Smart Box Series: Deep Six
By Marc Lawrence
With the season approaching the mid way point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in GAME SIX situations.
Our well-oiled database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off one-loss exact. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.
These Game Six travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in the Game Six scenarios going 89-59-2 ATS in all games since 1980. That’s represents a rock solid 60% wining spread mark.
This week finds qualifying three teams taking to the road, namely Middle Tennessee State, TCU and Tennessee.
Better yet, when priced as dogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 38-18-1 ATS.
The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe sporting a winning record as they improve to 27-10-1 ATS in these spirited contests.
TCU and Tennessee look to be ‘devilish’ sides on this week’s card. Good luck…
- St. Louis
- April 21, 2014 - 7:10 PM
- Art Aronson
- Offered at:
- top bet @ -106 St. Louis
1* Free Play St. Louis Cardinals.
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Coming off a loss yesterday, I like the powerhouse Cardinals to bounce back and earn a series opening win over the Mets. The Cardinals took five of seven between the team’s last year and have won eight of the last 11 in this series. The Cardinals will send Tyler Lyons (NR) to the hill in place of injured starter Joe Kelly. Lyons holds a 3.32 ERA with 18 strikeouts over his first 19 Triple-A frames this season. Lyons did start eight games in the majors as a rookie last year so we aren’t backing a completely “green” pitcher here: "We just hope he can carry that momentum forward here Monday," Cardinals’ manager Mike Matheny assessed last night. "He did a great job for us when he got the opportunity last year. And we go with that hot hand." New York gives the nod to Jenrry Mejia (2-0, 2.81), who has enjoyed a surprisingly successful start to the season after entering with a 2-6 record and 4.53 ERA in 11 career starts. I look at this as a small sample size and fully expect the Cardinals’ offense to wake up and take it to Mejia tonight, after it struck out 12 times against Nationals’ pitching yesterday. Home field hasn’t exactly been kind to the Mets this season. Despite winning yesterday’s game in extra innings, the Mets carry a 3-6 record at Citi Field thus far. The Cardinals meanwhile are 7-6 on the road and always seem to find to a way to get separation from the pack. Consider the Cards.