By Marc Lawrence
With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days.
It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games, noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.
What we’re looking to target on is how brain-chain teams fare the second night of these affairs no-rest affairs. Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more suitable situations.
Creaky Double Digit Chalk
According to our database the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 53-82-3 ATS overall since the 1990-91 season.
Even worse, double-digit favs with a .687 or greater win percentage are just 16-38 ATS.
Digging deeper, if these tired hosts are facing an opponent that was a dog of 16 or more points the previous night, they check in at 14-34 ATS, including 5-20 ATS provided chalk has lost two or more home games this season.
Fool Me Twice
Revenge serves as a motivating tool in these no-rest Ivy League matchups, especially when we bring a visiting team in with double-revenge incentive from a pair of losses suffered last season.
That’s confirmed by a 50-32-1 ATS mark when these wonder-boys are in the road, including 34-13-1 ATS when taking seven or more points when fueled with double-revenge incentive.
Better yet, bring these guys in with a lukewarm win percentage of .375 or less in this role and they make the Dean’s List, going 26-8 ATS.
Out third and final theorem occurs when these non-rested Ivy Leaguers are on the Saturday night road as dogs off a loss of 13 or more points.
Dress them up as dogs in this role and they are 62-47-1 ATS, including 39-24 ATS when taking 10 or more points.
Bring them into these same games with a win percentage of .400 or less and they ratchet up to 35-14 ATS, including 21-6 ATS when facing a foe off a win of more than 10 points.
There you have it, the perfect calamine lotion for Ivy League teams in constant motion.
Keep an eye on this hypothesis throughout the end of the Ivy League campaign. Remember, should you feel a strange itch coming on, don’t scratch it. Simply apply the proper antidote.
- New Orleans
- AAA Sports
- October 30, 2016 - 1:00 PM
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ 3 -111 New Orleans
AAA Sports continues to ANNIHILATE the books with their AMAZING NFL selections, there have been 7 weeks so far and AAA has shown a BIG PROFIT every single week! And they’ve been particularly DOMINANT on NFL Sunday, going 30-12 (71%) w/ ALL of their pro gridiron picks on the weekend (was 4-1 last Sunday!). Join the "Wagering Warriors" in AAA's army!
1* Free Play New Orleans Saints.
REASONING: We’ve used Seattle as a “free play selection” the past two weeks, but this Sunday we’re going to go against the struggling Seahawks’ offense and instead back the much hungrier home side. Seattle’s offense looked atrocious in its 6-6 Sunday Night tie with Arizona last week. The Seahawks run game has stalled and QB Russell Wilson still isn’t back to 100% health with his ankle injury. New Orleans on the other hand comes in ranked among the leaders in every offensive statistical category. At 3-4, the Saints still have a shot at the division title, but at 2-5, the odds would obviously be stacked against them. It’s a brutal part of the scheudle for the Seahawks, who have Buffalo visit next weekend, followed by a trip to New England. Note that Seattle is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the NFC South, while New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS this season. Consider a second look at New Orleans in Week 8.