What are the Odds? Betting Against the Consensus
Each week of the college football and NFL season, as the days progress from when the opening lines are first released, a consensus is formed as to which teams the betting public is heavily favoring. Right up until game time, the percentages are constantly being recalculated to reflect a confidence level in a team’s ability to cover the spread. Sometimes these percentages can soar into the mid-70s , but anything over 65 percent favoring one side over the other indicates a pretty strong vote of confidence for that particular matchup.
Going back to last week’s games starting with college football, there were seven matchups where the consensus was over 65 percent for a particular side. Boston College had the highest percentage at 71.25 that it would cover as a seven-point road favorite against Army. It went on to lose that game outright, 34-31. Air Force has the next highest percentage at 69.57 as a nine-point home favorite against Navy, and it lost straight-up as well, 28-21. If you would have bet one unit against the consensus in all seven of these games, you would have walked away with a record of 5-2 and $280 in your pocket.
Turning to last week in the NFL, there were four games where the consensus favoring one side over the other was greater than 65 percent. The consensus was all over the Packers at 73.08 percent as 6.5-point road favorites against Indianapolis, and we all know how that turned out. The next highest pick was 70.75 percent on Baltimore as a six-point road favorite against Kansas City. The Ravens could only manage a three-point win. Chicago came through with flying colors as a 70.57 percent consensus pick with a romp over Jacksonville, but Cincinnati was another consensus casualty at 66.17 percent with a 17-13 loss to Miami as a three-point home favorite.
That same one-unit wager against the consensus in all four of these NFL games would have netted you a quick $190. If you would have bet the opposite way of the consensus for all 11 of these high-confidence games, your weekend profit would have been $470.
- Power Sports
- February 13, 2016 - 3:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -8 -110 Oakland
1* Oakland (3:00 ET): Judging by the total here, it should be points a plenty as Green Bay & Oakland hook for a second time this season in Horizon League action. The first meeting was certainly one to remember. Oakland prevailed 111-95 and no, there was no OT. Off a rare loss & catching the the GB's playing a 5th straight road game, take 'em again.
Things had been going quite well for the Golden Grizzlies in conference play. That was until running into Milwaukee on Thursday. There, they lost 93-85 (as 6.5-point favorites) as despite the high score, they actually didn't shoot the ball well (just 39.5 percent). But making shots clearly was no issue in the first meeting w/ Green Bay as Oakland finished at 57.1 percent en route to a historic offensive performance. While certainly a nadir defensively, GB has had issues all year at that end of the floor. They come into Saturday giving up 81.8 PPG for the year.
Green Bay is off a minor upset, 86-85 in Detroit as two-point dogs. But as mentioned above, this will be the Phoenix's FIFTH straight road game, not to mention second in three days. With Oakland playing a second straight time at home, it'a a clear advantage for them and note the Golden Grizzlies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in Saturday games this season. My recommendation here would be to lay the points. 1* Oakland