Handicapping Myths 1.2 - Parlays Are For Suckers.
Handicapping Myths 1.2 - Parlays Are For Suckers.
The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I'm still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that had yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.
One of the most common mistakes that gamblers make, is setting out rules and guidelines that only limit their ability to turn a profit. I'm a firm believer that rules are meant to be broken, and following strict guidelines will only prevent you from taking advantage of every available opportunity. In this series of articles, I will discuss some of the most common "myths" that are associated with sports handicapping.
Myth #2: Parlays Are A Sucker Bet.
Unlike my last article, this particular myth isn't completely false. For the most part, playing parlays isn't a good idea. There are exceptions to every rule though, and I believe in certain situations a parlay could present better value than a straight bet.
I don't play a lot of parlays, but when I do, it's normally on the side and total of the same game as apposed to going for two outcomes in different games. The logic being that in certain cases, one outcome could directly influence the other, giving the player an added advantage on the house.
For example, if you have a team with a prolific offense taking on a team with a stellar defense, it would make sense that a low scoring game would favor the defensive team. It doesn't always work out that way, but by focusing on these type of situations, you can improve your odds.
In the early days of online gambling, back in the mid 1990s, many sportsbooks didn't allow you to parlay the side and total of the same game, because it was believed that this gave players too much of an advantage. I believe that these days almost all the larger casinos and sportsbooks accept such wagers.
The bottom line is, playing parlays isn't something you should do every day, but don't let anybody tell you that "only suckers play parlays". Successful gamblers will bet on any game, any event, any situation when they have odds in their favor.
If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.
- Brandon Shively
- August 26, 2016 - 10:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 20 -110 Hawaii
This is a 1* Free Pick on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
This game is being played on a neutral in Australia. I don’t think that this neutral playing site will benefit either team so I am going to exploit the head to head matchup here. Cal is a team that went 9-27 combined from 2012 to 2014 before winning 8 games last year, behind a QB (Goff) that got drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. This is also a Cal team that has only been a favorite away from home 3 times in the last 4 years. Cal lost their top 6 receivers and 5 of their top 6 tacklers. While Cal will have a reliable QB in Davis Webb from Texas Tech, he doesn’t have a lot of talent around him and it will take time for Webb to get in sync with these new receivers. I will also note that Cal has a new offensive coordinator. While it’s still the ‘Air Raid’ offense, there are new schemes being installed and it will take time before the Bears are putting up 40+ points. With only 3 seniors starting on defense, I like Hawaii to score enough points to cover this spread.
Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in Week 1 the last five years and are undervalued in this spot. There's a new Head Coach for Hawaii and he used to play for the Rainbow Warriors. Nick Rolovich was the QB for Hawaii and will have former teammate Brian SMith as the offensive coordinator and associate head coach. I think these two guys are going to gel great and Hawaii can only get better as a team. Rolovich was the OC at Nevada the last 4 years. Rolovich came to Nevada after a wildly productive four-year run at Hawaii, where he directed one of the top passing offenses in the nation. He was the quarterbacks coach all four seasons and spent the last two years as the Warriors' offensive coordinator.In Rolovich’s first game with Nevada in 2012, Rolovich beat Cal, 31-24, as a 12 point road dog, so their is some ‘deja vu’ here and a great storyline.
Hawaii returns 9 players on offense (73 offensive line starts). Senior QB Woolsey should be able to lead the team on some scores against this soft Cal defense. While Hawaii’s weakness is their secondary, the Cal Bears passing game is not going to be up to full speed yet. I think Hawaii will be improved offensively from last year and Cal will struggle to score, especially touchdowns and the defense is not good enough to offset the offensive regression.
Special Teams: Senior utility kicker Sanchez was one of only five kickers nationally to handle all duties. As a field goal kicker, he converted 8-of-11 attempts, including two from 47 yards and a long of 50 to earn all-Mountain West Honorable Mention. So we have a quality FG kicker on our side here as well. While we are looking for touchdowns, all scores will help and this game should have it’s fair share of field goal opportunities. (1* Hawaii plus the points)
Brandon Shively is a documented *$47,860 in profits since 2013 in NFL/CFB combined!* Brandon torched the College Football books in the ‘14-’15 season hitting a documented 67.5% of his picks during the regular season. Football is his strongest sport and looks forward to building your bankroll this season with him on Covers! If you are looking to maximize your profits this football season, Brandon says he will do it for you and you will have a fun time winning while watching your bankroll grow and SMASHING your ‘Book’ all at the same time!