What are the Odds? Betting Against the Consensus
Each week of the college football and NFL season, as the days progress from when the opening lines are first released, a consensus is formed as to which teams the betting public is heavily favoring. Right up until game time, the percentages are constantly being recalculated to reflect a confidence level in a team’s ability to cover the spread. Sometimes these percentages can soar into the mid-70s , but anything over 65 percent favoring one side over the other indicates a pretty strong vote of confidence for that particular matchup.
Going back to last week’s games starting with college football, there were seven matchups where the consensus was over 65 percent for a particular side. Boston College had the highest percentage at 71.25 that it would cover as a seven-point road favorite against Army. It went on to lose that game outright, 34-31. Air Force has the next highest percentage at 69.57 as a nine-point home favorite against Navy, and it lost straight-up as well, 28-21. If you would have bet one unit against the consensus in all seven of these games, you would have walked away with a record of 5-2 and $280 in your pocket.
Turning to last week in the NFL, there were four games where the consensus favoring one side over the other was greater than 65 percent. The consensus was all over the Packers at 73.08 percent as 6.5-point road favorites against Indianapolis, and we all know how that turned out. The next highest pick was 70.75 percent on Baltimore as a six-point road favorite against Kansas City. The Ravens could only manage a three-point win. Chicago came through with flying colors as a 70.57 percent consensus pick with a romp over Jacksonville, but Cincinnati was another consensus casualty at 66.17 percent with a 17-13 loss to Miami as a three-point home favorite.
That same one-unit wager against the consensus in all four of these NFL games would have netted you a quick $190. If you would have bet the opposite way of the consensus for all 11 of these high-confidence games, your weekend profit would have been $470.
- AAA Sports
- May 27, 2015 - 8:00 PM
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ -140 Chicago
This is a 1* Free Play on the Chicago Blackhawks.
I had a big play on the Blackhawks in Game 4 and then came back with the Ducks as a free pick in Game 5. If you didn't get a chance to see my analysis on Anaheim, I believe it's worth a quick read:
I played the Blackhawks in Game 4 and obviously feel pretty good about the win after Chicago fell apart late to let the Ducks back into it. Anaheim would take a 4-3 lead late in the third period with the second-fastest three goals in Stanley Cup Playoff history: "If you look at all four games [in this series] they've been all tremendous hockey games," Anaheim coach Bruce Boudreau said afterwards. "One has to lose, one has to win. Usually when one of the teams makes a mistake, a good team capitalizes on it. That's what happened. We had our chances again to win it, but it didn't happen. So we'll just regroup. Now it's a 2-out-of-3. Let's go after it." As Boudreau said, this has turned into a three-game series and remember, after the Blackhawks won 3-2 in Game 2 at the Honda Center, Anaheim would respond with a 2-1 win in Game 3: "I think we're right there," Cogliano said. "I don't think they overwhelmed us with too much. I thought we had our looks. They had the more power plays and they converted at the end of the game to tie it up. To score three goals when you're down 3-1 speaks to the team, and there is no hanging our heads. Obviously it is a bad feeling, but we've got to battle back." Note that Anaheim has been money in the bank in this spot all year as well, 25-9 (+13.2 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game, 19-9 (+9.3 units) after allowing four goals or more and 5-2 (+2.7 units) in its last seven when tied in a playoff series. The price is right, consider a second look at the DUCKS in Game 5.
What more can be said about these two teams at this point that hasn't literally been said a million times by all of the talking heads out there? If you're watching the NHL in late May and June, then you are more than just a casual fan and their strengths and weaknesses are well recorded. However, home ice advantage simply can't be overlooked in this case; also note that Chicago is already 2-0 (+2 units) when trailing in a playoff series this year and 14-7 (+2.9 units) after allowing four goals or more this season. A great situational play in my professional opinion, the price is right and the home side BLACKHAWKS are definitely worthy of a second look in this situation.
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