Main Card Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC 218
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II
Date: December 2
Arena: Little Caesars Arena
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is will be back in Detroit, MI for the second time in promotional history with UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II. The stacked 13 fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:15 p.m. ET, with the prelims continuing on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., and the main card getting going on Pay Per View at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
My Fights to AVOID betting are:
Heavyweight bout: Francis Ngannou (-270) vs. Alistair Overeem (+230)
Gabe's Thoughts: I think Ngannou should be a -230 betting favorite in this contest, despite it being the stiffest test of his professional mixed martial arts career. That means I don’t think he is worth betting at his current offering price of -270 and think Overeem is a bit of a live dog as his underdog tag of +230. At these odds, I see this fight as a dog or pass situation and I will definitely have to pass. I think Ngannou putting Overeem’s lights out is the most likely outcome, but I don’t trust it enough to lay -270. Overeem arguably has the best fight IQ in the heavyweight division, and he knows his chin is what it is, so he could fight smart and get his hand raised. Avoiding getting caught isn’t easy, but he’s done it many times before, especially on his current streak.
Gabe's Call: Ngannou by T/KO (punches, 1:38 round 1)
Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID
Lightweight bout: Justin Gaethje (-175) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+155)
Gabe's Thoughts: More or less, I agree with the current betting odds for this 155-pound contest, so I see no betting value in either fighter. I expect this to be a war; one that could last a minute or 15 minutes. This is a “do not blink” type of fight, and I think Gaethje has the edge in it, being the younger fighter and having never been finished himself. Alvarez is certainly the type of fighter who can hand him his first loss, but at +155, a year removed from his knockout loss to Conor McGregor, the value just isn’t there. I would need to be getting Alvarez at +210 to even consider a wager. At the current price on him, it’s a pass for me, and as for Gaethje, I favor him to get the job done and remain undefeated, but it’s a no play zone for me there, as well.
Gabe's Call: Gaethjie by T/KO (strikes, 4:47 round 1)
Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID
- Larry Ness
- August 15, 2018 - 7:05 PM
- Offered at:
- betnow @ PHI (120)
My free play is on the Phil Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Boston Red Sox won again last night, as a pinch-hit, go-ahead homer in the eighth inning led to a 2-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. It was Boston's fifth straight win and 11th in 12 outings to open August. The Red Sox are currently on pace to win 115 games and sit 10 games of the Yankees in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Phillies have mustered just nine runs en route to losing four of their last five games, dropping them two games behind National League East-leading Atlanta. Philadelphia currently owns the second NL's wild card spot and the Phillies sit just one game behind Milwaukee. However, the wild card field is crowded, as the Cards are just one game back of the Phillies, with the Rockies 1 1/2 games back and the Dodgers 2 1/2 games back.
Nathan Eovaldi (5-4, 3.74 ERA) began the 2018 season with the Rays but was traded to the Red Sox before the July 31 deadline. He began his Boston career with consecutive scoreless starts but allowed eight runs (just four earned) in just 2 2/3 innings in Friday's 19-12 win against Baltimore (Eovaldi had a no decisions). Eovaldi takes the mound with a 3-4 mark with a 3.51 ERA in nine career starts versus Philadelphia. Vince Velasquez (8-9, 3.98 ERA) comes off 6-0 loss at Arizona in his last outing (four runs in four innings). The Phillies are an unimpressive 9-13 in Velasquez's starts in 2018. He has faced the Red Sox just once in his four-year big-league career, as a member of the Houston Astros back in 2015. In that contest, he gave up three runs and struck out seven batters in six innings in an 8-3 win.
The Philadelphia offense has struggled in the last week, as the team has scored just 16 runs in its last seven games (2.3 runs per game), going 2-5 in that stretch. However, while Boston's easily owns MLB's best record and the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored (among a bevy of other offensive categories), they have scored just five runs in taking two of three from the Phillies in 2018. I'm not sold even a little on Eovaldi plus will note that previous to Velasquez's most recent start, he had allowed only five ERs over 32 1/3 innings of his prior six starts (1.39 ERA). Boston can't win them all. Take the Phillies.