Inside The Stats
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
Just a week away from carving up the big bird, let’s take a look ‘Inside The Stats’ at some the ‘real numbers’ posted by teams, coaches and quarterbacks this 2012 football season to date.
How often does your team outplay its opponent, only to come up on the losing end of the scoreboard?
More often than you might imagine.
When a team wins the game but loses the total yardage n the stat sheet, these contests are referred to as ‘inside-out’ wins.
Fourteen such occurrences took place on the college gridiron last week. They included: Central Michigan/Eastern Michigan, Connecticut/Pittsburgh, Florida State/Virginia Tech, Massachusetts/Akron, Michigan/Northwestern, Missouri/Tennessee, North Texas/South Alabama, Oklahoma State/Baylor, San Diego State/Air Force, Texas A&M/Alabama, Rutgers/Army, UCLA/Washington State, Vanderbilt/Mississippi and Wyoming/New Mexico.
On the NFL front last week’s phony winners were: Baltimore/Oakland, Cincinnati/NY Giants, Dallas/Philadelphia, Houston/Chicago, New England/Buffalo, New Orleans/Atlanta and Tampa Bay/San Diego.
The Aztecs, Bruins, Cowboys, Minutemen and Tigers were each out-yarded 100 or more yards on the college front.
In the NFL the Bucs and Patriots took triple-digit stat losses in their victories.
According to the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, here are the largest variance of combined net total yardage in common opponent games in college football this week: Florida State (+316), Army (+265), Nebraska (+261), Virginia Tech (+251), Texas San Antonio (+223), Central Florida (+210), Buffalo (+205).
On the NFL slate we find: Denver (+249, Kansas City (+217) and Dallas (+209).
From this list, Central Florida and the Kansas City Chiefs appear as underdogs this week.
Black Gold and Texas Tea
This week’s group of college football favorites that find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been outgained in each of their last three games) include: Kansas State (yikes), Miami Ohio, Mississippi State and Texas San Antonio.
Two NFL favorites in need of a lube job are Baltimore and New Orleans.
To the best of our knowledge this is the first time the No. 1 team in the BCS poll has ever made an appearance on this list.
With the noose getting tighter and tighter with each passing week, and facing Baylor’s vaunted offense this Saturday, it would be no surprise to find the Wildcats huddling a team of BP lab experts come Sunday.
Let’s face it. There’ nothing more soothing for pair of sore eyes than a good-looking bod.
On the beach they are breathtaking and speak for themselves
On the football field they are underdogs that possess both the Better overall Offense and the Better overall Defense.
The both demand awareness and a second-look.
This week’s BOD’s look like UTEP in college football along with Detroit and Kansas City in the NFL.
Take It Or Leave It
A follow up on the five first year starting quarterbacks in the NFL finds they have struggled as favorites (4-9 SU and ATS) but excelled as underdogs (21-10-2 ATS).
When dressed as dogs off a SU and ATS loss these new recruits have been brilliant, going 10-0 ATS.
It will be interesting to see if Ryan Tanneyhill and Brandon Weeden can keep the ball rolling this week.
Stat Of The Week
Tennessee is 28-1 SU in its last 29 games against Vanderbilt. The one and only time they were installed as a dog in those contests they won the game straight up.
- April 23, 2014 - 7:05 PM
- Doc's Sports
- Offered at:
- betonline @ -135 Cleveland
Doc's Sports Wednesday MLB Free Play!
Wednesday MLB Free Play from Doc’s Sports Take #972 Cleveland Indians (-135) over Kansas City Royals (Wednesday, 7:05pm EST) The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals both exceeded expectations in a big way last year. The Indians grabbed a wild card berth with 92 wins while the Royals were in the race most of the way with 86. They were two of the best stories in baseball last season, but only one of those teams has a realistic shot of doing it once again. The Royals were successful in 2013 due to a dynamite bullpen and superb defense. Good bullpens are very hard to maintain from year-to-year as they are already finding out. Their bullpen ERA is over a full run higher than last season and two of their top guys are on the disabled on top of it. The Royals had unbelievable defensive metrics last season, and those will also be hard to repeat. The Indians, on the other hand, were successful last year mainly due to a well-balanced offense and good starting pitching numbers. Those variables are much more consistent from season-to-season, so I think the Tribe has a good chance to be in the thick of things again in 2014. Team ace Justin Masterson takes the ball for Cleveland on Wednesday, and he looked good last time out after a couple of shaky outings. On the other side is Jason Vargas for Kansas City – a guy who generally keeps his team in the game but won’t dominate the opposition. Big edge to the Indians there. Add in the home field advantage and the fact that Cleveland has the better overall team, and it all adds up to a play on the Indians here.