Inside The Stats
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
Just a week away from carving up the big bird, let’s take a look ‘Inside The Stats’ at some the ‘real numbers’ posted by teams, coaches and quarterbacks this 2012 football season to date.
How often does your team outplay its opponent, only to come up on the losing end of the scoreboard?
More often than you might imagine.
When a team wins the game but loses the total yardage n the stat sheet, these contests are referred to as ‘inside-out’ wins.
Fourteen such occurrences took place on the college gridiron last week. They included: Central Michigan/Eastern Michigan, Connecticut/Pittsburgh, Florida State/Virginia Tech, Massachusetts/Akron, Michigan/Northwestern, Missouri/Tennessee, North Texas/South Alabama, Oklahoma State/Baylor, San Diego State/Air Force, Texas A&M/Alabama, Rutgers/Army, UCLA/Washington State, Vanderbilt/Mississippi and Wyoming/New Mexico.
On the NFL front last week’s phony winners were: Baltimore/Oakland, Cincinnati/NY Giants, Dallas/Philadelphia, Houston/Chicago, New England/Buffalo, New Orleans/Atlanta and Tampa Bay/San Diego.
The Aztecs, Bruins, Cowboys, Minutemen and Tigers were each out-yarded 100 or more yards on the college front.
In the NFL the Bucs and Patriots took triple-digit stat losses in their victories.
According to the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, here are the largest variance of combined net total yardage in common opponent games in college football this week: Florida State (+316), Army (+265), Nebraska (+261), Virginia Tech (+251), Texas San Antonio (+223), Central Florida (+210), Buffalo (+205).
On the NFL slate we find: Denver (+249, Kansas City (+217) and Dallas (+209).
From this list, Central Florida and the Kansas City Chiefs appear as underdogs this week.
Black Gold and Texas Tea
This week’s group of college football favorites that find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been outgained in each of their last three games) include: Kansas State (yikes), Miami Ohio, Mississippi State and Texas San Antonio.
Two NFL favorites in need of a lube job are Baltimore and New Orleans.
To the best of our knowledge this is the first time the No. 1 team in the BCS poll has ever made an appearance on this list.
With the noose getting tighter and tighter with each passing week, and facing Baylor’s vaunted offense this Saturday, it would be no surprise to find the Wildcats huddling a team of BP lab experts come Sunday.
Let’s face it. There’ nothing more soothing for pair of sore eyes than a good-looking bod.
On the beach they are breathtaking and speak for themselves
On the football field they are underdogs that possess both the Better overall Offense and the Better overall Defense.
The both demand awareness and a second-look.
This week’s BOD’s look like UTEP in college football along with Detroit and Kansas City in the NFL.
Take It Or Leave It
A follow up on the five first year starting quarterbacks in the NFL finds they have struggled as favorites (4-9 SU and ATS) but excelled as underdogs (21-10-2 ATS).
When dressed as dogs off a SU and ATS loss these new recruits have been brilliant, going 10-0 ATS.
It will be interesting to see if Ryan Tanneyhill and Brandon Weeden can keep the ball rolling this week.
Stat Of The Week
Tennessee is 28-1 SU in its last 29 games against Vanderbilt. The one and only time they were installed as a dog in those contests they won the game straight up.
- O (DUKE at ARMY)
- Matt Fargo
- October 10, 2015 - 12:00 PM
- Offered at:
- top bet @ Over 47 -110
This is a 1* Free Play on the Duke/Army Over.
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for this game. Duke is off to a 3-2 start this season as the offense has been inconsistent but the defense has picked up the slack by allowing just 269.8 ypg and 10.6 ppg, good for 9th and 5th in the country respectively. Because of the stop unit, the Blue Devils have stayed below the total in all five of their games this season. This is not a particularly good matchup however for another low scoring game as the offense should have no problem scoring a bunch here. The offense was held to 10 points three games back against Northwestern and nine points against Boston College last time out and those are two of the top three scoring defenses in the country. In comparison, Army is ranked 82nd in scoring defense so Duke can get back to normal here. The Black Knights have had a tough luck season as they are 1-4 with the four losses coming by 2, 5, 3 and 6 points with the last coming against Penn St. Even though the schedule has been pretty difficult, they are averaging a solid 27.6 ppg so even coming close to that here will push this one way over as we can expect Duke to get its fair share of points. The over is 7-2-1 in the Blue Devils last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while the over is 11-5 in the Black Knights last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play Over (321) Duke Blue Devils/(322) Army Black Knights
Fargo is off to a profitable start on the gridiron this season as he has posted SIZEABLE profits of +$14,060 overall! In college football, he is a SIZZLING 27-22 +$3,470 YTD after THREE of FIVE Winning Weeks and going back he is a MASSIVE +$16,021 in CFB since 2013! He is ready for a huge Week Six as he has Winners Thursday, Friday and Saturday! Do not miss any of it!
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