New Year's Day - Let's Go Bowling
By Marc Lawrence
January 1 signifies a new day and a new year and with it a bevy of college bowl games, sprinkled in with a handful of holiday hoops.
Let’s take a look at what’s trending on this New Year’s Day bowl card. All ATS records extracted form the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report.
Bowling For Dollars
Here is a look at the most recent trends inside each of the five major bowl games on tap today…
• Capital One Bowl: the favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.
• Gator Bowl: the favorite has cashed each of the last two years, snapping a four year run by the dogs.
• Orange Bowl: the favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five year, with the dog winning straight up four times.
• Outback Bowl: of the 8 ATS dog win six have been in straight up fashion.
• Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 6-1 SUATS the last seven games versus Big 10 opponents.
Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win…
Bad numbers… Big 10 bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS…
Ugly numbers… Big 10 bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus PAC 10/12 opponents.
Coach Me Up
• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SUATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.
• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SUATS loss.
• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.
• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.
• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.
My Favorite Martian
Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.
That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.
The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 31-14 ATS.
Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.
In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.
The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.
Stat Of The Day
The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.
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1* Washington (8:15 ET): The Nationals shut out the Royals in yday's series opener, winning 2-0. With Tanner Roark on the bump tonight, I feel that they come in highly undervalued as KC has now lost six of its last seven overall. Roark's team start record might only be 2-3, but he has a 2.03 ERA and 1.194 WHIP, so he's pitched effectively. Tonight, I expect him to pitch well again, only this time pick up the victory.
Roark was the very definition of a "hard luck" loser his last time out as he didn't allow a single run over seven innings (only two hits), yet the team ultimately came up short in Philadelphia, losing 3-0. Interestingly, the Nats haven't lost since. Roark also allowed no runs on two hits the start before his last, only this time he added 15 K's and the Nats did win that one, 3-0. On the season, there have been three times when Roark has gone at least seven innings w/o giving up a single run.
As for Kansas City, they've now been shut out three times in the last four games, so Roark is the last guy they want to see here. Also, the Royals will be sending the struggling Chris Young (6.14 ERA) to the hill. Young has allowed at least one home run in every start this season. The Nats are now 10-3 on the road and a perfect 4-0 vs. the American League. They're simply "too tough" for the Royals to handle right now. 1* Washington