Smart Box Series: High Expectations
By Marc Lawrence
When Alabama defeated Florida, 28-21, to win the first ever SEC championship game in 1992, it signaled the start of Division-1 college football conference title games.
This week finds a total of six FBS conference championship games on tap, with no less than four teams each owning one loss on the season.
Satisfyingly enough, these four one-time losers – all 11-1 on the year - find themselves paired against one another as upstart Kent State squares off against Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, while Alabama meets Georgia in the SEC championship game.
In addition to the pressure of being a defending national champion looking to get back to the BCS Championship Game, Alabama must also overcome exceedingly high expectations of its own.
The staggering effect of what happens in conference championship games with teams who have dominated on the playing field the last two seasons is eye-opening, to say the least.
Our database confirms the notion, finding that teams in conference title games who managed to win 19 or more of their last 22 games are just 6-15-2 ATS when installed as favorites in these games.
Worse, when favored by 21 or less points, and playing off a win of 3 or more points, these ’pips’ dip to 1-14-1 ATS in these title game roles.
The Tide may be high in Tuscaloosa these days but expectancy of rewarding their backers is low this week.
- Kansas City
- April 25, 2014 - 7:05 PM
- Bryan Power
- Offered at:
- betonline @ -107 Kansas City
"The Real Deal" Bryan Power won EASILY Thursday w/ the Tigers. No surprise there as he absolutely DOMINATED MLB from start to finish last season, making his clients an INSANE $22,789 in profit! He's winning at an even HIGHER rate this year (60% overall), so what are you waiting for? Subscribe today.
1* Kansas City (7:05 ET): The Royals dropped their final two games in Cleveland, including a 5-1 loss Thursday afternoon. The Tribe scored all five of its runs in one inning (the 5th) and offensively KC had no answer for Corey Kluber. But tonight they get to face a struggling starter (and former Indian!) Ubaldo Jiminez, who has an 0-4 TSR thanks to a 6.75 ERA and 1.875 WHIP to this point. They should have far more success at the plate tonight as they open up a three-game set at Camden Yards.
Baltimore won 11-4 yesterday in Toronto, scoring double digit runs for a second straight game. Offense is the Orioles' strength, but I see them getting slowed down here by Royals starter Yordano Ventura, who had been outstanding in two starts before running into Minnesota last time out. For all the alleged offensive prowess, the O's are averaging just 2.7 runs per game at home this year. Look for them to drop the series opener. 1* Kansas City.