Round Three betting edges: Pacers solid as ATS dog
One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2013-14 season winds its way to the finish line.
From our database, let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action since 1991, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…
DOWN BUT NOT OUT
You can blow out a good team once. Twice is not as likely.
As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 46-29-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.
Bring them in as a dog off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 15-5-1 ATS.
BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS
Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.
Teams with a better win percentage takings points off a loss are 22-17-1 ATS on the blind. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 21-12-1 ATS.
Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-5-1 ATS winning edge.
RUNNING ON EMPTY
You can hold a good team down, but not for long.
Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.
That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-6-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-3 against the number.
ITS WHAT’S TRENDING
Listed below are the best team trends for teams in Round Three of the post season.
Indiana: 17-8-2 ATS as a dog, including 4-1 ATS home.
Miami: 11-4 ATS off a loss, including 5-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.
Oklahoma City: 11-4 ATS when O/U total is 199 or greater, including 5-0 ATS off a SUATS loss.
San Antonio: 10-2 ATS away off a win, including 6-0 ATS off a SU underdog win.
There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.
- U (ARI at LAD)
- Power Sports
- July 29, 2016 - 10:10 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ Under 7.5 -105
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1* Under Diamondbacks/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The term "pitcher's park" has certainly applied to Dodger Stadium in 2016 as we've seen an average of just 6.9 runs per game scored here, fewest in all of baseball. The result of that is the Under has gone a remarkable 36-14 in Chavez Ravine. Welcoming in a weak opponent they should theoretically dominate, hopefully the Dodgers don't even play the bottom half of the ninth here (always a nice advantage to have). My recommendation here is on the Under.
We obviously don't want LA to score much either and fortunately for our case, their slumping lineup just managed only four runs total in two games vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Those games took place here at home and in seven of the last eight home games, the Dodgers have now been held to four runs or fewer. The embattled Zach Godley starts for Arizona and while his track record suggests he might struggle, I see him keeping a scuffling lineup somewhat in check.
Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda should take care of the rest. He has a 0.883 WHIP his L3 starts and he flat out dominated San Diego in his last home start, holding them to just one run on two hits over seven innings w/ a 13-0 KW rate. Maeda also held Arizona scoreless the lone time he faced them (back in April), allowing just five hits in 6 IP. The Under, true to form, cashed in all three games the one time the Dodgers have hosted the D'back this year and I see the trend continuing tonight. 1* Under Diamondbacks/Dodgers
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