Inside The Stats
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
Just a week away from carving up the big bird, let’s take a look ‘Inside The Stats’ at some the ‘real numbers’ posted by teams, coaches and quarterbacks this 2012 football season to date.
How often does your team outplay its opponent, only to come up on the losing end of the scoreboard?
More often than you might imagine.
When a team wins the game but loses the total yardage n the stat sheet, these contests are referred to as ‘inside-out’ wins.
Fourteen such occurrences took place on the college gridiron last week. They included: Central Michigan/Eastern Michigan, Connecticut/Pittsburgh, Florida State/Virginia Tech, Massachusetts/Akron, Michigan/Northwestern, Missouri/Tennessee, North Texas/South Alabama, Oklahoma State/Baylor, San Diego State/Air Force, Texas A&M/Alabama, Rutgers/Army, UCLA/Washington State, Vanderbilt/Mississippi and Wyoming/New Mexico.
On the NFL front last week’s phony winners were: Baltimore/Oakland, Cincinnati/NY Giants, Dallas/Philadelphia, Houston/Chicago, New England/Buffalo, New Orleans/Atlanta and Tampa Bay/San Diego.
The Aztecs, Bruins, Cowboys, Minutemen and Tigers were each out-yarded 100 or more yards on the college front.
In the NFL the Bucs and Patriots took triple-digit stat losses in their victories.
According to the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, here are the largest variance of combined net total yardage in common opponent games in college football this week: Florida State (+316), Army (+265), Nebraska (+261), Virginia Tech (+251), Texas San Antonio (+223), Central Florida (+210), Buffalo (+205).
On the NFL slate we find: Denver (+249, Kansas City (+217) and Dallas (+209).
From this list, Central Florida and the Kansas City Chiefs appear as underdogs this week.
Black Gold and Texas Tea
This week’s group of college football favorites that find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been outgained in each of their last three games) include: Kansas State (yikes), Miami Ohio, Mississippi State and Texas San Antonio.
Two NFL favorites in need of a lube job are Baltimore and New Orleans.
To the best of our knowledge this is the first time the No. 1 team in the BCS poll has ever made an appearance on this list.
With the noose getting tighter and tighter with each passing week, and facing Baylor’s vaunted offense this Saturday, it would be no surprise to find the Wildcats huddling a team of BP lab experts come Sunday.
Let’s face it. There’ nothing more soothing for pair of sore eyes than a good-looking bod.
On the beach they are breathtaking and speak for themselves
On the football field they are underdogs that possess both the Better overall Offense and the Better overall Defense.
The both demand awareness and a second-look.
This week’s BOD’s look like UTEP in college football along with Detroit and Kansas City in the NFL.
Take It Or Leave It
A follow up on the five first year starting quarterbacks in the NFL finds they have struggled as favorites (4-9 SU and ATS) but excelled as underdogs (21-10-2 ATS).
When dressed as dogs off a SU and ATS loss these new recruits have been brilliant, going 10-0 ATS.
It will be interesting to see if Ryan Tanneyhill and Brandon Weeden can keep the ball rolling this week.
Stat Of The Week
Tennessee is 28-1 SU in its last 29 games against Vanderbilt. The one and only time they were installed as a dog in those contests they won the game straight up.
- Power Sports
- December 7, 2016 - 7:30 PM
- Offered at:
- betonline @ 100 Minnesota
1* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Though only 4th in their own division (Central), I actually have the Wild rated as the top team in the Western Conference right now. After concluding a three-game trek though Western Canada w/ a 2-1 win over Edmonton on Sunday, I believe the team has been severely mispriced as they get set to hit the other end of the country
Ironically, Toronto also just concluded a three-game trip through Western Canada. Like the Wild, they beat Edmonton, but lost to Vancouver and Calgary. Unlike the Wild, the Leafs' trip started in Edmonton and worked its way West. Though 10-9-5 overall, Toronto still finds itself in last place in the division as the Atlantic is shaping up to be quite challenging this year. While they've been far better at home than on the road, the Leafs still don't deserve to be the ML favorites in this matchup. They are just 5-11 SU playing w/ three days rest by the way. They are 28th in goals allowed plus were shutout in Calgary last week. The goaltending they'll face here is far stiffer.
What I like about Minnesota is the fact they are 2nd in the league in goals allowed and first in save percentage. Paced by Devan Dubnyk (league leader at .948), the Wild have outscored opponents so far by 15 goals. Dubnyk already has four shutouts and his GAA is 1.63. It's a massive edge for him over Toronto's Frederik Andersen. The Wild have won all five meetings with the Maple Leafs the last three seasons, including a 3-2 home win back in October. Great value here on the better team. 1* Minnesota