What are the Odds? Betting Against the Consensus
Each week of the college football and NFL season, as the days progress from when the opening lines are first released, a consensus is formed as to which teams the betting public is heavily favoring. Right up until game time, the percentages are constantly being recalculated to reflect a confidence level in a team’s ability to cover the spread. Sometimes these percentages can soar into the mid-70s , but anything over 65 percent favoring one side over the other indicates a pretty strong vote of confidence for that particular matchup.
Going back to last week’s games starting with college football, there were seven matchups where the consensus was over 65 percent for a particular side. Boston College had the highest percentage at 71.25 that it would cover as a seven-point road favorite against Army. It went on to lose that game outright, 34-31. Air Force has the next highest percentage at 69.57 as a nine-point home favorite against Navy, and it lost straight-up as well, 28-21. If you would have bet one unit against the consensus in all seven of these games, you would have walked away with a record of 5-2 and $280 in your pocket.
Turning to last week in the NFL, there were four games where the consensus favoring one side over the other was greater than 65 percent. The consensus was all over the Packers at 73.08 percent as 6.5-point road favorites against Indianapolis, and we all know how that turned out. The next highest pick was 70.75 percent on Baltimore as a six-point road favorite against Kansas City. The Ravens could only manage a three-point win. Chicago came through with flying colors as a 70.57 percent consensus pick with a romp over Jacksonville, but Cincinnati was another consensus casualty at 66.17 percent with a 17-13 loss to Miami as a three-point home favorite.
That same one-unit wager against the consensus in all four of these NFL games would have netted you a quick $190. If you would have bet the opposite way of the consensus for all 11 of these high-confidence games, your weekend profit would have been $470.
- O (MIN at CHW)
- AAA Sports
- June 29, 2016 - 8:10 PM
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ Over 10 -104
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1* Free Play OVER Twins/White Sox.
The visitors hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco, who gave up four runs off ten hits with four walks to just one K over six innings in a loss to the light-hitting Phillies on Thursday. His four walks were a season high and his one K was a season low. Note that Nolasco has been particularly horrible in this spot all year, going 1-3 with an atrocious 6.47 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side counters with the beleagured James Shields (2-9, 6.22) who comes in off perhaps his best outing of the year, giving up three runs off five hits with four walks over five innings vs. the Red Sox on Thursday. His 9:17 K:BB ratio over his last five starts is one of the worst in MLB history. No need to overthink this one, with these two volatile hurlers going head-to-head on Wednesday night, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
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