College FB tech notes this weekend!
LOUISVILLE at RUTGERS (Thursday, November 29)...Cards only 4-7 vs. number this season (1-4 last five), 'Gers 7-4 vs. spread in 2012, but only 2-2 last four. Charlie Strong also just 1-3 vs. line away TY after 11-2 last two years away vs. spread. Strong has won and covered last two in series but very narrow last year (16-14 at Papa John's laying 1.5). Tech edge-slight to Rutgers, based on recent trends.
KENT STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (MAC title game at Ford Field, Detroit, Friday, November 30)...Teams didn't meet TY but NIU won big 40-10 LY. NIU has failed to cover as chalk in last two MAC title games, indeed the favored team has failed to cover the last four MAC title games. NIU 7-1 vs. line last 8 TY, but Kent State 10-1 last 11 TY. Golden Flashes have also covered last four as dog TY. Tech edge-slight to Kent State, based on team and recent MAC title game dog trends.
UCLA at STANFORD (Pac-12 title game, Friday, November 30)...Note conference title game dogs were 5-1 vs. line LY, including UCLA cover at Oregon. Mora 3-0 as dog TY, Tree no covers last three on Farm and just 2-4 vs. line as host TY. Tech edge-will update after matchup confirmed.
CINCINNATI at UCONN...Pasqualoni gets bowl-eligible with win! Pasqualoni now has two SU wins and three covers in a row. Bearcats have covered 5 of last 6 away from Nippert Stadium, and 4 of last 5 this season for Butch Jones. Huskies four straight covers in series! Tech edge-UConn, based on series and team trends.
PITTSBURGH at SOUTH FLORIDA...Panthers also get bowl-eligible with win. Skip's spread slump continues, he's 3-8 vs. line TY, 4-16 last 20 on board since early 2011. Skip had previously been a top-notch pointspread coach. Bulls 1-8 vs. spread last nine in Tampa. Pitt has covered 3 of last 4 away TY, and Panthers have won and covered last four meetings. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team and series trends.
OKLAHOMA at TCU...These two met famously in home-and-home in 2005 and '08 with Frogs scoring major upset in '05 opener at Norman then suffering only loss of '08 campaign in return game vs. Sooners, also at Norman. Stoops so-so 5-6 vs. line TY and no covers last three or four of last five in 2012, though 3-2 vs. line (all as chalk) away this season. Frogs no wins or covers in three Big 12 home games this season, Patterson 3-3 as dog TY after 3-2 in role previous five seasons. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent trends.
TEXAS at KANSAS STATE...KSU has covered last four in series including wins by Bill Snyder over Mack each of past two seasons. Mack just 3-4 vs. line immediately after a SU loss the past two seasons. Snyder 5-1 vs. spread at home TY and 9-3 vs. spread last 12 at home. He's also 17-7 overall vs spread the past two seasons. Mack 1-1 as dog TY, 5-8 in role since 2008. Tech edge-Kansas State, based on team and series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR...Absolute blowout series in recent years, with OSU winning and covering last six, scores of 59-24, 55-28, 34-7, 34-6, 45-14, and 66-24 the last six years! Win margin 31.7 ppg the last six meetings! Gundy 26-11 vs. spread since 2010 season. Cover last week at OU was first on road TY after three straight losses, but Gundy still 13-5 vs. points away since 2010. Art Briles 3-2 vs. line in Waco TY, now 9-2 in role since LY, also 4-1 as dog TY though only 3-7 as "short" the previous two seasons. Tech edge-Oklahoma State, based on series and team trends.
BOISE STATE at NEVADA...Series has turned around a bit in recent years as Pack has covered last three and four of last five meetings. Only once since 1999 decade has Nevada actually beaten Broncos SU, however, and that was epic 34-31 OT win in 2010 that knocked Boise out of BCS. But Pack enters this season-ender in midst of wicked 7-game spread losing streak, and Ault 1-9 vs. line last 10 this season. Broncs 4-1 vs. line away in 2012, 15-4 since 2010, 20-6 since 2009, 26-7 vs. number away since 2008. Tech edge-Boise State, based on team trends.
