Inside The Stats
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
Just a week away from carving up the big bird, let’s take a look ‘Inside The Stats’ at some the ‘real numbers’ posted by teams, coaches and quarterbacks this 2012 football season to date.
How often does your team outplay its opponent, only to come up on the losing end of the scoreboard?
More often than you might imagine.
When a team wins the game but loses the total yardage n the stat sheet, these contests are referred to as ‘inside-out’ wins.
Fourteen such occurrences took place on the college gridiron last week. They included: Central Michigan/Eastern Michigan, Connecticut/Pittsburgh, Florida State/Virginia Tech, Massachusetts/Akron, Michigan/Northwestern, Missouri/Tennessee, North Texas/South Alabama, Oklahoma State/Baylor, San Diego State/Air Force, Texas A&M/Alabama, Rutgers/Army, UCLA/Washington State, Vanderbilt/Mississippi and Wyoming/New Mexico.
On the NFL front last week’s phony winners were: Baltimore/Oakland, Cincinnati/NY Giants, Dallas/Philadelphia, Houston/Chicago, New England/Buffalo, New Orleans/Atlanta and Tampa Bay/San Diego.
The Aztecs, Bruins, Cowboys, Minutemen and Tigers were each out-yarded 100 or more yards on the college front.
In the NFL the Bucs and Patriots took triple-digit stat losses in their victories.
According to the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, here are the largest variance of combined net total yardage in common opponent games in college football this week: Florida State (+316), Army (+265), Nebraska (+261), Virginia Tech (+251), Texas San Antonio (+223), Central Florida (+210), Buffalo (+205).
On the NFL slate we find: Denver (+249, Kansas City (+217) and Dallas (+209).
From this list, Central Florida and the Kansas City Chiefs appear as underdogs this week.
Black Gold and Texas Tea
This week’s group of college football favorites that find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been outgained in each of their last three games) include: Kansas State (yikes), Miami Ohio, Mississippi State and Texas San Antonio.
Two NFL favorites in need of a lube job are Baltimore and New Orleans.
To the best of our knowledge this is the first time the No. 1 team in the BCS poll has ever made an appearance on this list.
With the noose getting tighter and tighter with each passing week, and facing Baylor’s vaunted offense this Saturday, it would be no surprise to find the Wildcats huddling a team of BP lab experts come Sunday.
Let’s face it. There’ nothing more soothing for pair of sore eyes than a good-looking bod.
On the beach they are breathtaking and speak for themselves
On the football field they are underdogs that possess both the Better overall Offense and the Better overall Defense.
The both demand awareness and a second-look.
This week’s BOD’s look like UTEP in college football along with Detroit and Kansas City in the NFL.
Take It Or Leave It
A follow up on the five first year starting quarterbacks in the NFL finds they have struggled as favorites (4-9 SU and ATS) but excelled as underdogs (21-10-2 ATS).
When dressed as dogs off a SU and ATS loss these new recruits have been brilliant, going 10-0 ATS.
It will be interesting to see if Ryan Tanneyhill and Brandon Weeden can keep the ball rolling this week.
Stat Of The Week
Tennessee is 28-1 SU in its last 29 games against Vanderbilt. The one and only time they were installed as a dog in those contests they won the game straight up.
- Marc Lawrence
- September 5, 2015 - 12:00 PM
- Offered at:
- sbgglobal @ 12 -110 Northwestern
Play - Northwestern (Game 172).
Edges - Wildcats: 8-2 ATS in season openers; and 4-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 6 or more points. Cardinal: 1-3 ATS last four games versus Big Ten foes.
With Stanford 0-3 ATS in season opening games the last three years, we recommend a 1* play on Northwestern. Thank you and good luck as always.
≥ Marc’s ultra hot hand (32-11 last forty-three 10* releases) continues with another 10* Top Key Play on Saturday’s college football card. Put it right at the top of your ticket now and win real good again with Marc today!
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