What are the Odds? Betting Against the Consensus
Each week of the college football and NFL season, as the days progress from when the opening lines are first released, a consensus is formed as to which teams the betting public is heavily favoring. Right up until game time, the percentages are constantly being recalculated to reflect a confidence level in a team’s ability to cover the spread. Sometimes these percentages can soar into the mid-70s , but anything over 65 percent favoring one side over the other indicates a pretty strong vote of confidence for that particular matchup.
Going back to last week’s games starting with college football, there were seven matchups where the consensus was over 65 percent for a particular side. Boston College had the highest percentage at 71.25 that it would cover as a seven-point road favorite against Army. It went on to lose that game outright, 34-31. Air Force has the next highest percentage at 69.57 as a nine-point home favorite against Navy, and it lost straight-up as well, 28-21. If you would have bet one unit against the consensus in all seven of these games, you would have walked away with a record of 5-2 and $280 in your pocket.
Turning to last week in the NFL, there were four games where the consensus favoring one side over the other was greater than 65 percent. The consensus was all over the Packers at 73.08 percent as 6.5-point road favorites against Indianapolis, and we all know how that turned out. The next highest pick was 70.75 percent on Baltimore as a six-point road favorite against Kansas City. The Ravens could only manage a three-point win. Chicago came through with flying colors as a 70.57 percent consensus pick with a romp over Jacksonville, but Cincinnati was another consensus casualty at 66.17 percent with a 17-13 loss to Miami as a three-point home favorite.
That same one-unit wager against the consensus in all four of these NFL games would have netted you a quick $190. If you would have bet the opposite way of the consensus for all 11 of these high-confidence games, your weekend profit would have been $470.
- U (STL at WAS)
- April 18, 2014 - 7:05 PM
- Art Aronson
- Offered at:
- bookmaker @ Under 7 -116
1* Free Play “under” Cardinals/Nationals.
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The last time these two pitchers squared off it was a 2-0 win for the Cardinals. I think this contest sets up nicely as another low scoring game. The Nationals will send Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.50 ERA) to the hill and the Nats are looking to bounce back from yesterday’s drubbing at the hands of the Cards. Gonzalez is looking to bounce back himself after giving up six runs to the Braves in a loss on Sunday. Gonzalez has always been stingy in games vs St. Louis though, a career 2.42 ERA with a 1-1 record against it. The Cardinals will counter with hard throwing right hander Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.89 ERA). Wacha has pitched well this season, giving up just 4 runs in 19 innings pitched. The youngster delivered a gem the last time he faced the Nationals, giving up zero runs in a playoff game last season. The Nationals couldn’t get to Adam Wainwright yesterday but it hardly mattered as the Cards beat up on the Nats worst pitcher. While it doesn’t get much easier today with Wacha, I think Gio will keep this one competitive. Two of the last three games Gonzalez has pitched against the Cards the lower number has hit. Look for another low scoring game here. Consider the “under.”