NCAA Tournament Tidbits
The 2013 NCAA Basketball Tournament is finally here. Below are some quick facts and thoughts to consider when filling out your office bracket.
Overall #1 seed has won 5 of last 6 NCAA national championships.
In 2011 when #3 seed Connecticut won the title, it was the first time in history that no #1 or #2 seed made the Final Four.
Teams seeded #1 thru #3 have won 30 of the past 34 NCAA Championships:
#1 seed (19 times 56%)
#2 seed (6 times 18%)
#3 seed (5 times 15%)
#4 or worse (4 times 12%)
First Round Dominance:
#1 seeds are 88-0 (100%) SU versus #16 seeds.
#2 seeds are 82-6 (93%) SU versus #15 seeds, however two #15 seeds won last year.
#3 seeds are 78-10 (89%) SU versus #14 seeds
#4 seeds are 69-19 (78%) SU versus #13 seeds
Biggest pointspread upset in NCAA Tournament history occurred last year when #15 Norfolk State (+21.5) defeated #2 Missouri, 86-84.
Odds & Ends:
Georgetown has been eliminated four straight times by a double-digit seeded opponent in the NCAA Tournament. The Hoyas have lost to #10, #14, #11, and #10 seeds (2008-2012).
Oregon is a #12 seed, while UCLA is a #6 seed, despite Ducks being -1.5 favorite and winning the Pac-12 tournament versus the Bruins on a neutral court? A strange seeding which shows how the oddsmakers and the selection committee often have different opinions.
- New York
- Bryan Power
- March 28, 2015 - 8:00 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 16.5 -105 New York
1* New York (8:05 ET): Warning: This will not be the most "fun" play of the day. The Knicks are obviously horrible, but as you can tell that's been taken into account, too much so in fact, in my opinion. A spread this high should be reserved for Golden State, Cleveland or the Clippers. Not a Bulls team that's 0-4 ATS the L3 yrs at -12.5 or higher.
Sometimes you have to just trust your numbers and that's what I'm doing here as my personal power ratings indicate that this line should be a couple points lower. Note New York is actually a solid 7-4 against the spread this year when taking 12.5 or more points. They are coming off a cover last night as they lost to Boston by only four at home. Betting isn't just about "taking good teams," rather its about the numbers and in this instance the spread is just too high.
Chicago is also likely due for a letdown after beating Toronto Wednesday. This season has seen the Bulls go 6-10 ATS following a double digit win. They are also 9-16 ATS after scoring 105+ their previous game. When these teams met here back in December, the line was "only" -12.5 and the Knicks covered there, losing by only six. Believe it or not, but there is value tonight in taking the worst team in the league. 1* New York.
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