NBA Playoff Opening Round Betting Strategies
By Marc Lawrence
With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs. All results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
Here’s what the machine has to say…
No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball
For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (45-114) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and last year’s 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.
And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS, including 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a loss of 14 or more points in their last game.
Upset Losers Are Winners
No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 56-35-4 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 52-14 SU and 39-24-3 ATS, including 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 28-16-2 ATS in this role, including 17-8-1 ATS versus a non-division foe.
And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 15-3 ATS.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.
And Down Goes Frazier
The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.
With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 6-30 SU and 11-25 ATS away from home this round, including 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in lid-lifters.
Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS on their way to the canvas.
The Golden State Warriors are 12-1-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3 points in the first round of the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when taking 8 or less points.
Enjoy the opening round of the 2013 NBA playoffs.
- April 16, 2014 - 8:05 PM
- Doc's Sports
- Offered at:
- top bet @ 121 Seattle
Doc's Sports Wednesday MLB Free Play!
Wednesday MLB Free Play from Doc’s Sports Take #919 Seattle Mariners over Texas Rangers (Wednesday, 8:05pm EST) Two aces do battle in Arlington where the Texas Rangers host the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday. Felix Hernandez and Yu Darvish are two of the top pitchers in baseball, and if you were rating them it would normally be a tough task determining which is better. But nobody is pitching better than King Felix right now. The 28-year old right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.75 WHIP to go along with an insane 30-2 K/BB ratio in 21.1 innings. It’s the best start to a season of his career and I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that he’s now throwing to one of the best defensive catchers in baseball – Mike Zunino. Seattle has had some really bad catchers over the last few years and it’s certainly cost the M’s, but Zunino is a rising star behind the plate. He helps out his pitchers a ton whether it’s framing pitches, blocking potential wild ones and calling a solid game. Personally, I think Zunino is going to help Felix Hernandez earn the Cy Young in the AL this season and he’s well on his way after the first three outings. Darvish is throwing the ball pretty well right now too, but he’s also dealing with a cut on his thumb that could be problematic in this game. The Rangers are without leader Adrian Beltre, which hurts just as much defensively as it does offensively. They’re also without starters Jurickson Profar and Geovony Soto to make matters even worse. It’s been a slow start to the season for Texas offense and King Felix isn’t the guy you want to face to turn things around. Take the Mariners to get the win here behind the hottest pitcher in baseball.