NBA Championship After 1 Month: Where's the Value?
Last week I reviewed some of the surprises around the league after one month of play.
This week I want to look at the most current odds to win the NBA Championship, and see if we can find any value amongst the numbers. I'm not personally playing or recommending any of these plays at the moment. But they're still interesting to have a look at.
These are the most current lines, as of December 2nd.
Miami Heat 19/10
Los Angeles Lakers 15/4
Oklahoma City Thunder 9/2
Los Angeles Clippers 12/1
San Antonio Spurs 12/1
New York Knicks 16/1
Chicago Bulls 18/1
Memphis Grizzlies 18/1
Boston Celtics 25/1
Brooklyn Nets 33/1
Dallas Mavericks 40/1
Denver Nuggets 50/1
Indiana Pacers 50/1
Philadelphia 76ers 66/1
Golden State Warriors 90/1
Atlanta Hawks 100/1
Houston Rockets 100/1
Milwaukee Bucks 100/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 100/1
Utah Jazz 100/1
Portland Trail Blazers 150/1
New Orleans Hornets 250/1
Phoenix Suns 250/1
Orlando Magic 300/1
Sacramento Kings 300/1
Toronto Raptors 300/1
Charlotte Bobcats 500/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 500/1
Detroit Pistons 500/1
Washington Wizards 500/1
I'm going to steer clear of the favorites, and choose some dark-horses from each division which will hold some value for hedging purposes in the postseason.
This division is dominated by the Knicks and Nets early. However, the season is just under way, and the Sixers and Celtics will definitely have something to say about who wins what at the end.
I'd say Boston at 25/1 clearly offers some value. While down a key piece in Ray Allen, remember this is a team that pushed the Heat to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference finals just last year. It's one of the better coached clubs in the league, and it feels it has something to prove this season.
While it's been reported that All-Star Derrick Rose won't be ready to play until February, I still believe that Chicago's current line-up has enough "fire-power", and defensive prowess to keep it in the hunt in what is turning out to be a pretty evenly matched division after one month. When Rose returns, this team can only get better, and at 18/1, the Bulls definitely offer up some great investment value.
The only team in this division that will give the Heat and the rest of the Eastern Conference a race will be the Atlanta Hawks. As of writing this they sit just 2.5 games back of Miami at 9-5. They're one team that definitely enjoys a home court advantage, having jumped out to an early 5-3 SU record in front of the home town crowd thus far. At 100/1, for those interested in taking a longshot with a chance at a big pay out, Atlanta is well worth a look.
Memphis is in a neck and neck battle with San Antonio, and these two teams will be locked in a war for the division title until the end of the year. The Spurs are the fav to win the Southwest at 12/1, but Memphis is being offered at 18/1. The Grizzlies are 8-1 at home as of writing. You should definitely consider a second look at Memphis from the Southwest.
The Northwest is dominated by Oklahoma City, and there's no doubt it will be contending for the Western Conference crown at the end of the year. So where's the value in this division? Utah (100-1), Denver (50-1), Minnesota (100-1) and Portland (150-1) are all intriguing propositions. I'm going to wait another month before recommending one of these dark-horses.
The Lakers sit at 8-8, and are 15-4 favs to win the NBA Championship. The Golden State Warriors are 10-6 right now, and are 90-1 to win the Championship. I'm definitely recommending a second look at the Warriors.
Check back in next week for some more NBA insights!
- LA Dodgers
- Larry Ness
- June 30, 2015 - 9:40 PM
- Offered at:
- williamhill @ -115 LA Dodgers
I want NO part of De La Rosa against LA (12.50 ERA in two tries TY) or an Arizona team which LA has beaten 23 of the L30 meetings...
My free play is on the LA Dodgers at 9;40 ET.
The Dodgers scored six runs on 10 hits Monday night but Arizona overcame deficits of 4-0 and 6-4 to win 10-6. LA had been 26-1 when scoring at least six runs. LA had allowed just 11 runs during the first seven games of its 10-game road trip but the D'backs almost equaled that total in the opener of a three-game set Monday, as Arizona pushed across 10 runs over its final four at-bats in the 10-6 victory, halting a stretch of SEVEN straight losses to the Dodgers.
The teams are back at it tonight, as Carlos Frias (5-5, 4.31 ERA) squares off against Rubby De La Rosa (6-3, 4.69 ERA). De La Rosa has faced off with all four of the Arizona's divisional opponents in his last four outings. He's had no problems with San Francisco, San Diego and Colorado from June 14-25, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in that span. Opposing batters hit just .222 over those three contests with a .547 OPS and De La Rosa walked only one in seven innings while allowing one run Thursday in a 6-4 loss at Colorado.
However, back on June 8, De La Rosa (a former Dodger) got 'rocked' in Chavez Ravine, allowing 10 hits, one walk and nine ERs is just five innings of a 9-3 loss to the Dodgers. It was reminiscent of his May 1 start in LA, when he allowed three hits, five walks and five ERs over five innings on an 8-0 loss to the Dodgers. That's 10 IP, 13 hits allowed, four walks and 14 ERs for a 12.60 ERA against his former team in two meetings this year!
I want NO part of De La Rosa here or for that matter the D'backs, as prior to last night, the Dodgers had won SEVEN straight and 23 of their previous 29 against Arizona. Frias had gone 0-3 during a four-start stretch before defeating the Chicago Cubs in his last outings, when he pitched five shutout innings against Chicago and allowed seven hits and three walks to land his second victory (4-0) in his last nine starts.
Frias pitched opposite De La Rosa in the May 1 meeting and also took down Arizona on June 9, 3-1. His 'line' is 12 IP, with one ER allowed for an 0.75 ERA In the two starts vs the D'backs here in 2015. A concern here is with Frias' endurance, as he has gone more than six innings in only THREE of 11 starts this season and has not reached 90 pitches in any of his last four appearances. That could become a problem considering LA's fatigued bullpen, as SIX Dodgers relievers combined for 107 pitches and allowed all 10 runs Monday after Mike Bolsinger exited after four innings with flu-like symptoms.
That said, I repeat, I want NO part of De La Rosa against LA or an Arizona team which LA has beaten 23 of the last 30 meetings!
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