New Year's Day - Let's Go Bowling
By Marc Lawrence
January 1 signifies a new day and a new year and with it a bevy of college bowl games, sprinkled in with a handful of holiday hoops.
Let’s take a look at what’s trending on this New Year’s Day bowl card. All ATS records extracted form the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report.
Bowling For Dollars
Here is a look at the most recent trends inside each of the five major bowl games on tap today…
• Capital One Bowl: the favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.
• Gator Bowl: the favorite has cashed each of the last two years, snapping a four year run by the dogs.
• Orange Bowl: the favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five year, with the dog winning straight up four times.
• Outback Bowl: of the 8 ATS dog win six have been in straight up fashion.
• Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 6-1 SUATS the last seven games versus Big 10 opponents.
Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win…
Bad numbers… Big 10 bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS…
Ugly numbers… Big 10 bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus PAC 10/12 opponents.
Coach Me Up
• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SUATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.
• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SUATS loss.
• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.
• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.
• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.
My Favorite Martian
Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.
That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.
The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 31-14 ATS.
Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.
In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.
The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.
Stat Of The Day
The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.
- New Mexico
- Dave Cokin
- October 1, 2016 - 4:00 PM
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ -7.5 -106 New Mexico
This is a 1* free play on Saturday's MWC game between San Jose State and New Mexico.
Kenny Potter's status for this game is uncertain. The San Jose QB was unable to go against Iowa State and he's very iffy as of now for this week's game. He has a leg injury that won't require surgery but if the swelling doesn't subside, he won't be able to play. If that's the case, then it's freshman Josh Love, and the rookie really struggled at Iowa State.
Beyond that, the Spartans have absolutely horrific on defense. They've been outgained by a whopping 547 yards in the losses to Tulsa, Utah and San Jose State. The defensive rushing stats in those games were abysmal, 5.5 yards per carry and all three opponents went run-heavy on San Jose. That will definitely be the case Saturday as New Mexico prefers to run out of their option as much as possible.
I think we're catching a good spot here, as New Mexico has had an extra week to prep and should be extremely motivated after losing two games they really should have won. The bye week should be a real plus coming out of those two tough losses, and New Mexico also has a revenge motive from a poor showing against the Spartans last season.
It looks like a good matchup for the Lobos in terms of strength vs. weakness, and if Porter is unable to play, this is a bargain price in my opinion even with the bump from where it opened on Sunday night. I'll therefore go ahead and lay it right now with New Mexico.