Smart Box Series: High Expectations
By Marc Lawrence
When Alabama defeated Florida, 28-21, to win the first ever SEC championship game in 1992, it signaled the start of Division-1 college football conference title games.
This week finds a total of six FBS conference championship games on tap, with no less than four teams each owning one loss on the season.
Satisfyingly enough, these four one-time losers – all 11-1 on the year - find themselves paired against one another as upstart Kent State squares off against Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, while Alabama meets Georgia in the SEC championship game.
In addition to the pressure of being a defending national champion looking to get back to the BCS Championship Game, Alabama must also overcome exceedingly high expectations of its own.
The staggering effect of what happens in conference championship games with teams who have dominated on the playing field the last two seasons is eye-opening, to say the least.
Our database confirms the notion, finding that teams in conference title games who managed to win 19 or more of their last 22 games are just 6-15-2 ATS when installed as favorites in these games.
Worse, when favored by 21 or less points, and playing off a win of 3 or more points, these ’pips’ dip to 1-14-1 ATS in these title game roles.
The Tide may be high in Tuscaloosa these days but expectancy of rewarding their backers is low this week.
- Doc's Sports
- April 22, 2015 - 7:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -9.5 -105 Atlanta
Doc's NBA is on a 21-8 run for 10* picks and we have another 10* winner coming on Wednesday after a blazing hot start to the postseason. Here is Doc's 1* NBA pick for Wednesday...
The Hawks didn’t really play all that well in Game 1 of this series and still won the game by seven. We expect them to do much better tonight and think this game has a great chance to be blowout city. The Hawks have been one of the best ATS teams in the league and them failing to cover was the best thing to happen in this series for those of us that like Atlanta because that will keep the lines honest for the rest of this series, especially when the venue switches over to Barclays Center. The Hawks are one of those teams that has been undervalued all season and it sure seems that way here for Game 2 with the line being adjusted under 10 here when we see the Hawks as a clear double-digit favorite here. Atlanta led by as many as 16 in Game 1 but they let the Nets hang around a little too long to miss the cover but we think the better team will be able to make better adjustments and expect the home team to get the comfortable win here.
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