NBA Championship After 1 Month: Where's the Value?
Last week I reviewed some of the surprises around the league after one month of play.
This week I want to look at the most current odds to win the NBA Championship, and see if we can find any value amongst the numbers. I'm not personally playing or recommending any of these plays at the moment. But they're still interesting to have a look at.
These are the most current lines, as of December 2nd.
Miami Heat 19/10
Los Angeles Lakers 15/4
Oklahoma City Thunder 9/2
Los Angeles Clippers 12/1
San Antonio Spurs 12/1
New York Knicks 16/1
Chicago Bulls 18/1
Memphis Grizzlies 18/1
Boston Celtics 25/1
Brooklyn Nets 33/1
Dallas Mavericks 40/1
Denver Nuggets 50/1
Indiana Pacers 50/1
Philadelphia 76ers 66/1
Golden State Warriors 90/1
Atlanta Hawks 100/1
Houston Rockets 100/1
Milwaukee Bucks 100/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 100/1
Utah Jazz 100/1
Portland Trail Blazers 150/1
New Orleans Hornets 250/1
Phoenix Suns 250/1
Orlando Magic 300/1
Sacramento Kings 300/1
Toronto Raptors 300/1
Charlotte Bobcats 500/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 500/1
Detroit Pistons 500/1
Washington Wizards 500/1
I'm going to steer clear of the favorites, and choose some dark-horses from each division which will hold some value for hedging purposes in the postseason.
This division is dominated by the Knicks and Nets early. However, the season is just under way, and the Sixers and Celtics will definitely have something to say about who wins what at the end.
I'd say Boston at 25/1 clearly offers some value. While down a key piece in Ray Allen, remember this is a team that pushed the Heat to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference finals just last year. It's one of the better coached clubs in the league, and it feels it has something to prove this season.
While it's been reported that All-Star Derrick Rose won't be ready to play until February, I still believe that Chicago's current line-up has enough "fire-power", and defensive prowess to keep it in the hunt in what is turning out to be a pretty evenly matched division after one month. When Rose returns, this team can only get better, and at 18/1, the Bulls definitely offer up some great investment value.
The only team in this division that will give the Heat and the rest of the Eastern Conference a race will be the Atlanta Hawks. As of writing this they sit just 2.5 games back of Miami at 9-5. They're one team that definitely enjoys a home court advantage, having jumped out to an early 5-3 SU record in front of the home town crowd thus far. At 100/1, for those interested in taking a longshot with a chance at a big pay out, Atlanta is well worth a look.
Memphis is in a neck and neck battle with San Antonio, and these two teams will be locked in a war for the division title until the end of the year. The Spurs are the fav to win the Southwest at 12/1, but Memphis is being offered at 18/1. The Grizzlies are 8-1 at home as of writing. You should definitely consider a second look at Memphis from the Southwest.
The Northwest is dominated by Oklahoma City, and there's no doubt it will be contending for the Western Conference crown at the end of the year. So where's the value in this division? Utah (100-1), Denver (50-1), Minnesota (100-1) and Portland (150-1) are all intriguing propositions. I'm going to wait another month before recommending one of these dark-horses.
The Lakers sit at 8-8, and are 15-4 favs to win the NBA Championship. The Golden State Warriors are 10-6 right now, and are 90-1 to win the Championship. I'm definitely recommending a second look at the Warriors.
Check back in next week for some more NBA insights!
- February 27, 2015 - 7:30 PM
- Bryan Power
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 11.5 -105 Orlando
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1* Orlando (7:35 ET): I often like to back larger underdogs in games w/ lower totals (sub-200 pts) and that's the case here as we get a Magic team that's been playing a lot better since firing HC Jacque Vaughn. Last time out, they were oh so close to recording a fourth straight victory before losing at home to Miami in overtime. Poor play down the stretch, free throw shooting in particular, cost them an eight point lead in the final minute of regulation.
But still this is a Magic team that's gone 5-2-2 ATS its L9 games and they are 3-1 ATS this season when taking this many from the linesmakers. They have either beaten Atlanta or kept it close each of the past five matchups dating back to last season, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in those contests. This includes an outright win at home and a six-point loss back in December.
Atlanta had started to show signs of slowing down (lost 3 of 4) prior to winning B2B games. I was on them Wednesday vs. Dallas, but they were catching the Mavs w/out rest there. As a favorite of this size, the Hawks are just 1-3 ATS this season. Orlando's defensive numbers have been quite impressive the last four games, holding opponents to an average of just 89.5 PPG and remember that's w/ Wednesday's going into OT. A similar defensive effort here should easily keep them within the number. 1* Orlando
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