KANSAS at WEST VIRGINIA...Holgorsen 1-4 vs. line last five at Morgantown, 2-6 against number last 8 at home since early last season. Although WVU enters this finale with spread covers in its last two after dropping previous four vs. line. Also with a win at ISU after five SU losses in a row. Weis only 2-3 vs. line away Ty but 3-2 getting 20 or more. Tech edge-slight to Kansas, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at TEXAS STATE...DeWayne Walker no SU wins last 10 since opener vs. Sac State, 2-8 vs. line last ten this season. Fran 4-2 vs. line last six TY, and has covered last three at San Marcos in 2012. Bobcats 1-0-1 as chalk TY. Tech edge-Texas State, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS STATE...Gus Malzahn hot with wins and covers last four for Ark State this season. Red Wolves 17-6 vs. spread in regular season the past two seasons. MTSU also soaring with 7-2-1 spread mark last ten this season and SU wins last four. Stockstill has lost and failed to cover last two vs. Ark State. Tech edge-slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...FAU 8-1 vs. line last nine this season, although the L was in most-recent game vs. FIU. Ragin' Cajuns 3-2 vs. line away TY, but 10-3 vs. line away since LY and 16-4 since 2010. Tech edge-slight to FAU, based on recent trends.
SOUTH ALABAMA at HAWAII...Road team is 9-2 vs. line in USA games this season, though 0-2 last two, and USA has failed to cover its last 2 on road or last 4 overall. Hawaii turning things around with easy covers last two this season. Tech edge-Hawaii, based on recent trends.
UCF at TULSA (Conference USA title game)...This is the third time these two have met in CUSA title game, with the teams splitting the first two. Quick rematch of Tulsa's 23-21 win and very narrow cover on Nov. 17. O'Leary 3-3 vs. line away TY after 1-5 mark in 2011. O'Leary 1-1 as dog TY but 16-9 in role since 2007. Tech edge-slight to UCF, based on O'Leary's extended dog marks.
GEORGIA vs. ALABAMA (SEC title game at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA)...Teams haven't met since 2008, when Bama won at Athens. Nick only 6-6 vs. line TY after 26-13 mark the past three seasons against number. Richt 1-0 as dog TY but was 0-6 in role the previous two seasons. Tech edge-Bama, based on team trends.
GEORGIA TECH vs. FLORIDA STATE (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)...Jackets back into title game with 6-6 SU record. Paul Johnson 2-0 vs. FSU but hasn't faced Noles since 2009. FSU only 2-7 vs. line last nine this season, GT had covered last three in 2012 prior to Georgia game. Noles 0-5 vs. spread away from home this season. Tech edge- Georgia Tech, based on team trends.
NEBRASKA vs. WISCONSIN (Big Ten title game Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)...Rematch of Huskers' 30-27 win (but non-cover) at Lincoln back on Sept. 29. Badgers have covered the last two reg. season games vs. Huskers. Bo Pelini had covered last four TY prior to Iowa season-ender, he's also won last 6 SU. Though NU just 1-4 vs. line away TY and 1-6-1 last 8 away from Lincoln. Bielema 4-7-1 vs. line away since LY but 3-2 in role this season. Bielema 3-1 as dog this season, 6-2 since LY in role. Tech edge-slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.
- Will Rogers
- November 28, 2015 - 7:30 PM
- Offered at:
- pinnacle @ -3.5 -106 Stanford
Notre Dame @ Stanford -4 7:30 EST
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are on the bubble as far as the playoffs are concerned, and they need a win here at Stanford, and possibly some help from teams like Nebraska, Penn State or TCU. The Cardinal's playoff hopes are a little slimmer, but they've already punched a ticket to the PAC12 Championship Game, and a win over the Irish could keep them in the discussion. My money is on a Stanford team that has a far more impressive body of work.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Christian McCaffrey - The Heisman hopeful ran for 192 yards on 29 carries last week, and he also rank back a 98 yard kick for a TD. He should find plenty of room to run against a Notre Dame team that surrendered 214 rushing yards to Boston College last week.
2. Injuries - The Irish are really banged up, and last week they lost leading rusher C.J. Prosise to a high ankle sprain. He's not likely to play on Saturday versus Stanford.
3. X-Factor - The Cardinal are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games, and they've covered in seven of their last nine versus a team with a winning record.
Selection: This is a play on the Stanford Cardinal (Free)
- Week 13 NCAAF Line Watch
Nov 25, 2015
- See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bets
Nov 24, 2015
- Week 12 NFL Power Rankings
Nov 24, 2015
- NHL betting road map: Close games costing Canucks
Nov 23, 2015
- NFL Line Watch Week 12
Nov 23, 2015