Smart Box Series: High Expectations
By Marc Lawrence
When Alabama defeated Florida, 28-21, to win the first ever SEC championship game in 1992, it signaled the start of Division-1 college football conference title games.
This week finds a total of six FBS conference championship games on tap, with no less than four teams each owning one loss on the season.
Satisfyingly enough, these four one-time losers – all 11-1 on the year - find themselves paired against one another as upstart Kent State squares off against Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, while Alabama meets Georgia in the SEC championship game.
In addition to the pressure of being a defending national champion looking to get back to the BCS Championship Game, Alabama must also overcome exceedingly high expectations of its own.
The staggering effect of what happens in conference championship games with teams who have dominated on the playing field the last two seasons is eye-opening, to say the least.
Our database confirms the notion, finding that teams in conference title games who managed to win 19 or more of their last 22 games are just 6-15-2 ATS when installed as favorites in these games.
Worse, when favored by 21 or less points, and playing off a win of 3 or more points, these ’pips’ dip to 1-14-1 ATS in these title game roles.
The Tide may be high in Tuscaloosa these days but expectancy of rewarding their backers is low this week.
- San Francisco
- Al McMordie
- October 2, 2016 - 4:25 PM
- Offered at:
- sportsinteraction @ 3 -115 San Francisco
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At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our complimentary selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over the Dallas Cowboys. After shutting out the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, the 49ers’ defense has sprung some leaks, and has given up 46 and 37 points the past two weeks. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the defensively-challenged 49ers, but consider that home underdogs are 63.4% ATS off a loss in which they failed to cover by more than a touchdown, if they gave up 37+ points in that defeat, and their opponent is off a straight-up win. San Francisco has gone 8-2-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 1980, while the Cowboys have covered just 48 of 123 on the road off a win, dating back to 1985. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my red-hot winners, as I'm currently on a 53-27 RUN. Among our plays this week is a 100% Perfect 10 Club NFL play, backed by a 100%, 15-0 ATS System which hasn't lost in 30 years. Join for a week or month today to get all of our award-winning plays.