What are the Odds? Betting Against the Consensus
Each week of the college football and NFL season, as the days progress from when the opening lines are first released, a consensus is formed as to which teams the betting public is heavily favoring. Right up until game time, the percentages are constantly being recalculated to reflect a confidence level in a team’s ability to cover the spread. Sometimes these percentages can soar into the mid-70s , but anything over 65 percent favoring one side over the other indicates a pretty strong vote of confidence for that particular matchup.
Going back to last week’s games starting with college football, there were seven matchups where the consensus was over 65 percent for a particular side. Boston College had the highest percentage at 71.25 that it would cover as a seven-point road favorite against Army. It went on to lose that game outright, 34-31. Air Force has the next highest percentage at 69.57 as a nine-point home favorite against Navy, and it lost straight-up as well, 28-21. If you would have bet one unit against the consensus in all seven of these games, you would have walked away with a record of 5-2 and $280 in your pocket.
Turning to last week in the NFL, there were four games where the consensus favoring one side over the other was greater than 65 percent. The consensus was all over the Packers at 73.08 percent as 6.5-point road favorites against Indianapolis, and we all know how that turned out. The next highest pick was 70.75 percent on Baltimore as a six-point road favorite against Kansas City. The Ravens could only manage a three-point win. Chicago came through with flying colors as a 70.57 percent consensus pick with a romp over Jacksonville, but Cincinnati was another consensus casualty at 66.17 percent with a 17-13 loss to Miami as a three-point home favorite.
That same one-unit wager against the consensus in all four of these NFL games would have netted you a quick $190. If you would have bet the opposite way of the consensus for all 11 of these high-confidence games, your weekend profit would have been $470.
- March 6, 2015 - 8:00 PM
- Matt Fargo
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -6.5 -105 Houston
Fargo WON AGAIN last night in the NBA, is now on a REMARKABLE 25-10-1 NBA RAMPAGE and going back further, he is on an INSANE 34-15-1 NBA run! It doesn't stop there though as he is having a FANTASTIC NBA season overall as he is showing a MAMMOTH +$18,300 Profit YTD! Matt has OWNED the NBA for years and has THREE Winners tonight!
The Rockets have lost two straight games and will be out to snap that tonight as they host the fading Pistons. Houston lost at Atlanta without James Harden in the lineup because of his suspension and it followed that up with a home loss on Wednesday against Memphis. It was a rare second straight loss as the Rockets have been an outstanding bounce back team this season, going 14-5 straight up and against the number following a loss. They have dropped back-to-back games only four times and avoided a three-game skid each time by winning those follow up games by an average of 14.8 ppg. The Pistons are riding a four-game losing streak and going back, they are 6-11 over their last 17 games to fall three and half games back in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. After winning seven straight games on the road starting late December, the Pistons have dropped seven of their last eight on the highway. They were able to cover the first two of this roadtrip but they head to Houston at a bad time as the Rockets will also be out for revenge following a 13-point loss in Detroit just over a month ago. Play (816) Houston Rockets