NBA Playoff Opening Round Betting Strategies
By Marc Lawrence
With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs. All results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
Here’s what the machine has to say…
No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball
For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (45-114) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and last year’s 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.
And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS, including 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a loss of 14 or more points in their last game.
Upset Losers Are Winners
No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 56-35-4 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 52-14 SU and 39-24-3 ATS, including 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 28-16-2 ATS in this role, including 17-8-1 ATS versus a non-division foe.
And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 15-3 ATS.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.
And Down Goes Frazier
The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.
With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 6-30 SU and 11-25 ATS away from home this round, including 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in lid-lifters.
Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS on their way to the canvas.
The Golden State Warriors are 12-1-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3 points in the first round of the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when taking 8 or less points.
Enjoy the opening round of the 2013 NBA playoffs.
- Jesse Schule
- March 27, 2015 - 7:15 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -8.5 -105 Gonzaga
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Gonzaga #Bulldogs.
According to bookmakers, the UCLA Bruins are the least likely of the remaining teams to win the NCAA Tournament. You can still get the Bruins at 100-1 odds at Westgate Superbook. The Bruins were very lucky to have even qualified for the tournament, and many experts were critical of the committee for selecting them. UCLA came into the tournament with a 2-8 record versus the RPI Top 50, and 4-11 away from Pauley Pavilion. If you look at the Bruin's schedule, the most impressive thing they've done is lose to Arizona. Some might say they finished the season strong by winning four of five prior to the tourney, but it's worth pointing out that all four of those wins came against bottom feeders of the Pac-12. They beat Washington and Washington State, and USC twice. The Trojans finished dead last in the conference with a record of 3-15.
After being gifted a one-point victory on a controversial goaltend call in their first round match versus SMU, they got a lucky draw against minnows UAB in the second round. I think their luck is going to run out here in the Sweet 16 against Gonzaga, a team with a lot to prove. Perhaps the fact that the Bulldogs have a history of early exits has contributed to why the line in this game is still in single digits. This year's team is even stronger than it was in past season's though, as evidenced by their 87-68 win over a very solid Iowa team in the second round. The two teams that eliminated Gonzaga in the last two years have each gone on to the Final Four (Wichita State and Arizona). UCLA doesn't come anywhere near either of those teams in terms of talent. When these teams met during the regular season, the Bruins lost to Gonzaga by 13 points on their home court. I see no reason why they should expect a better result here in Houston.
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