College Conference Championship Games
Cutting Down The Nets
By Marc Lawrence
It’s Championship Week and with it the reward of a ticket to the Big Dance to all the teams who will be cutting down the nets immediately after their conference tournament championship game.
Before knee jerking and playing on teams in title games that on paper look to be the better squad, instead pay close attention to these four College Conference Championship Game moneymaking scenarios.
You could end up padding your NCAA Tournament bankroll. Note: all results are prior to this year’s tourneys and are since 1990…
Having been there and done that goes a long way toward a team’s success in conference title games.
That’s confirmed by the fact that team who won 27 or more games the previous season use that weight to their advantage, going 64-44-3 ATS in these affairs.
Put them up against a No. 4 or lower seed and they improve to 29-3 SU and 23-8-1 ATS, including 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS if they defeated their lightweight opponent in a most recent contest.
Ain’t No Stopping Us Now
Momentum can carry a team a long way, especially when they arrive to the championship game of their conference tourney.
No. 1 or 2 seeded favorites that enter off three wins in a row by an average win margin of 20 PPG or better are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS.
Put them up against an opponent that failed to cover the spread by more than six points in its last game and they zoom right to the head of the class, going 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS.
Home Teams in Title Games – Use Them, Don’t Abuse Them
Home is where the heart is. It’s also where the money is in championship games. That’s confirmed by the fact that ‘on-board’ teams are 38-15 SU and 29-23-1 ATS.
If these home advantaged teams lost one or fewer games at home on the season they improve to 23-1 SU and 15-8-1 ATS, including 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS if they are hosting a No.1 or No. 2 seeded opponent.
Best of all, these one-loss or less wonders are 4-0 SU and ATS if the opponent did not cover the number in it’s semi-final contest.
Dogs With a Higher Win Percentage Have Little to No Bite
As rare as it may seem, teams with the better record are not always favored in Championship Games. Believe me, when the linemakers install the opponent with an inferior win percentage the favorite in the game he’s knows what he’s doing. That’s because underdogs with a better win percentage are just 17-26-2 ATS in these games.
And if the favorite owns a win percentage of .700 or more, the dog dips to 7-18 ATS.
Better yet, puppies with a better record who arrive to the title game off back-to-back SU and ATS wins against .700 or greater opponents are a lowly 1-9 ATS. Buyer beware.
There you have it, four time-tested Championship Game theories to ponder for Championship Week. Now, get your dancing shoes ready.
- Notre Dame
- Power Sports
- November 28, 2015 - 7:30 PM
- Offered at:
- carbonsports @ 4 -110 Notre Dame
1* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): I realize that this is a revenge game for the favored Cardinal, at home, but the underdog Fighting Irish are likely to be the more motivated side as they were just dropped in the most recent CFP rankings. A win here could very well get them back in the coveted top four, so the points look like a premium in an even matchup.
Yes, I went against Notre Dame last week in what appeared to be a "lethargic" effort, a 16-13 win over Boston College. But delving further inside the box score reveals that the game was a little more one-sided than the final score shows. The Irish actually owned a 447-302 edge in total yards, but were hampered by five turnovers. Four of those turnovers occurred when ND was inside the BC 35-yd line, three inside the 10! So it was a bit of a "lucky" cover for my backers and I. Meanwhile, Stanford was actually severely outgained in its win over rival Cal last week, 495-356.
The Cardinal have a game scheduled for next week, that being the Pac 12 Championship Game, so their collective focus may not entirely be on the Irish. It would take nothing short of a miracle for Stanford to somehow find itself in a position where they can make the top four in the CFP rankings. For Notre Dame, this is the regular season finale and they should leave it all on the field. Remember that their ONLY loss this year came at unbeaten Clemson, by just two points, and they had a chance to tie the game w/ a 2-pt conversion that ultimately failed. 1* Notre Dame
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