College Conference Championship Games
Cutting Down The Nets
By Marc Lawrence
It’s Championship Week and with it the reward of a ticket to the Big Dance to all the teams who will be cutting down the nets immediately after their conference tournament championship game.
Before knee jerking and playing on teams in title games that on paper look to be the better squad, instead pay close attention to these four College Conference Championship Game moneymaking scenarios.
You could end up padding your NCAA Tournament bankroll. Note: all results are prior to this year’s tourneys and are since 1990…
Having been there and done that goes a long way toward a team’s success in conference title games.
That’s confirmed by the fact that team who won 27 or more games the previous season use that weight to their advantage, going 64-44-3 ATS in these affairs.
Put them up against a No. 4 or lower seed and they improve to 29-3 SU and 23-8-1 ATS, including 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS if they defeated their lightweight opponent in a most recent contest.
Ain’t No Stopping Us Now
Momentum can carry a team a long way, especially when they arrive to the championship game of their conference tourney.
No. 1 or 2 seeded favorites that enter off three wins in a row by an average win margin of 20 PPG or better are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS.
Put them up against an opponent that failed to cover the spread by more than six points in its last game and they zoom right to the head of the class, going 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS.
Home Teams in Title Games – Use Them, Don’t Abuse Them
Home is where the heart is. It’s also where the money is in championship games. That’s confirmed by the fact that ‘on-board’ teams are 38-15 SU and 29-23-1 ATS.
If these home advantaged teams lost one or fewer games at home on the season they improve to 23-1 SU and 15-8-1 ATS, including 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS if they are hosting a No.1 or No. 2 seeded opponent.
Best of all, these one-loss or less wonders are 4-0 SU and ATS if the opponent did not cover the number in it’s semi-final contest.
Dogs With a Higher Win Percentage Have Little to No Bite
As rare as it may seem, teams with the better record are not always favored in Championship Games. Believe me, when the linemakers install the opponent with an inferior win percentage the favorite in the game he’s knows what he’s doing. That’s because underdogs with a better win percentage are just 17-26-2 ATS in these games.
And if the favorite owns a win percentage of .700 or more, the dog dips to 7-18 ATS.
Better yet, puppies with a better record who arrive to the title game off back-to-back SU and ATS wins against .700 or greater opponents are a lowly 1-9 ATS. Buyer beware.
There you have it, four time-tested Championship Game theories to ponder for Championship Week. Now, get your dancing shoes ready.
- April 24, 2014 - 8:10 PM
- Matt Fargo
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 151 Houston
For those that missed Matt's Thursday Underdog Double Play since the first play went early (Mets +135 WINNER), have no fear as you can get the second leg right here! This is his best Dog for tonight as he adds to his INCREDIBLE +$12,576 MLB YTD start! Do not miss out any more of these Underdog Winners by grabbing a baseball subscription now!
We lost a tough one with the Astros yesterday as they blew a 3-0 and lost on a walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. It was still a successful series though as Houston took two of three and head home trying get some payback following a three-game sweep at Oakland last week. Brett Oberholtzer takes the hill for the Astros and despite them going 0-4 in his four starts, he has pitched much better than that. He has only one quality start but he has not allowed more than three runs in any outing and the three that failed to miss quality status were missed by a total of an inning and a third. One of those games game in Oakland where he allowed one run in 5.2 innings but it resulted in a 4-3 loss. Look for him to continue his efficient pitching. The A's were swept at home by Texas so they bring in very little momentum. Scott Kazmir will look to turn things around for his team and he has been outstanding to open the season. He has a 1.65 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through four starts with Oakland going 4-0 in those games thanks to all resulting in quality performances. This includes the win over Oberholtzer but I do not see this holding up. He made one start in Houston last season while with the Indians and was shelled for six runs in 3.1 innings. Play (922) Houston Astros