Smart Box Series: High Expectations
By Marc Lawrence
When Alabama defeated Florida, 28-21, to win the first ever SEC championship game in 1992, it signaled the start of Division-1 college football conference title games.
This week finds a total of six FBS conference championship games on tap, with no less than four teams each owning one loss on the season.
Satisfyingly enough, these four one-time losers – all 11-1 on the year - find themselves paired against one another as upstart Kent State squares off against Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, while Alabama meets Georgia in the SEC championship game.
In addition to the pressure of being a defending national champion looking to get back to the BCS Championship Game, Alabama must also overcome exceedingly high expectations of its own.
The staggering effect of what happens in conference championship games with teams who have dominated on the playing field the last two seasons is eye-opening, to say the least.
Our database confirms the notion, finding that teams in conference title games who managed to win 19 or more of their last 22 games are just 6-15-2 ATS when installed as favorites in these games.
Worse, when favored by 21 or less points, and playing off a win of 3 or more points, these ’pips’ dip to 1-14-1 ATS in these title game roles.
The Tide may be high in Tuscaloosa these days but expectancy of rewarding their backers is low this week.
- O (PIT at OAK)
- AAA Sports
- July 1, 2016 - 10:05 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ Over 8 -105
UN~BE~LIEVABLE! AAA Sports is coming off ANOTHER winning day, now 7-1 (88%) all plays L3 days and a STAGGERING +$12,056 w/ ALL picks L9 days! MLB continues to be a Summer Time CASH COW! After ANOTHER winner on the ChiSox on on Thursday afternoon, AAA enters the final weekday on a MONUMENTAL 102-74 +$14,537 Y-T-D run! YOU IN ON THIS?!
1* Free Play OVER Pirates/A’s.
The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Locke (7-5, 5.12 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Dodgers on Saturday, giving up one run off five hits while stirking out four over seven innings to earn the win. We’ll caution reading too much into the performance though, as Locke is a poor 2-4 with a ballooned 7.36 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Sonny Gray, who gave up two runs off six hits with a walk while stirking out three over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Angels on Sunday. Home field has been anything but an advantage for Gray this year, he’s 2-3 with a poor 4.75 ERA in Oakland thus far. With these two inconsistent starters going head-to-head on Friday night, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
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