Tale of the tape: Miami vs. Buffalo
An AFC East showdown takes the Thursday night spot light when the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. We break down both sides in our tale of the tape:
The Dolphins, who average 105.8 yards on the ground per game, tried to spark their rushing offense last week versus Tennessee but mustered only 54 yards on 15 carries, including a fumble from RB Reggie Bush. Miami has rushed for only 78.3 yards per game over its last three contests, and hasn’t done much to relieve the pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who was intercepted three times in Week 10.
The Bills will be without RB Fred Jackson (concussion) Thursday, leaving the offense to lean on backup C.J. Spiller. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Spiller averages 7.3 yards per carry this year – best in the NFL – and seems to make big plays whenever he touches the football. Buffalo put up a solid fight versus New England last Sunday, scoring 31 points and boasting a franchise-record 35 first downs. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.
Miami has looked to its defense to keep it in ball games this season, allowing just 20.7 points per game – eighth lowest in the NFL. The Dolphins front seven has done a great job plugging up the ground game, giving up 94.2 yards an outing, but that number must be taken with a grain of salt because of how bad Miami is at defending the pass. Opponents are putting up 278 yards through the air each time the Dolphins take the field. Those same opponents are averaging 11.7 yards per completion.
The Bills haven't been doing themselves any favors defensively, allowing at least 35 points in four of their last six games overall. They're giving up a whopping 6.4 yards per play on the season, and have been particularly poor against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. On a positive note, the Dolphins don't appear poised to exploit that weakness, as they're averaging only 3.8 yards per rush. Buffalo has been fairly consistent in terms of its pass rush, averaging 2.7 sacks per game here at home.
The Dolphins return game has been a big positive this season, as they're averaging well north of the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return, and 27.3 yards on kickoffs. Kicker Dan Carpenter has had a bit of an off year, converting on only 13 of 17 field goal attempts. With a sputtering red zone offense, Carpenter could certainly be a factor on Thursday night.
Buffalo has been even better returning punts, one of the league's best teams in that department, averaging 19.5 yards per return. The problem is, they've had a tough time defending punts, giving up 15 yards per return. On kickoff returns, they've been nothing more than average at 26.3 yards per return. Veteran kicker Ryan Lindell has made good on 9 of 10 field goal attempts.
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- Ben Burns
- January 17, 2017 - 7:00 PM
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A SWEET 6-1 MLK Day showing included a pair of NEVER-IN-DOUBT WINNERS in the pros, the Wizards & Warriors. That brings Ben Burns to a RIDICULOUS 16-2 his L18 NBA, a SICK 8-1 his last nine. For 2017, he's an INSANE 22-4 ATS. No surprise there, as Ben's NBA has been M-O-N-E-Y for years and also WON HUGE in 2016.
Both these teams are off high-scoring games and games here have been pretty high-scoring all season. That said, an O/U line of six gives us a lot of room to work with. Keep in mind that the Stars average only 2.5 goals per road game.
When these teams met a little over a month ago, at Dallas, the O/U line was 5.5. (It opened at 5.5u125 and closed at 5.5u15.) The result? A 2-0 final score. Nine of the Stars' last 13 visits to MSG have also fallen below the number.
The Stars, who have seen seven of 11 "non-conference" games stay below the total, will be playing a road game with an O/U line of six for just the second time. The first? A 2-1 final at Nashville. Don't be surprised if this one also proves a little lower-scoring than expected.
Ben Burns was 6-1 on Monday, including a PERFECT 3-0 on the ice. Through the first 16 days of 2017, he's now 62-34 overall, good for 18.8 net units of profit. Over the past few seasons, Burns has delivered more than 57 net winners of pure NHL profit. His latest "Personal Favorite" goes today!