Not a Wild Weekend
Not a Wild Weekend
By Bryan Power
For a league built on drama and storylines, there weren’t many to be had on NFL Wild Card Weekend. All four favorites won and covered, and all four games went Under the total. None of the games went down to the wire and I’m not sure I learned a single thing about any of the winners or losers that I already didn’t know.
I feel that there were three teams that overachieved this season by getting into the playoffs: Minnesota, Indianapolis and Washington. All three were exposed over the weekend and had unfortunate circumstances affect them even before the ball was kicked off.
How in this age of Twitter and 24-hour sports coverage did no one know about the severity of Vikings QB Christian Ponder’s elbow? As soon as the shocking announcement was made Saturday afternoon that Ponder would be inactive, bettors immediately jumped on Green Bay, betting the favorite from -7.5 to -10.5. We almost had a situation where Minnesota pulled out a back door cover as they had the ball in Packers territory down 24-10 in the final seconds, but that situation never materialized.
Not knowing that Ponder wouldn’t be playing, most of my analysis (I played Green Bay as *10*) centered around the tremendous edge the Packers had at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers. With Joe Webb under center, the Vikings didn’t have a chance. And why didn’t Minnesota run the ball with Adrian Peterson more? I realize they trailed for much of the game, but 22 carries is unacceptable, particularly with a backup quarterback in the game.
Indianapolis lost Bruce Arians to the flu bug the morning of the game, and that clearly had an effect. Arians is my choice for Coach of the Year as he filled in so admirably for Chuck Pagano, and it was somewhat of a cruel twist of fate that after missing Pagano for the balance of the year that Arians absence is what sealed the Colts’ fate.
The only real storyline coming out of the weekend is the Robert Griffin III “situation.” Was RG3 left in the game “too long?” Probably. But, I’m here to tell you that with an injured Griffin, the Redskins had no chance to beat the Seahawks no matter what coach Mike Shanahan would have done. When he finally did get in the game, Washington backup QB Kirk Cousins was ineffective at best, completing only 3 of 10 passes for 31 yards. For what it’s worth, the Skins were LEADING heading into the fourth quarter. And as you’re likely to see this week in Atlanta, pocket passers aren’t a very good option against a Seattle defense that was the best in the league during the regular season. Washington gained only 74 yards total in the final three quarters!
The weekend’s first game was Cincinnati at Houston. The Texans didn’t so much impress me in this one (though they did finish with a 420-198 edge in total yards) as the Bengals really disappointed me. Quarterback Andy Dalton was just awful. He missed wide open throws that if given the opportunity next week, Tom Brady will not against a vulnerable Houston secondary. Cincinnati’s only touchdown was scored by the defense, yet they still had a chance to win the game.
Three of this weekend’s games are regular season rematches and the team that won is favored the first go-around is favored this weekend. Could that mean another drama-less weekend? Perhaps. Does anyone see either AFC underdog (Houston and Baltimore) winning straight up? Not me. Over in the NFC, San Francisco beat Green Bay all the way back in Week 1 at Lambeau. Seattle at Atlanta is the only matchup that’s not a regular season rematch, and that’s the one game where everyone is going to give the dog the best shot.
After winning 17 straight seasons in the Divisional Round, the top seed in the NFC has been one and done four of the last five seasons. The top seed in the AFC had lost three straight years before last season.
- Green Bay
- AAA Sports
- October 11, 2015 - 1:00 PM
- Offered at:
- bookmaker @ -9.5 -105 Green Bay
1* Free Play Packers.
The Rams surprised everyone with their outright SU win over the Cardinals last week, but if this team has shown anything this season, it's been it's unbelievable inconsistency from week to week. After beating division rival Seattle in its opener, St. Louis would then promptly lose to a mediocre Redskins team in Week 2 and now has to face Aaron Rodgers and the 4-0 SU/ATS Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. There's no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Rams after another tough divisional win and note that from a trend based standpoint, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as St. Louis is just 1-5 SU its last six vs. the Pack and only 4-9 SU its last 13 on the road (also just 2-5 ATS its last seven overall), while Green Bay is 5-0 SU its last five at home and 7-2 SU its last nine vs. the Rams at Lambeau. We're going to lay the points as we expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" to their bye the following week, followed by back-to-back "cream puffs" at home vs. the Browns and 49'ers respectively; consider a second look at GREEN BAY in this one.