New Year's Day - Let's Go Bowling
By Marc Lawrence
January 1 signifies a new day and a new year and with it a bevy of college bowl games, sprinkled in with a handful of holiday hoops.
Let’s take a look at what’s trending on this New Year’s Day bowl card. All ATS records extracted form the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report.
Bowling For Dollars
Here is a look at the most recent trends inside each of the five major bowl games on tap today…
• Capital One Bowl: the favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.
• Gator Bowl: the favorite has cashed each of the last two years, snapping a four year run by the dogs.
• Orange Bowl: the favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five year, with the dog winning straight up four times.
• Outback Bowl: of the 8 ATS dog win six have been in straight up fashion.
• Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 6-1 SUATS the last seven games versus Big 10 opponents.
Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win…
Bad numbers… Big 10 bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS…
Ugly numbers… Big 10 bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus PAC 10/12 opponents.
Coach Me Up
• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SUATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.
• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SUATS loss.
• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.
• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.
• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.
My Favorite Martian
Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.
That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.
The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 31-14 ATS.
Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.
In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.
The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.
Stat Of The Day
The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.
- O (CAL at ARI)
- Power Sports
- February 12, 2016 - 9:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ Over 5.5 110
1* Over Flames/Coyotes (9:05 ET): Because the Flames went to a shootout last night (won!), I can only assume that the public will be "lining up" to go against them here. But that could be a mistake. The opponent, Arizona, has lost each of its last five games and given up a TON of goals in the process. Over is the best possible play here.
That three-game win streak has come with a lot of offensive production for the Flames. They tallied five goals in regulation last night in San Jose and then got credit for a sixth by winning the shootout. That came on the heels of two more wins where they scored four times each, all eight goals coming in regulation. As I said before, Arizona is giving up a TON of goals recently. It was only two to Vancouver in a loss Wednesday, but in the four games prior (again, all losses), the total was 21 (all but one in regulation)! The 'Yotes have given up a ton of shots during this time (35.6 per game) and goaltending numbers across the board are terrible.
In fact, this is a matchup of two teams that rank in the bottom three in the league in overall save percentage. Calgary is dead last in that department and will not have Kari Ramo to lean on tonight. Instead, it will be Jonas Hiller, who came in for the shootout last night due to Ramo getting hurt. The back to back situation thus does the Flames no favors here. Over the last five games, they've been fortunate to allow just 2.4 goals per game on an average of 32.0 shots. Their offensive production may decrease a little from last night, but I still expect to see plenty of goals on both sides here. The Over is 12-5 for Calgary this season if they scored 4+ goals the previous game. 1* Over Flames/Coyotes (9:05 ET):