College FB tech notes this weekend!
LOUISVILLE at RUTGERS (Thursday, November 29)...Cards only 4-7 vs. number this season (1-4 last five), 'Gers 7-4 vs. spread in 2012, but only 2-2 last four. Charlie Strong also just 1-3 vs. line away TY after 11-2 last two years away vs. spread. Strong has won and covered last two in series but very narrow last year (16-14 at Papa John's laying 1.5). Tech edge-slight to Rutgers, based on recent trends.
KENT STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (MAC title game at Ford Field, Detroit, Friday, November 30)...Teams didn't meet TY but NIU won big 40-10 LY. NIU has failed to cover as chalk in last two MAC title games, indeed the favored team has failed to cover the last four MAC title games. NIU 7-1 vs. line last 8 TY, but Kent State 10-1 last 11 TY. Golden Flashes have also covered last four as dog TY. Tech edge-slight to Kent State, based on team and recent MAC title game dog trends.
UCLA at STANFORD (Pac-12 title game, Friday, November 30)...Note conference title game dogs were 5-1 vs. line LY, including UCLA cover at Oregon. Mora 3-0 as dog TY, Tree no covers last three on Farm and just 2-4 vs. line as host TY. Tech edge-will update after matchup confirmed.
CINCINNATI at UCONN...Pasqualoni gets bowl-eligible with win! Pasqualoni now has two SU wins and three covers in a row. Bearcats have covered 5 of last 6 away from Nippert Stadium, and 4 of last 5 this season for Butch Jones. Huskies four straight covers in series! Tech edge-UConn, based on series and team trends.
PITTSBURGH at SOUTH FLORIDA...Panthers also get bowl-eligible with win. Skip's spread slump continues, he's 3-8 vs. line TY, 4-16 last 20 on board since early 2011. Skip had previously been a top-notch pointspread coach. Bulls 1-8 vs. spread last nine in Tampa. Pitt has covered 3 of last 4 away TY, and Panthers have won and covered last four meetings. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team and series trends.
OKLAHOMA at TCU...These two met famously in home-and-home in 2005 and '08 with Frogs scoring major upset in '05 opener at Norman then suffering only loss of '08 campaign in return game vs. Sooners, also at Norman. Stoops so-so 5-6 vs. line TY and no covers last three or four of last five in 2012, though 3-2 vs. line (all as chalk) away this season. Frogs no wins or covers in three Big 12 home games this season, Patterson 3-3 as dog TY after 3-2 in role previous five seasons. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent trends.
TEXAS at KANSAS STATE...KSU has covered last four in series including wins by Bill Snyder over Mack each of past two seasons. Mack just 3-4 vs. line immediately after a SU loss the past two seasons. Snyder 5-1 vs. spread at home TY and 9-3 vs. spread last 12 at home. He's also 17-7 overall vs spread the past two seasons. Mack 1-1 as dog TY, 5-8 in role since 2008. Tech edge-Kansas State, based on team and series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR...Absolute blowout series in recent years, with OSU winning and covering last six, scores of 59-24, 55-28, 34-7, 34-6, 45-14, and 66-24 the last six years! Win margin 31.7 ppg the last six meetings! Gundy 26-11 vs. spread since 2010 season. Cover last week at OU was first on road TY after three straight losses, but Gundy still 13-5 vs. points away since 2010. Art Briles 3-2 vs. line in Waco TY, now 9-2 in role since LY, also 4-1 as dog TY though only 3-7 as "short" the previous two seasons. Tech edge-Oklahoma State, based on series and team trends.
BOISE STATE at NEVADA...Series has turned around a bit in recent years as Pack has covered last three and four of last five meetings. Only once since 1999 decade has Nevada actually beaten Broncos SU, however, and that was epic 34-31 OT win in 2010 that knocked Boise out of BCS. But Pack enters this season-ender in midst of wicked 7-game spread losing streak, and Ault 1-9 vs. line last 10 this season. Broncs 4-1 vs. line away in 2012, 15-4 since 2010, 20-6 since 2009, 26-7 vs. number away since 2008. Tech edge-Boise State, based on team trends.
