NFL Prop Shop: Week 11
After a disappointing 1-3 showing last week, we're now 23-17 inside the Prop Shop this season.
Time to get some of that back in Week 11; here are four picks to click on Sunday.
Most passing yards
Aaron Rodgers vs. Matthew Stafford: Take Rodgers
Even with a depleted receiving corps, I think we'll see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense shine coming out of the bye week.
Of course, that's not a stretch when you consider how banged-up the Lions are in the secondary. Just last week they allowed a struggling Christian Ponder to throw for 221 yards and two touchdowns in a double-digit loss to the Vikings.
Matt Stafford has been piling up the passing yardage, but the Lions will have to do something to keep the Packers offense off the field on Sunday, and that should mean a healthy dose of their ground game.
Mark Sanchez vs. Sam Bradford: Take Bradford
Mark Sanchez continues to take a lot of heat from the growing number of Jets critics. He hasn't responded well to adversity in the past, and he's admittedly in a tough spot with an extremely weak supporting cast around him. This doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot against an aggressive and underrated Rams defense.
Sam Bradford has thrown for over 200 yards in four straight games, and has his favorite target back in the fold in Danny Amendola. There's little reason to expect a slowdown from Bradford against a struggling Jets secondary.
Most rushing yards
LeSean McCoy vs. Alfred Morris: Take McCoy
With Michael Vick sidelined, you have to think that Andy Reid will finally give in and hand Shady McCoy a heavier workload on Sunday afternoon. The explosive back is in excellent form having gained 201 yards on only 35 carries over the last two weeks.
Redskins rookie RB Alfred Morris has been terrific at times this season, but has sputtered lately, gaining only 135 yards on the ground over his last two games. The Eagles defense should come to play this week, and I'm confident in their ability to bottle up Morris.
Most pass receptions
A.J. Green vs. Dwayne Bowe: Take Green
The Chiefs offense is stuck in neutral, and that has a lot to do with the ineffectiveness of QB Matt Cassel.
Dwayne Bowe has suffered as a result, catching four passes or less in three of his last four games. To make matters worse, he's been limited in practice due to a thigh injury this week, so I'm not counting on a breakout performance on Sunday.
A.J. Green continues to be a steady contributor in the Bengals offense, hauling in at least seven catches in six of nine games this season. He has 27 catches in four road games, and should continue his assault at Arrowhead Stadium this week.
- New York
- Bryan Power
- March 28, 2015 - 8:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 16.5 -105 New York
1* New York (8:05 ET): Warning: This will not be the most "fun" play of the day. The Knicks are obviously horrible, but as you can tell that's been taken into account, too much so in fact, in my opinion. A spread this high should be reserved for Golden State, Cleveland or the Clippers. Not a Bulls team that's 0-4 ATS the L3 yrs at -12.5 or higher.
Sometimes you have to just trust your numbers and that's what I'm doing here as my personal power ratings indicate that this line should be a couple points lower. Note New York is actually a solid 7-4 against the spread this year when taking 12.5 or more points. They are coming off a cover last night as they lost to Boston by only four at home. Betting isn't just about "taking good teams," rather its about the numbers and in this instance the spread is just too high.
Chicago is also likely due for a letdown after beating Toronto Wednesday. This season has seen the Bulls go 6-10 ATS following a double digit win. They are also 9-16 ATS after scoring 105+ their previous game. When these teams met here back in December, the line was "only" -12.5 and the Knicks covered there, losing by only six. Believe it or not, but there is value tonight in taking the worst team in the league. 1* New York.
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