NFL Prop Shop: Wild Card Weekend
Fresh off a 3-1 Week 17 prop card, Sean is ready to roll with his four best prop bets from this weekend's Wild Card playoff action.
He's targeting all four games, with one play from each; take a look.
Most passing yards
Andy Dalton vs. Matt Schaub: Take Dalton
I'll play the momentum card in this matchup.
Matt Schaub has been scuffing his heels lately, topping out at 275 yards passing over his last five games. Expect the Texans to go run-heavy in this matchup, with Arian Foster stealing the show.
With BenJarvus Green-Ellis banged up, not to mention inconsistent, the Bengals will lean heavily on the arm of Andy Dalton. He and A.J. Green should have a field day against a Texans defense that is deep in a state of regression.
Most rushing yards
Marshawn Lynch vs. Alfred Morris: Take Lynch
Both teams are led by rookie quarterbacks, but the difference here is, the Seahawks rookie pivot is playing his first career playoff game on the road.
What does that have to do with the running backs, you ask? We can expect the Seahawks to relieve some of the pressure on Wilson by handing the rock off to Marshawn Lynch early and often on Sunday. I like the way Lynch's physicality matches up against a less-than-stellar Redskins front line.
Alfred Morris is coming off a career game, but won't reach those same heights on Sunday. This one is on RGIII. Morris won't be held in check all game long, but I don't see him eclipsing the century mark in terms of rushing yardage.
Most pass receptions
T.Y. Hilton vs. Torrey Smith: Take Hilton
Rookie standout T.Y. Hilton has quietly emerged as Andrew Luck's favorite target down the stretch, and I don't think the Ravens oft-exposed secondary will have an answer for his speed on Sunday afternoon.
While the Colts by no means possess a shut-down pass defense, they do have a quality corner to match up with Torrey Smith in Vontae Davis. In fact, Smith should see plenty of double coverage on Sunday, as Indianapolis tries to take away the deep ball from the Baltimore offense.
Minnesota vs. Green Bay: Take Minnesota
We're getting solid value with the Vikings terrific pass rush in this matchup.
Just last Sunday, Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times - albeit in a hostile environment at the Metrodome. When these two teams met right here at Lambeau Field in early December, Rodgers was sacked twice.
Note that Christian Ponder was only sacked once in those two matchups. The story remains the same on Saturday night.
- Power Sports
- December 7, 2016 - 7:30 PM
- Offered at:
- betonline @ 100 Minnesota
1* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Though only 4th in their own division (Central), I actually have the Wild rated as the top team in the Western Conference right now. After concluding a three-game trek though Western Canada w/ a 2-1 win over Edmonton on Sunday, I believe the team has been severely mispriced as they get set to hit the other end of the country
Ironically, Toronto also just concluded a three-game trip through Western Canada. Like the Wild, they beat Edmonton, but lost to Vancouver and Calgary. Unlike the Wild, the Leafs' trip started in Edmonton and worked its way West. Though 10-9-5 overall, Toronto still finds itself in last place in the division as the Atlantic is shaping up to be quite challenging this year. While they've been far better at home than on the road, the Leafs still don't deserve to be the ML favorites in this matchup. They are just 5-11 SU playing w/ three days rest by the way. They are 28th in goals allowed plus were shutout in Calgary last week. The goaltending they'll face here is far stiffer.
What I like about Minnesota is the fact they are 2nd in the league in goals allowed and first in save percentage. Paced by Devan Dubnyk (league leader at .948), the Wild have outscored opponents so far by 15 goals. Dubnyk already has four shutouts and his GAA is 1.63. It's a massive edge for him over Toronto's Frederik Andersen. The Wild have won all five meetings with the Maple Leafs the last three seasons, including a 3-2 home win back in October. Great value here on the better team. 1* Minnesota