College FB Bowl Tech Notes!
BOWLING GREEN vs. SAN JOSE STATE (Military Bowl, Thursday, December 27)...San Jose has been on quite a pointspread run since last season, covering last four and ten of twelve in 2012, 13 of last 15 since late 2011, and 18 of last 22 on board since early 2011. Spartans have also covered their last eight away from home. Bowling Green also closed fast in 2012 with covers in seven of its last eight games this season. Falcs have lost and failed to cover their last two bowls and haven’t won and covered in a bowl game since 2004 against Memphis in GMAC Bowl. Tech edge-San Jose State, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI vs. DUKE (Belk Charlotte Bowl, Thursday, December 27)...First Duke bowl game since Fred Goldsmith’s 1994 Blue Devils faced Wisconsin and lost to Badgers 34-20 in Hall of Fame (now Outback) Bowl in Tampa; prior to that, Duke hadn’t “bowled” since 1989 under Steve Spurrier and hasn’t won a bowl since beating Arkansas 7-6 in the 1961 Cotton Bowl! Blue Devils closed slowly this season by losing and failing to cover their last four games, but HC David Cutcliffe is 2-0 SU in bowls dating to his Ole Miss days. Cutcliffe is 5-1 vs. line last six against non-ACC opposition. Tech edge-Duke, based on team trends.
BAYLOR vs. UCLA (Holiday Bowl, Thursday, December 27)...Baylor closed season on an uptick with covers in its last five games, and Bears 16-8 overall vs. number the last two season. Art Briles only 1-3 SU in bowl games, however. Bruins 8-5 vs. line in Jim Mora debut season. Tech edge-slight to Baylor, based on team trends.
OHIO vs. UL-MONROE (Independence Bowl, Friday, December 28)... Solich hit the skids vs. number as 2012 progressed, only 1-7 vs. spread last eight TY. Solich also no covers last four on road TY. Solich won and covered his bowl games last year (vs. Utah State) but previously was 0-3 SU and vs. line as bowl coach with the Bobcats. Meanwhile, ULM 6-1 vs. line away from home this season and 8-1 against spread last nine away from Malone Stadium since late 2011. Tech edge-UL-Monroe, based on team trends.
RUTGERS vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Russell Athletic Bowl, Friday, December 28)...Rutgers cooled off down the stretch this season, losing and failing to cover four of is last five games, but Beamer had more problems, only 3-9 against the line this season. Hokies only 7-20 last 27 games on board since late in 2010 campaign, and Beamer only 4-7 vs. spread last his last 11 bowl games. Scarlet Knights 16-9 vs. number overall since 2011. Tech edge-Rutgers, based on recent Beamer spread woes.
MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS TECH (Meineke Texas Bowl, Friday, December 28)...Rematch of 2006 Insight Bowl when Minnesota blew a huge lead to lose in OT and Glen Mason was dismissed after the game. Gophers last bowled in 2009 but have lost four straight in postseason (1-3 vs. line in those) since 20-16 win over Alabama in 2004 Liberty Bowl. Texas Tech again faded down stretch, no covers last five this season, and Red Raiders1-9 vs. spread last five games of the past two campaigns. Tech edge-Minnesota, based on Texas Tech late-season fade numbers.
AIR FORCE vs. RICE (Armed Forces Bowl, Saturday, December 29)... Air Force has covered its last three bowl games after Troy Calhoun lost and failed to cover his first two in postseason. Four of the Calhoun bowl games have been in this Armed Forces Bowl. But Falcs really backed up down the stretch in 2012 with no covers in last four games and just 3-9 overall vs. spread this season. Falcs just 12-23 overall last 35 vs. number since early in 2010 season. Rice won four of last five SU this season and covered five of its last six for David Bailiff. Tech edge-Rice, based on team trends.
NAVY vs. ARIZONA STATE (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, Saturday, December 29)...Navy dropped its last four vs. the number in 2012 but has covered in five of its last seven bowl. Mids also 20-12 vs. spread as dog since 2007, and Navy 26-13 vs. spread its last 39 as a dog dating to the middle of the 2004 season. ASU cooled off after a quick start this season and dropped 4 of its last six vs. the number, and Sun Devils have not covered in their last four bowls (last bowl cover in 2004 Sun Bowl vs. Purdue). Tech edge-Navy, based on extended team and bowl trends.
