Main Card Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC 218

MMA OddsBreaker | Dec 1, 2017 | ARCHIVE

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II
Date: December 2
Arena: Little Caesars Arena
City:Detroit, MI

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is will be back in Detroit, MI for the second time in promotional history with UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II. The stacked 13 fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:15 p.m. ET, with the prelims continuing on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., and the main card getting going on Pay Per View at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

My Fights to AVOID betting are:

Heavyweight bout: Francis Ngannou (-270) vs. Alistair Overeem (+230)

Gabe's Thoughts: I think Ngannou should be a -230 betting favorite in this contest, despite it being the stiffest test of his professional mixed martial arts career. That means I don’t think he is worth betting at his current offering price of -270 and think Overeem is a bit of a live dog as his underdog tag of +230. At these odds, I see this fight as a dog or pass situation and I will definitely have to pass. I think Ngannou putting Overeem’s lights out is the most likely outcome, but I don’t trust it enough to lay -270. Overeem arguably has the best fight IQ in the heavyweight division, and he knows his chin is what it is, so he could fight smart and get his hand raised. Avoiding getting caught isn’t easy, but he’s done it many times before, especially on his current streak.

Gabe's Call: Ngannou by T/KO (punches, 1:38 round 1)

Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID

Lightweight bout: Justin Gaethje (-175) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+155) 

Gabe's Thoughts: More or less, I agree with the current betting odds for this 155-pound contest, so I see no betting value in either fighter. I expect this to be a war; one that could last a minute or 15 minutes. This is a “do not blink” type of fight, and I think Gaethje has the edge in it, being the younger fighter and having never been finished himself. Alvarez is certainly the type of fighter who can hand him his first loss, but at +155, a year removed from his knockout loss to Conor McGregor, the value just isn’t there. I would need to be getting Alvarez at +210 to even consider a wager. At the current price on him, it’s a pass for me, and as for Gaethje, I favor him to get the job done and remain undefeated, but it’s a no play zone for me there, as well.

Gabe's Call: Gaethjie by T/KO (strikes, 4:47 round 1)

Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID


Written by Gabe Killian - MMAOddsBreaker 

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