KANSAS at WEST VIRGINIA...Holgorsen 1-4 vs. line last five at Morgantown, 2-6 against number last 8 at home since early last season. Although WVU enters this finale with spread covers in its last two after dropping previous four vs. line. Also with a win at ISU after five SU losses in a row. Weis only 2-3 vs. line away Ty but 3-2 getting 20 or more. Tech edge-slight to Kansas, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at TEXAS STATE...DeWayne Walker no SU wins last 10 since opener vs. Sac State, 2-8 vs. line last ten this season. Fran 4-2 vs. line last six TY, and has covered last three at San Marcos in 2012. Bobcats 1-0-1 as chalk TY. Tech edge-Texas State, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS STATE...Gus Malzahn hot with wins and covers last four for Ark State this season. Red Wolves 17-6 vs. spread in regular season the past two seasons. MTSU also soaring with 7-2-1 spread mark last ten this season and SU wins last four. Stockstill has lost and failed to cover last two vs. Ark State. Tech edge-slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...FAU 8-1 vs. line last nine this season, although the L was in most-recent game vs. FIU. Ragin' Cajuns 3-2 vs. line away TY, but 10-3 vs. line away since LY and 16-4 since 2010. Tech edge-slight to FAU, based on recent trends.
SOUTH ALABAMA at HAWAII...Road team is 9-2 vs. line in USA games this season, though 0-2 last two, and USA has failed to cover its last 2 on road or last 4 overall. Hawaii turning things around with easy covers last two this season. Tech edge-Hawaii, based on recent trends.
UCF at TULSA (Conference USA title game)...This is the third time these two have met in CUSA title game, with the teams splitting the first two. Quick rematch of Tulsa's 23-21 win and very narrow cover on Nov. 17. O'Leary 3-3 vs. line away TY after 1-5 mark in 2011. O'Leary 1-1 as dog TY but 16-9 in role since 2007. Tech edge-slight to UCF, based on O'Leary's extended dog marks.
GEORGIA vs. ALABAMA (SEC title game at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA)...Teams haven't met since 2008, when Bama won at Athens. Nick only 6-6 vs. line TY after 26-13 mark the past three seasons against number. Richt 1-0 as dog TY but was 0-6 in role the previous two seasons. Tech edge-Bama, based on team trends.
GEORGIA TECH vs. FLORIDA STATE (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)...Jackets back into title game with 6-6 SU record. Paul Johnson 2-0 vs. FSU but hasn't faced Noles since 2009. FSU only 2-7 vs. line last nine this season, GT had covered last three in 2012 prior to Georgia game. Noles 0-5 vs. spread away from home this season. Tech edge- Georgia Tech, based on team trends.
NEBRASKA vs. WISCONSIN (Big Ten title game Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)...Rematch of Huskers' 30-27 win (but non-cover) at Lincoln back on Sept. 29. Badgers have covered the last two reg. season games vs. Huskers. Bo Pelini had covered last four TY prior to Iowa season-ender, he's also won last 6 SU. Though NU just 1-4 vs. line away TY and 1-6-1 last 8 away from Lincoln. Bielema 4-7-1 vs. line away since LY but 3-2 in role this season. Bielema 3-1 as dog this season, 6-2 since LY in role. Tech edge-slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.
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1* Toronto Run Line (7:07 ET): Please note that I'm recommending laying the -1.5 with Blue Jays here. I think they have enough advantages to beat the Padres by multiple runs in Monday's opener. San Diego just took two of three from Washington, but Toronto has the most Interleague wins (11) of any team in baseball.
Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez has a 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 2 ER or less in six consecutive starts. His last loss came all the way back on April 22nd. While the Padres' lineup has homered in 22 consecutive games, this will be the franchise's first foray ever into Toronto. Rogers Centre is known for being a hitter's park, but I'm unconvinced that San Diego will able to take advantage. They are just 19-31 in road games overall, including 1-5 as a dog of +200 to +225.
San Diego's Colin Rea has a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP his L3 starts. He also gave up three home runs in his last start. That's key. Sanchez has allowed only two in his last six starts and if you take away the four he gave up in an uncharacteristically poor showing vs. Baltimore on June 12th, he's allowed just three since the start of May! The Blue Jays really need this one as the fight for Wild Card/playoff position. The Padres have been surprisingly competitive since the Break, but that ends here. 1* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)