WEST VIRGINIA vs. SYRACUSE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl, Saturday, December 29)...Former Big East rivals! Cuse won meetings the past two seasons as DD underdog on both occasions. Orange also closed this season hot, winning and covering five of last six. WVU earned covers in its last three but had dropped 6 of previous 7 vs. number this season. Tech edge-Syracuse, based on recent trends.
OREGON STATE vs. TEXAS (Alamo Bowl, Saturday, December 29)... Mack Brown only 4-7 vs. number last 11 bowls, while Mike Riley 5-1 SU and 4-2 vs. line in bowls with OSU since 2003. Texas 15-24 last 38 vs. spread since late 2009. Beavers 9-2 vs. line this season and 4-1 vs. line on road in 2012. Tech edge-Oregon State, based on team and extended bowl trends.
TCU vs. MICHIGAN STATE (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Saturday, December 29)...Mark Dantonio 1-4 SU, 2-3 vs. spread in bowl games with MSU since 2007. Spartans only 4-8 vs. line this season but did cover 4 of 5 away from East Lansing (MSU was terrible 0-7 vs. spread as host this season) and are 9-3 against spread last 12 away from Spartan Stadium. Note Gary Patterson is 3-1 SU but 0-4 vs. line in last four bowls, and Frogs have won 6 of last 7 bowl games SU. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent bowl SU record.
NC STATE vs. VANDERBILT (Music City Bowl, Monday, December 31)... NCS has covered its last seven bowls which extends to the Amato and O’Brien regimes. Pack only 1-5 vs. line away from Raleigh this season but extended dog mark is good (11-6-1 since 2010, 28-16-1 since 2007 receiving points). Vandy 9-4 vs. points in 2012 and 18-8 vs. line under James Franklin since 2011, although Dores failed to cover bowl last year vs. Cincy. Tech edge-NC State, based on extended bowl numbers.
GEORGIA TECH vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Sun Bowl, Monday, December 31)... SC subpar 3-9 vs. number this season and 0-6 against number away from Coliseum. Lane Kiffin 0-1 in bowls (2009 with Tennessee against Virginia Tech in Chick fil-A Bowl). Trojans just 19-30 last 49 on board since early 2009. Paul Johnson 0-4 vs. line in bowls at GT but covered 3 of 4 in bowls with GT. Jackets 8-5 vs. line in 2012. Tech edge-Georgia Tech, based on SC road woes.
IOWA STATE vs. TULSA (Liberty Bowl, Monday, December 31)...Rematch from ISU’s 38-23 in opener of 2012 season at Ames. Tulsa 4-2 SU and vs. line last six bowl games, and Blankenship 13-7 vs. spread last 20 on board since mid 2011. Tech edge-slight to Tulsa, based on extended trends.
CLEMSON vs. LSU (Chick fil-A Bowl, Monday, December 31)...Les Miles 5-2 SU and vs. spread in bowls with LSU, although he did lose last year’s BCS title game vs. Alabama. LSU only 1-3 vs. line as road favorite this season, but he was 10-4 vs. line away from Baton Rouge in 2010-11. Dabo only 5-5 as dog since 2010 (1-1 TY) and is just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls the past four seasons. Tech edge-LSU, based on team trends.
- Teddy Covers
- April 29, 2016 - 8:15 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -139 Washington
1* Take Washington (#909)
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Mike Leake in a matchup against Stephen Strasburg, a true starting pitching mismatch. Leake’s walk rate is at a career high through his first four starts, and his ground ball rate is at a career low.
That’s a bad combination for a pitcher that doesn’t record strikeouts in bunches. He’s given up at least four runs in each of his first four starts of the season, and the only game St Louis was able to win with him on the hill came in a game where they scored eight runs.
I’m not anticipating that type of offensive outburst from the Cardinals tonight against one of Washington’s aces, Stephen Strasburg. The Nats are 4-0 with Strasburg on the hill this year. He’s lasted into the eighth inning in each of his last three starts, with a 27-4 strikeout to walk ratio during that span. Dusty Baker’s bullpen behind Strasburg is an elite unit even after taking a rare loss last night, ranked #3 in MLB in bullpen ERA.
Washington is hungry off an ugly home sweep by the Phillies during the week; shut out in each of their last two games. First baseman Ryan Zimmerman following last night’s tough loss, talking about this road trip: “We enjoy the challenge. We get to see what we are really made of. We go out and play three really good teams. I think the guys in (the) locker room are excited for it." Chalk worth laying! Take the Nationals.
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