NCAAB - Exposing the Top 25
Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Arizona Wildcats (12-0, 7-3-0 ATS)
The Wildcats remained undefeated, with a win by the narrowest of margins on Christmas Day, defeating San Diego State by a score of 68-67. The victory marked the second time this season the Wildcats have beaten a ranked opponent. They knocked off Florida earlier this month in another close game, winning 65-64. Arizona failed to cover the spread against the Aztecs, but they have been very profitable so far this year, covering the points 70 percent of the time with an ATS record of 7-3.
The Wildcats will host the 9-2 Colorado Buffaloes on January 3, and the Buffaloes already have a victory over a ranked opponent under their belts, defeating Baylor 60-58 on November 16. Arizona doesn't have an easy schedule, with plenty of games coming up against quality opponents, but they don't play another ranked team for the remainder of the season.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Michigan State Spartans (11-2, 3-7 ATS)
The Spartans have won six straight since losing to the Miami Hurricanes in Miami on November 11. While they have a record of 11-2 SU, the Spartans have burned their backers, failing to cover the spread 70 percent of the time this season with an ATS record of 3-7.
When they take on the Golden Gophers in Minnesota on New Years Eve, it will be their third game against a ranked opponent. They are 1-1 in such games so far, losing their season opener to UCONN and then defeating the Kansas Jayhawks just four days later by a score of 67-64.
Michigan State has a tough road ahead in the second half of the season, with eight of their final 15 games coming against ranked opponents.
Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - UConn Huskies (9-2, 2-7 ATS)
The Huskies have won three straight games since their loss to N.C. State at the beginning of the month. They failed to cover the points in each of those three victories, despite the fact none of those games were close, including an 88-73 win over Fordham, winning by 15 as a 15.5-point favorite.
UConn will host the other Huskies of Washington this Saturday, and then travel to Milwaukee to take on the Marquette Golden Eagles on Tuesday. While neither of those matchups are easy, back-to-back wins against unranked teams could put Connecticut back in the rankings.
- Brandon Shively
- August 26, 2016 - 10:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 20 -110 Hawaii
This is a 1* Free Pick on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
This game is being played on a neutral in Australia. I don’t think that this neutral playing site will benefit either team so I am going to exploit the head to head matchup here. Cal is a team that went 9-27 combined from 2012 to 2014 before winning 8 games last year, behind a QB (Goff) that got drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. This is also a Cal team that has only been a favorite away from home 3 times in the last 4 years. Cal lost their top 6 receivers and 5 of their top 6 tacklers. While Cal will have a reliable QB in Davis Webb from Texas Tech, he doesn’t have a lot of talent around him and it will take time for Webb to get in sync with these new receivers. I will also note that Cal has a new offensive coordinator. While it’s still the ‘Air Raid’ offense, there are new schemes being installed and it will take time before the Bears are putting up 40+ points. With only 3 seniors starting on defense, I like Hawaii to score enough points to cover this spread.
Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in Week 1 the last five years and are undervalued in this spot. There's a new Head Coach for Hawaii and he used to play for the Rainbow Warriors. Nick Rolovich was the QB for Hawaii and will have former teammate Brian SMith as the offensive coordinator and associate head coach. I think these two guys are going to gel great and Hawaii can only get better as a team. Rolovich was the OC at Nevada the last 4 years. Rolovich came to Nevada after a wildly productive four-year run at Hawaii, where he directed one of the top passing offenses in the nation. He was the quarterbacks coach all four seasons and spent the last two years as the Warriors' offensive coordinator.In Rolovich’s first game with Nevada in 2012, Rolovich beat Cal, 31-24, as a 12 point road dog, so their is some ‘deja vu’ here and a great storyline.
Hawaii returns 9 players on offense (73 offensive line starts). Senior QB Woolsey should be able to lead the team on some scores against this soft Cal defense. While Hawaii’s weakness is their secondary, the Cal Bears passing game is not going to be up to full speed yet. I think Hawaii will be improved offensively from last year and Cal will struggle to score, especially touchdowns and the defense is not good enough to offset the offensive regression.
Special Teams: Senior utility kicker Sanchez was one of only five kickers nationally to handle all duties. As a field goal kicker, he converted 8-of-11 attempts, including two from 47 yards and a long of 50 to earn all-Mountain West Honorable Mention. So we have a quality FG kicker on our side here as well. While we are looking for touchdowns, all scores will help and this game should have it’s fair share of field goal opportunities. (1* Hawaii plus the points)
Brandon Shively is a documented *$47,860 in profits since 2013 in NFL/CFB combined!* Brandon torched the College Football books in the ‘14-’15 season hitting a documented 67.5% of his picks during the regular season. Football is his strongest sport and looks forward to building your bankroll this season with him on Covers! If you are looking to maximize your profits this football season, Brandon says he will do it for you and you will have a fun time winning while watching your bankroll grow and SMASHING your ‘Book’ all at the same time!