Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bottom Feeders in December
I’ve spent the last two weeks breaking down playoff contenders in both the AFC and NFC. But the playoffs are still a month away. There are still four more regular season games to be played for every team in the NFL; a full quarter of the season. That’s why I’m taking a hard look in the opposite direction this week; breaking down the bottom feeders.
Bottom feeders in December are a mixed breed. Some squads tank; done with their season. Other bottom feeders play their best ball down the stretch, building momentum for next year.
Look at last year for some prime examples. The Lions went 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in five December games a season ago; the lone pointspread cover coming by a single point in their meaningless season finale defeat. Philly went 1-4 SU at the tail end of the Andy Reid era, and got blown out in each of their final three games, losing by a combined nine TD’s in those contests. Arizona, Buffalo, the New York Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Kansas City – all teams that were considered ‘bottom feeders’ at this time last year – each finished with a losing SU and ATS mark in their five December ballgames.
On the other end of the spectrum was a team like the Redskins, who closed out December with a 5-0 SU and ATS mark after entering the month with a 5-6 record. Minnesota won and covered each of their last four, turning a mediocre season into a playoff campaign. Carolina went from 3-9 to 7-9 over the last four weeks, covering every spread in the process. St Louis won only three of their first ten games, but they too, were winners SU and ATS in December.
Not every ‘dead’ team is really dead, and there’s money to be made if we can identify those ‘live’ bottom feeders before the betting markets do! That’s my goal for this week’s article. I’ll break down each of the nine teams currently at 4-8 or worse to see which squads are still fighting tooth and nail every week and which have already packed it in for the season.
I’ve broken those nine teams down into three basic categories: ‘Live for December’ ‘Worth Watching’ and ‘Dead Team Walking’. This breakdown isn’t based on stats or long term profiles, just my own opinions about late season effort, talent and market valuation.
‘Live For December’:
Buffalo Bills: The Bills have a first year head coach in Doug Marrone, so there’s no ‘lame duck’ coaching situation here. Like the Redskins last year, Buffalo has a rookie QB who’s gone through some injury issues; still improving by the week. Their defense is still playing hard, with a solid statistical profile. And the Bills fast tempo on offense has the potential to give banged up late season defenses all kinds of problems.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Another team with a first year head coach (Gus Bradley) who has clearly imprinted his stamp on the team in recent weeks. The Jags were unquestionably the worst team in the NFL over the first half of the season, leaving residual value to support them now that their play has dramatically improved. With three SU wins as a TD+ underdog in their last four games, the Jags are already making money for those with the courage to back ‘em.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs were enormous underachievers over the first two months of the campaign, dropping eight straight to begin the season. Four of those eight losses were fourth quarter meltdowns, turning winnable games into defeats. But like Jacksonville, we’ve already seen the turnaround. While the national media rips Greg Schiano on a weekly basis, it’s clear that the team hasn’t quit on their coach.
Houston Texans: Despite suffering through a truly dismal season, the Texans have as much or more talent on their roster than any other team on this list. But their defense has been getting gashed; their quarterback play subpar, and ten straight losses since their 2-0 start has left this squad shell-shocked. Houston played hard upon Gary Kubiak’s return to the sidelines against the Patriots this past Sunday. Similar effort should be enough to get them some December wins, but veteran squads with high preseason expectations aren’t known for max effort showings on a weekly basis.
Minnesota Vikings: Both Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel have been serviceable at the QB position, and the Vikings have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five ballgames. They’ve fought tooth-and-nail against divisional foes in each of the last two weeks, showing max effort for Leslie Frazier. All four teams remaining on their schedule are fighting for playoff spots – if the Vikings continue to battle on a weekly basis, there will be legitimate overlays to support them because their opponents will be in those dreaded ‘must win’ spots.
Oakland Raiders: Both Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin have been serviceable at the QB position. The Raiders defense isn’t good, but they’re certainly not atrocious, capable of getting stops. Each of the Raiders last three losses have been competitive contests, decided by a TD or less. And frankly, Oakland has been a moneymaker for their backers from Day 1 this season, suffering only four pointspread losses in their first dozen games.
‘Dead Team Walking’:
Cleveland Browns: Rob Chudzinski’s revolving door at quarterback isn’t likely to end in December, with Brandon Weeden facing yet another benching. The lone healthy replacement behind him is second year pro Alex Tanney out of Monmouth College who has never taken a snap in a regular season game. And the once dominant Browns defense has fallen apart in recent weeks, allowing 100 points in their last three games; 27+ five times in their last seven. Following back-to-back demoralizing divisional losses, this team has fallen and they can’t get up.
Atlanta Falcons: Yes, the Falcons finally snapped their losing streak with an improbable OT win in Toronto against the Bills on Sunday. Atlanta was lucky to be playing indoors at the Rogers Centre. And they were even luckier that the Bills fumbled away the win in regulation and their first possession of overtime, turning a Bills ‘W’ into a Falcons ‘W’. But for a veteran team with preseason championship aspirations, playing for ‘pride’ in December isn’t an appropriate motivator
Washington Redskins: Washington’s locker room is toxic these days, with veteran resentment showing towards their coach, both coordinators and their underachieving quarterback. RG3 is a shell of the QB he was last year at this time when the Redskins were rallying. Each of their eight losses since opening the season by getting blasted by Philly on Monday Night Football has come by a TD or more, and their defense is downright awful on a weekly basis. That’s a trend I expect to continue moving forward; a season with no hope of redemption.
- O (TEX at NYY)
- AAA Sports
- June 28, 2016 - 7:05 PM
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The visitors hand the ball to ace Cole Hamels (8-1, 2.79 ERA) who comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Reds on Wednesday, allowing just one run off five scattered hits over six innings in the 6-4 win. Hamels’ peripherals are ugly though and it’s now just a matter of time before the baseball gods come back to strike him down as his 1.40 HR/9 and 3.44 BB/9 are both career worsts, while his 4.57 FIP is horrible. Hamels will be opposed by Yanks veteran CC Sabathia, who like his counterpart today, has opened the season strong, but who has also shown some “cracks in the armor.” Sabathia (5-4, 2.20 ERA) is approaching 36 years old and while he’s been superb to this point, like Hamels there’s plenty of tell tale signs that the southpaw is about to take a step back, as his FIP is a full point higher than his ERA and his xFIP (which is considred by most experts as being the best predictor for future ERA) is more than two runs higher. Also note that he’s a rather pedestrian 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. We’re going to recommend a play on the OVER in this one.
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