The First Round Bye In The NFL Playoffs
Question: It's just common sense to believe that a first round bye in the NFL playoffs is a good thing, right? The extra week off to prepare, coupled with friendly confines has to be an advantage both for the team AND for bettors.
Or is this "tried and true" handicapping angle just "smoke and mirrors"?
Let's take a look over the last five years to find out:
2008 Opponent/Result Divisional Round SU ATS
Tennessee Titans L 10-13 vs Baltimore 3 pt fav L L
Pittsburgh Steelers W 35-24 vs San Diego 6.5 pt fav W W
New York Giants L 11-23 vs Philadelphia 4 pt fav L L
Carolina Panthers L 13-33 vs Arizona 10 pt fav L L
Indianapolis Colts W 20-3 vs Baltimore 6.5 pt fav W W
San Diego Chargers L 14-17 vs NY Jets 7.5 pt fav L L
New Orleans Saints W 45-14 vs Arizona 7 pt fav W W
Minnesota Vikings W 34-3 vs Dallas 2.5 pt fav W W
New England Patriots L 21-28 vs NY Jets 9.5 pt fav L L
Pittsburgh Steelers W 31-24 vs Baltimore 3.5 pt fav W W
Atlanta Falcons L 21-48 vs Green Bay 1 pt fav L L
Chicago Bears W 35-24 vs Seattle 10 pt fav W W
New England Patriots W 45-10 vs Denver 14 pt fav W W
Baltimore Ravens W 20-13 vs Houston 7.5 pt fav W L
Green Bay Packers L 20-37 vs NY Giants 8 pt fav L L
San Francisco 49ers W 36-32 vs New Orleans 3.5 pt dog W W
Denver Broncos L 38-35 vs Baltimore 9 pt fav L L
New England Patriots W 41-28 vs Houston 9.5 pt fav W W
Atlanta Falcons W 30-28 vs Seattle 1 pt fav W W
San Francisco 49ers W 45-31 vs Green Bay 3 pt fav W W
Totals: 12 SU W's/8 SU L's 11 ATS W's/9 ATS L's
Conclusion: Don't believe the hype!
Over the last five years, attaining a first round bye is not as advantageous as we've collectively been led to believe, especially for the bettor.
(It's interesting to note: if a team that's earned a first-round bye loses SU, it also loses ATS. And if it wins SU, it also wins ATS. The only time in the last five years that this trend was broken was in 2011 when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans 20-13 SU, but failed to cover the 7.5 point spread.)
- O (DUKE at ARMY)
- Matt Fargo
- October 10, 2015 - 12:00 PM
- Offered at:
- top bet @ Over 47 -110
This is a 1* Free Play on the Duke/Army Over.
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for this game. Duke is off to a 3-2 start this season as the offense has been inconsistent but the defense has picked up the slack by allowing just 269.8 ypg and 10.6 ppg, good for 9th and 5th in the country respectively. Because of the stop unit, the Blue Devils have stayed below the total in all five of their games this season. This is not a particularly good matchup however for another low scoring game as the offense should have no problem scoring a bunch here. The offense was held to 10 points three games back against Northwestern and nine points against Boston College last time out and those are two of the top three scoring defenses in the country. In comparison, Army is ranked 82nd in scoring defense so Duke can get back to normal here. The Black Knights have had a tough luck season as they are 1-4 with the four losses coming by 2, 5, 3 and 6 points with the last coming against Penn St. Even though the schedule has been pretty difficult, they are averaging a solid 27.6 ppg so even coming close to that here will push this one way over as we can expect Duke to get its fair share of points. The over is 7-2-1 in the Blue Devils last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while the over is 11-5 in the Black Knights last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play Over (321) Duke Blue Devils/(322) Army Black Knights
Fargo is off to a profitable start on the gridiron this season as he has posted SIZEABLE profits of +$14,060 overall! In college football, he is a SIZZLING 27-22 +$3,470 YTD after THREE of FIVE Winning Weeks and going back he is a MASSIVE +$16,021 in CFB since 2013! He is ready for a huge Week Six as he has Winners Thursday, Friday and Saturday! Do not miss any of it!
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