Round Three betting edges: Pacers solid as ATS dog
One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2013-14 season winds its way to the finish line.
From our database, let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action since 1991, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…
DOWN BUT NOT OUT
You can blow out a good team once. Twice is not as likely.
As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 46-29-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.
Bring them in as a dog off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 15-5-1 ATS.
BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS
Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.
Teams with a better win percentage takings points off a loss are 22-17-1 ATS on the blind. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 21-12-1 ATS.
Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-5-1 ATS winning edge.
RUNNING ON EMPTY
You can hold a good team down, but not for long.
Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.
That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-6-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-3 against the number.
ITS WHAT’S TRENDING
Listed below are the best team trends for teams in Round Three of the post season.
Indiana: 17-8-2 ATS as a dog, including 4-1 ATS home.
Miami: 11-4 ATS off a loss, including 5-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.
Oklahoma City: 11-4 ATS when O/U total is 199 or greater, including 5-0 ATS off a SUATS loss.
San Antonio: 10-2 ATS away off a win, including 6-0 ATS off a SU underdog win.
There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.
- Jesse Schule
- March 27, 2015 - 7:15 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -8.5 -105 Gonzaga
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Gonzaga #Bulldogs.
According to bookmakers, the UCLA Bruins are the least likely of the remaining teams to win the NCAA Tournament. You can still get the Bruins at 100-1 odds at Westgate Superbook. The Bruins were very lucky to have even qualified for the tournament, and many experts were critical of the committee for selecting them. UCLA came into the tournament with a 2-8 record versus the RPI Top 50, and 4-11 away from Pauley Pavilion. If you look at the Bruin's schedule, the most impressive thing they've done is lose to Arizona. Some might say they finished the season strong by winning four of five prior to the tourney, but it's worth pointing out that all four of those wins came against bottom feeders of the Pac-12. They beat Washington and Washington State, and USC twice. The Trojans finished dead last in the conference with a record of 3-15.
After being gifted a one-point victory on a controversial goaltend call in their first round match versus SMU, they got a lucky draw against minnows UAB in the second round. I think their luck is going to run out here in the Sweet 16 against Gonzaga, a team with a lot to prove. Perhaps the fact that the Bulldogs have a history of early exits has contributed to why the line in this game is still in single digits. This year's team is even stronger than it was in past season's though, as evidenced by their 87-68 win over a very solid Iowa team in the second round. The two teams that eliminated Gonzaga in the last two years have each gone on to the Final Four (Wichita State and Arizona). UCLA doesn't come anywhere near either of those teams in terms of talent. When these teams met during the regular season, the Bruins lost to Gonzaga by 13 points on their home court. I see no reason why they should expect a better result here in Houston.
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