By Marc Lawrence
With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days.
It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games, noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.
What we’re looking to target on is how brain-chain teams fare the second night of these affairs no-rest affairs. Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more suitable situations.
Creaky Double Digit Chalk
According to our database the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 53-82-3 ATS overall since the 1990-91 season.
Even worse, double-digit favs with a .687 or greater win percentage are just 16-38 ATS.
Digging deeper, if these tired hosts are facing an opponent that was a dog of 16 or more points the previous night, they check in at 14-34 ATS, including 5-20 ATS provided chalk has lost two or more home games this season.
Fool Me Twice
Revenge serves as a motivating tool in these no-rest Ivy League matchups, especially when we bring a visiting team in with double-revenge incentive from a pair of losses suffered last season.
That’s confirmed by a 50-32-1 ATS mark when these wonder-boys are in the road, including 34-13-1 ATS when taking seven or more points when fueled with double-revenge incentive.
Better yet, bring these guys in with a lukewarm win percentage of .375 or less in this role and they make the Dean’s List, going 26-8 ATS.
Out third and final theorem occurs when these non-rested Ivy Leaguers are on the Saturday night road as dogs off a loss of 13 or more points.
Dress them up as dogs in this role and they are 62-47-1 ATS, including 39-24 ATS when taking 10 or more points.
Bring them into these same games with a win percentage of .400 or less and they ratchet up to 35-14 ATS, including 21-6 ATS when facing a foe off a win of more than 10 points.
There you have it, the perfect calamine lotion for Ivy League teams in constant motion.
Keep an eye on this hypothesis throughout the end of the Ivy League campaign. Remember, should you feel a strange itch coming on, don’t scratch it. Simply apply the proper antidote.
- Power Sports
- May 29, 2015 - 10:10 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 101 Pittsburgh
1* Pittsburgh (10:10 ET): It's tough to go against the Padres here, after they took a bad loss at home last night, and especially w/ James Shields pitching. But the fact is this team simply isn't very good right now while the Pirates are red hot, winners of seven in a row and outscoring opponents by a 46-14 margin. They are the play here.
Shields may be unbeaten in his 10 starts (6-0) w/ the team having won the last five times he's taken the mound, but he's hardly been dominant here in 2015. In fact, his ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.203 are downright pedestrian numbers. A major concern for him has been giving up the long ball as he leads the team w/ 15 HR allowed in 62 1/3 IP. Pirates' starter Francisco Liriano, despite an unfortunate 2-7 TSR, has very similar numbers to Shields, which shows just how cruel this game can often be. Liriano is off a spectacular outing where he struck out 12 and allowed just 1 ER in a 9-1 win over the Mets. He has a 1.91 ERA in four road starts.
The Pirates homered three times yday en route to the rout (Note: I won w/ the Over). None of those were from Andrew McCutchen, but that's okay; he had three hits anyway & continues to be red-hot at the plate w/ a .314 batting average in May. The Pirates are simply a much better team than the Padres right now & we can get them at a great price here because of Shields' influence on the line. 1* Pittsburgh