New Year's Day - Let's Go Bowling
By Marc Lawrence
January 1 signifies a new day and a new year and with it a bevy of college bowl games, sprinkled in with a handful of holiday hoops.
Let’s take a look at what’s trending on this New Year’s Day bowl card. All ATS records extracted form the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report.
Bowling For Dollars
Here is a look at the most recent trends inside each of the five major bowl games on tap today…
• Capital One Bowl: the favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.
• Gator Bowl: the favorite has cashed each of the last two years, snapping a four year run by the dogs.
• Orange Bowl: the favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five year, with the dog winning straight up four times.
• Outback Bowl: of the 8 ATS dog win six have been in straight up fashion.
• Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 6-1 SUATS the last seven games versus Big 10 opponents.
Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win…
Bad numbers… Big 10 bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS…
Ugly numbers… Big 10 bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus PAC 10/12 opponents.
Coach Me Up
• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SUATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.
• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SUATS loss.
• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.
• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.
• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.
My Favorite Martian
Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.
That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.
The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 31-14 ATS.
Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.
In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.
The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.
Stat Of The Day
The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.
- O (DUKE at ARMY)
- Matt Fargo
- October 10, 2015 - 12:00 PM
- Offered at:
- top bet @ Over 47 -110
This is a 1* Free Play on the Duke/Army Over.
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for this game. Duke is off to a 3-2 start this season as the offense has been inconsistent but the defense has picked up the slack by allowing just 269.8 ypg and 10.6 ppg, good for 9th and 5th in the country respectively. Because of the stop unit, the Blue Devils have stayed below the total in all five of their games this season. This is not a particularly good matchup however for another low scoring game as the offense should have no problem scoring a bunch here. The offense was held to 10 points three games back against Northwestern and nine points against Boston College last time out and those are two of the top three scoring defenses in the country. In comparison, Army is ranked 82nd in scoring defense so Duke can get back to normal here. The Black Knights have had a tough luck season as they are 1-4 with the four losses coming by 2, 5, 3 and 6 points with the last coming against Penn St. Even though the schedule has been pretty difficult, they are averaging a solid 27.6 ppg so even coming close to that here will push this one way over as we can expect Duke to get its fair share of points. The over is 7-2-1 in the Blue Devils last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while the over is 11-5 in the Black Knights last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play Over (321) Duke Blue Devils/(322) Army Black Knights
Fargo is off to a profitable start on the gridiron this season as he has posted SIZEABLE profits of +$14,060 overall! In college football, he is a SIZZLING 27-22 +$3,470 YTD after THREE of FIVE Winning Weeks and going back he is a MASSIVE +$16,021 in CFB since 2013! He is ready for a huge Week Six as he has Winners Thursday, Friday and Saturday! Do not miss any of it!
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