) The result? A 2-0 final score. Nine of the Stars' last 13 visits to MSG have also fallen below the number.
The Stars, who have seen seven of 11 "non-conference" games stay below the total, will be playing a road game with an O/U line of six for just the second time. The first? A 2-1 final at Nashville. Don't be surprised if this one also proves a little lower-scoring than expected.
Ben Burns was 6-1 on Monday, including a PERFECT 3-0 on the ice. Through the first 16 days of 2017, he's now 62-34 overall, good for 18.8 net units of profit. Over the past few seasons, Burns has delivered more than 57 net winners of pure NHL profit. His latest "Personal Favorite" goes today!