The First Round Bye In The NFL Playoffs
Question: It's just common sense to believe that a first round bye in the NFL playoffs is a good thing, right? The extra week off to prepare, coupled with friendly confines has to be an advantage both for the team AND for bettors.
Or is this "tried and true" handicapping angle just "smoke and mirrors"?
Let's take a look over the last five years to find out:
2008 Opponent/Result Divisional Round SU ATS
Tennessee Titans L 10-13 vs Baltimore 3 pt fav L L
Pittsburgh Steelers W 35-24 vs San Diego 6.5 pt fav W W
New York Giants L 11-23 vs Philadelphia 4 pt fav L L
Carolina Panthers L 13-33 vs Arizona 10 pt fav L L
Indianapolis Colts W 20-3 vs Baltimore 6.5 pt fav W W
San Diego Chargers L 14-17 vs NY Jets 7.5 pt fav L L
New Orleans Saints W 45-14 vs Arizona 7 pt fav W W
Minnesota Vikings W 34-3 vs Dallas 2.5 pt fav W W
New England Patriots L 21-28 vs NY Jets 9.5 pt fav L L
Pittsburgh Steelers W 31-24 vs Baltimore 3.5 pt fav W W
Atlanta Falcons L 21-48 vs Green Bay 1 pt fav L L
Chicago Bears W 35-24 vs Seattle 10 pt fav W W
New England Patriots W 45-10 vs Denver 14 pt fav W W
Baltimore Ravens W 20-13 vs Houston 7.5 pt fav W L
Green Bay Packers L 20-37 vs NY Giants 8 pt fav L L
San Francisco 49ers W 36-32 vs New Orleans 3.5 pt dog W W
Denver Broncos L 38-35 vs Baltimore 9 pt fav L L
New England Patriots W 41-28 vs Houston 9.5 pt fav W W
Atlanta Falcons W 30-28 vs Seattle 1 pt fav W W
San Francisco 49ers W 45-31 vs Green Bay 3 pt fav W W
Totals: 12 SU W's/8 SU L's 11 ATS W's/9 ATS L's
Conclusion: Don't believe the hype!
Over the last five years, attaining a first round bye is not as advantageous as we've collectively been led to believe, especially for the bettor.
(It's interesting to note: if a team that's earned a first-round bye loses SU, it also loses ATS. And if it wins SU, it also wins ATS. The only time in the last five years that this trend was broken was in 2011 when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans 20-13 SU, but failed to cover the 7.5 point spread.)
- March 7, 2014 - 9:00 PM
- Jesse Schule
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ -145 Calgary
HE DID IT AGAIN!
The Iceman cashed in his GAME of the WEEK on the SPUR$ last night, putting him at a PERFECT 10-0 with his last 10 NBA plays. He's delivered 11-STRAIGHT WINNING CARDS, showing a profit of +$15,952.
This is a Free #NHL play on the Calgary #Flames.
The Isles lost in overtime in Edmonton last night, just two days after beating the Jets in overtime. They play on back to back nights, as well as their third game in four nights at Calgary Friday.
The Flames are coming off a 4-1 home victory over the Sens on Wednesday, with rookie goaltender Joni Ortio stopping 30-of-31 shots. Ortio has been impressive in each of his first two starts for the Flames, and we should see him back between the pipes versus the Isles.
After opening up a 2-0 lead in the first two periods of last night's game, the Isles ran out of steam in the third, allowing the Oilers to force OT, and eventually win on a Taylor Hall goal. It appears that fatigue has finally set in.
The Flames 20 year old Finnish prospect Markus Granlund scored his first NHL goal in the win over Ottawa, and he's getting a chance to play here as the season winds down, making the most of it.
There isn't much incentive for the Isles to play with any intensity here tonight, so don't expect them to be battling hard for loose pucks in the corner. Calgary should be able to out-work the visitors, giving the home crowd something to cheer about.
Take the Flames.
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