Round Three betting edges: Pacers solid as ATS dog

Marc Lawrence | May 18, 2014 | ARCHIVE

One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2013-14 season winds its way to the finish line.

From our database, let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action since 1991, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…


You can blow out a good team once. Twice is not as likely.

As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 46-29-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.

Bring them in as a dog off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 15-5-1 ATS.


Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.

Teams with a better win percentage takings points off a loss are 22-17-1 ATS on the blind. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 21-12-1 ATS.

Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-5-1 ATS winning edge.


You can hold a good team down, but not for long.

Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.

That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-6-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-3 against the number.


Listed below are the best team trends for teams in Round Three of the post season.

Indiana: 17-8-2 ATS as a dog, including 4-1 ATS home.

Miami: 11-4 ATS off a loss, including 5-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.

Oklahoma City: 11-4 ATS when O/U total is 199 or greater, including 5-0 ATS off a SUATS loss.

San Antonio: 10-2 ATS away off a win, including 6-0 ATS off a SU underdog win.

There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.