NFL In November
By Marc Lawrence
With trick or treating and NFL underdogs satisfying many a sweet tooth this season, we move on into the 2nd half of the 2012 NFL campaign.
And thanks to the PLABOOK Football yearbook magazine we learn how teams have fared during the month of November in five key situational roles, namely: Favorites, Dogs, Home, Away and in Division.
Before carving up that Thanksgiving Day turkey be sure to check out this list of the appetizing team results. Listed below are the good, bad and ugly team trends in games played in the NFL during November since 1990. Enjoy the games.
• Good: If you go through many Twitter pages or sports forums, you will find Tony Romo has a host of nicknames, some that cannot be posted here. Yet despite this, Romo and his predecessors at quarterback have been backed by fine defenses this month and are 37-18 ATS when playing in Big D. Dallas will have two chances to improve this record, on Thanksgiving and four days prior.
• Bad: Having won a couple Super Bowls in the past several years, one would not use the word like ‘mediocre’ to describe the New York Giants very often, yet that is precisely what the G-Men are at home this month. Looking back, they have left their football-betting backers with a 13-27 ATS mark. They will have Pittsburgh the first Sunday of the month and a Sunday night affair with Green Bay to close November in New Jersey.
Another NFL team not synonymous with success is St. Louis, who last had a winning season in 2003. The Rams hired Jeff Fisher to take them out of this desolate existence and though general improvement has been witnessed, there is a long way to go. St. Louis is a dreadful 14-33 ATS at home this month and thanks to a bye week, only has one game at the E. J. Dome on Nov. 18.
• Keep an eye on: Buffalo and Oakland have been failures for years, yet for some reason they go in opposite directions in November playing on their own field. The Bills are a sharp 27-16 ATS, as the bone-chilling colds starts to set in, while the Raiders “Commit to Excellence” are just words, not to be taken seriously because of their 15-25 ATS record.
• Keep an eye on: Over the last decade or more, when you hear the names Atlanta, San Diego and Detroit for NFL football, what are they associated with, success or failure? The Falcons and Chargers certainly fit the former and it shows in how they play on the road with Atlanta 26-15 ATS and San Diego 25-15 against the spread.
Toss out Detroit’s 2011 campaign and the Lions and they have made more bad choices than the Octomom. Send Detroit out of MoTown and they are 13-25 ATS.
• Bad: Robert Griffin III has already done special things in a Redskins uniform, even guiding his team to home victories, something they have not been very good at recently. (36-44 SU, 2002-11) With RG3 doing his part fueled by Subway, maybe he takes the whole team over to the sub shop when they are in the role of favorite, since the Skins are 10-25 ATS. – which ties nicely into the lack of success starting rookie QB’s have had in the league this season. This month, Washington will be giving points to Carolina and possibly to Philadelphia on Nov. 18.
• Keep an eye on: Previously, Dallas has been mentioned as rock solid home wager and naturally this has often come in the role as the favorite, doling out points. With this being true, the Cowboys are winners when passing points to the competition and are 39-20 versus the oddsmakers.
The Romeo Crennel era in Kansas City is starting to look it might last as long as the Rick Perry for President campaign. Seemingly, every mistake the Chiefs make is multiplied, giving credence to their failures and supporting their 10-25 ATS record. K.C. might be favored one time when the Bengals visit them.
• Keep an eye on: Two teams from the same division are polar opposites when it comes to how they perform when on the receiving end of catching linemakers’ digits. Chicago is a sparkling 34-21 ATS as an underdog and is presumed to be in this role at San Francisco on a Monday night.
Detroit on the other hand is a feeble 22-38 ATS as a dastardly dog. Precisely how often oddsmakers will place them in this position is difficult to say with a road game in Minnesota and Ford Field affairs with Green Bay (Nov.18) and Houston on Thanksgiving.
• Good: In the past, New Orleans has been cleaning up on the NFC South in the 11th month of the year, but this year’s team and situation is completely different. The Saints have no defense, no running game and no real head coach, which makes it hard to conceive they will improve upon their 26-13 ATS record vs. division partners. Let’s see how they perform in the bayou when Atlanta pays a visit on Nov.11.
• Keep an eye on: For those betting on football that like numbers and appreciate coincidence, this is for you. Both Buffalo and Washington are 15-25 ATS against division opposition the past 21 years. This November, each will play one home and road game in their division and each circumstance has the Bills and Redskins playing them with four days between games. Weird!
Doug Upstone of Sports-Watch.com contributed to this article.
- Power Sports
- December 7, 2016 - 7:30 PM
- Offered at:
- betonline @ 100 Minnesota
1* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Though only 4th in their own division (Central), I actually have the Wild rated as the top team in the Western Conference right now. After concluding a three-game trek though Western Canada w/ a 2-1 win over Edmonton on Sunday, I believe the team has been severely mispriced as they get set to hit the other end of the country
Ironically, Toronto also just concluded a three-game trip through Western Canada. Like the Wild, they beat Edmonton, but lost to Vancouver and Calgary. Unlike the Wild, the Leafs' trip started in Edmonton and worked its way West. Though 10-9-5 overall, Toronto still finds itself in last place in the division as the Atlantic is shaping up to be quite challenging this year. While they've been far better at home than on the road, the Leafs still don't deserve to be the ML favorites in this matchup. They are just 5-11 SU playing w/ three days rest by the way. They are 28th in goals allowed plus were shutout in Calgary last week. The goaltending they'll face here is far stiffer.
What I like about Minnesota is the fact they are 2nd in the league in goals allowed and first in save percentage. Paced by Devan Dubnyk (league leader at .948), the Wild have outscored opponents so far by 15 goals. Dubnyk already has four shutouts and his GAA is 1.63. It's a massive edge for him over Toronto's Frederik Andersen. The Wild have won all five meetings with the Maple Leafs the last three seasons, including a 3-2 home win back in October. Great value here on the better team. 1* Minnesota