New Year's Day - Let's Go Bowling
By Marc Lawrence
January 1 signifies a new day and a new year and with it a bevy of college bowl games, sprinkled in with a handful of holiday hoops.
Let’s take a look at what’s trending on this New Year’s Day bowl card. All ATS records extracted form the 2012 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report.
Bowling For Dollars
Here is a look at the most recent trends inside each of the five major bowl games on tap today…
• Capital One Bowl: the favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.
• Gator Bowl: the favorite has cashed each of the last two years, snapping a four year run by the dogs.
• Orange Bowl: the favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five year, with the dog winning straight up four times.
• Outback Bowl: of the 8 ATS dog win six have been in straight up fashion.
• Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 6-1 SUATS the last seven games versus Big 10 opponents.
Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win…
Bad numbers… Big 10 bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS…
Ugly numbers… Big 10 bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus PAC 10/12 opponents.
Coach Me Up
• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SUATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.
• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SUATS loss.
• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.
• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.
• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.
My Favorite Martian
Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.
That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.
The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 31-14 ATS.
Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.
In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.
The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.
Stat Of The Day
The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.
- Power Sports
- December 7, 2016 - 7:30 PM
- Offered at:
- betonline @ 100 Minnesota
1* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Though only 4th in their own division (Central), I actually have the Wild rated as the top team in the Western Conference right now. After concluding a three-game trek though Western Canada w/ a 2-1 win over Edmonton on Sunday, I believe the team has been severely mispriced as they get set to hit the other end of the country
Ironically, Toronto also just concluded a three-game trip through Western Canada. Like the Wild, they beat Edmonton, but lost to Vancouver and Calgary. Unlike the Wild, the Leafs' trip started in Edmonton and worked its way West. Though 10-9-5 overall, Toronto still finds itself in last place in the division as the Atlantic is shaping up to be quite challenging this year. While they've been far better at home than on the road, the Leafs still don't deserve to be the ML favorites in this matchup. They are just 5-11 SU playing w/ three days rest by the way. They are 28th in goals allowed plus were shutout in Calgary last week. The goaltending they'll face here is far stiffer.
What I like about Minnesota is the fact they are 2nd in the league in goals allowed and first in save percentage. Paced by Devan Dubnyk (league leader at .948), the Wild have outscored opponents so far by 15 goals. Dubnyk already has four shutouts and his GAA is 1.63. It's a massive edge for him over Toronto's Frederik Andersen. The Wild have won all five meetings with the Maple Leafs the last three seasons, including a 3-2 home win back in October. Great value here on the better team. 1* Minnesota