Smart Box Series: Coaching Down The Stretch
By Marc Lawrence
The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.
It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. More time often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.
The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure… whichever the case may be.
From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis). All results are ATS (Against The Spread).
Home: KUBIAK (Hou) 10-4
Away: SMITH M (Atl) 6-2
Favorite: KUBIAK (Hou) 5-1
Dog: McCARTHY (GB) 7-0
Home: GARRETT (Dal), MULARKEY (Jax) 1-3
Away: WHISENHUNT (Az) 0-8
Fav: CARROLL (Sea) 1-6
Dog: WHISENHUNT (Az) 3-6
For a comprehensive listing of every coach in every role – including their absolute BEST and WORST roles – be sure to check out Marc’s complete ‘Coaching Down The Stretch’ article on this site …
- New Mexico
- Dave Cokin
- October 1, 2016 - 4:00 PM
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ -7.5 -106 New Mexico
This is a 1* free play on Saturday's MWC game between San Jose State and New Mexico.
Kenny Potter's status for this game is uncertain. The San Jose QB was unable to go against Iowa State and he's very iffy as of now for this week's game. He has a leg injury that won't require surgery but if the swelling doesn't subside, he won't be able to play. If that's the case, then it's freshman Josh Love, and the rookie really struggled at Iowa State.
Beyond that, the Spartans have absolutely horrific on defense. They've been outgained by a whopping 547 yards in the losses to Tulsa, Utah and San Jose State. The defensive rushing stats in those games were abysmal, 5.5 yards per carry and all three opponents went run-heavy on San Jose. That will definitely be the case Saturday as New Mexico prefers to run out of their option as much as possible.
I think we're catching a good spot here, as New Mexico has had an extra week to prep and should be extremely motivated after losing two games they really should have won. The bye week should be a real plus coming out of those two tough losses, and New Mexico also has a revenge motive from a poor showing against the Spartans last season.
It looks like a good matchup for the Lobos in terms of strength vs. weakness, and if Porter is unable to play, this is a bargain price in my opinion even with the bump from where it opened on Sunday night. I'll therefore go ahead and lay it right now with New Mexico.