NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 18
The All-Star Break is upon us, and the trade deadline last week certainly injected some drama into this season. The Cavaliers were the main culprit, as GM Koby Altman completely re-made the Cavs' roster. In the short term, at least, the moves have paid dividends. And Cleveland served notice, with its 121-99 blowout of Boston, that reports of its demise were premature. Let's take a look at this upcoming, abbreviated week.
The Phoenix Suns are 18-40 straight-up, and 26-31-1 against the spread this season. And they've dropped their last six games SU and their last four ATS. Even worse: two of their three worst defeats have come in their last three games. San Antonio pounded them by 48 on February 7. And then Golden State won by 46 this past Monday. And that loss was made even more ignominious by the fact that Golden State's Steve Kerr decided to not even coach his team for that game (Kerr let his players coach themselves), a fact that really rankled the Suns' staff. But, perhaps, that embarrassing, blowout loss will serve as "rock-bottom" for this Suns team. This week, they'll travel to Salt Lake City for their final game before the All-Star Break. And I actually like them catching double-digits from the red-hot Jazz, who have won 10 in a row. And that's because rested road teams off losses by 40+ points have gone 37-19-2 ATS since 1990. Take the Suns on Wednesday.
The hottest team in the league are Quin Snyder's Utah Jazz, who have won 10 straight games after Monday's comeback win vs. San Antonio. And the primary reason for Utah's success has been on the offensive end, as they've averaged 112 points during their win streak (they had averaged just 101.5 prior to the start of the streak). Not surprisingly, the Jazz have gone 'over' the total in six of their last eight games. Will Utah's offense continue to roll? It's possible, given that the Jazz will face the defensively-challenged Suns (the league's worst defensive team) before the All-Star Break, and then take on Portland, at home, immediately after the break. Utah put up 129 points on the Suns earlier in February, and also toasted Portland for 112 and 115 points in their two previous meetings this season. And all of those games did go 'over' the total. I especially like the Jazz/Blazers game to be relatively high scoring, as 14 of the last 21 meetings between these two clubs have gone 'over' the total.
The New York Knicks suffered their worst nightmare when Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL in his left knee against the Milwaukee Bucks on February 6. Porzingis was averaging 22.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. So, his worth to a Knicks team largely bereft of talent cannot be overstated. The Knicks went on to lose that game to Milwaukee, 103-89, and have lost every game since (both SU and ATS). Currently, the Knicks are on a seven-game losing streak, and have dropped five in a row ATS. This week, the Knicks will host Washington on Valentine's Day, before resuming play after the break, on the road, against the Magic. And while it's certainly true that New York has struggled vs. Washington (0-7 SU; 1-6 ATS since 2016), teams like the Wizards, who are off a win and playing their last game before the All-Star Break on the road, have been poor vs. opponents off back to back losses. Since 1990, such road teams have gone 37% ATS. Take the Knicks.
The Portland Trail Blazers will surely come out with a vengeance on Wednesday vs. the Golden State Warriors. Not only will the Blazers want to bounce back from their 19-point home loss to Utah, but they'll also want to snap their 11-game losing streak to Golden State (which encompassed a 4-0 playoff series sweep last season). And, for technical support, we will note that winning teams, off a loss, have cashed 69.5% at home, if they had lost their previous 10 meetings against their opponent! We actually saw this situation occur back in November when the Knicks upset the Clippers, 107-85, as a 2-point home underdog, to snap their 10-game losing streak to Los Angeles. I look for Portland to pull off a similar upset vs. Golden State. Take the Blazers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my Hoops and Hockey Winners here at Covers.com, including my NBA Game of the Month on Valentine's Day. Or, better yet, join for a week or month today to get all of my Award-Winning plays.
- Power Sports
- March 19, 2019 - 7:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 888sport @ CAR (-134)
1* Carolina (7:05 ET): Two teams from the Metro vying for playoff spots meet here in Raleigh. The Penguins are off B2B disappointing results as they lost to the Blues and Flyers, the latter being particularly painful. It was an overtime loss (so at least they get the "loser's point") that saw the Flyers' two goals come w/ 19 seconds left in regulation and three seconds left in OT. The notion that Pittsburgh will now drop three straight won't be popular, but Carolina is legit and should probably have a better record than it does.
Right now, the Hurricanes are three points back of the Pens for third place in the Metro. Both would be playoff bound, however, as Carolina currently occupies the top Wild Card spot. But moving up to third in your division is huge. Not only does it guarantee a playoff spot (no WC needed!), but it allows allow you to avoid playing either division winner in the 1st round. The Canes have been streaking of late, going 7-2-1 their L10 games.
Carolina has the top shot differential in the league. On average, they outshoot their opponeny by 6.3 shots per game. I was impressed that they were actually able to win a game where they were outshot (Saturday vs. Buffalo), something that they rarely do. This is a team that was definitely "unlucky" early in the season, but they've gone 16-5-1 the L22 games. Pittsburgh won't have Malkin in the lineup tonight as he sustained an upper body injury Sunday vs. the Flyers. Last time these teams faced off, Carolina pulled off an impressive 4-0 shutout (on the road!), led by Curtis McElhinney's 28 saves. They'll win again here. 1* Carolina
Power Sports went 19-9 (68%) in last year's Tournament! Coming off a 2-0 SWEEP Sunday, he enters this year's Big Dance up an ASTONISHING $79,358 w/ ALL NCAAB! Furthermore, he SWEPT THE BOARD Monday, going 3-0!