NCAA Football Line Watch (Dec. 2)
NCAA Football Line Watch
Spread to bet now:
New Mexico State (-9.5) vs. South Alabama
Play this game now before it hits the key number of -10. New Mexico State has a legitimate revenge motive after blowing a 4th quarter lead last season in an eventual 35-28 loss at South Alabama as an 11-point underdog. The Aggies are the better team this season on both sides of the ball and they need a win this week to become bowl eligible.
South Alabama is just 4-7 SU this season and their bowls hopes were eliminated in their last game when the Jaguars lost 52-0 at Georgia Southern as a 6-point road favorite. South Alabama's defense was horrendous in that recent loss, allowing 583 total yards. The Jaguars have absolutely no running game on offense, gaining 41 total rushing yards or less in three of their past four games this year.
Spread to wait on:
UL Monroe (+27) at Florida State
Wait on this line and try to get the key number of +28. This is a makeup game from September that was originally postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Florida State is having a terrible season and they will likely overlook this unusual regular season finale, especially after an emotional win against in-state rival Florida last week. The 38-22 final score was misleading due to a +3 turnover margin for FSU who was outgained 280-216 in total yards. It was the only time this season that Florida State defeated a FBS opponent by more than seven points.
UL Monroe covered two weeks ago as a big underdog at Auburn and the Warhawks have plenty of backdoor cover potential. They possess a strong offense that is averaging 36.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow just 27.6 ppg on 5.6 yppl). UL Monroe has scored at least 50 points or more in two of their past three games, and in four different games this season.
Total to watch:
Memphis at Central Florida (81)
This American Athletic Championship game is a rematch from the regular season when Central Florida won 40-13 as a 5.5-point home favorite on September 30th. This Over/Under total opened at 85.5 and was quickly bet down several points this week. The O/U line was just 68.5 in the first meeting this season, but this rematch should be higher scoring as the Golden Knights have been an explosive offensive team all year, averaging 48.3 points per game on 7.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 33.4 ppg on 6.0 yppl).
Memphis has also been an excellent offensive team this season, averaging 47.0 points per game on 7.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 34.7 ppg on 6.6 yppl). The Tigers struggled to run the ball in the earlier meeting this year with just 75 yards, but part of the reason is because they trailed 23-7 at halftime and had to become one-dimensional and throw the ball to try and catch up. Overall, Memphis is still averaging a solid 202 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry this season.
- Larry Ness
- August 15, 2018 - 7:05 PM
- Offered at:
- betnow @ PHI (120)
My free play is on the Phil Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Boston Red Sox won again last night, as a pinch-hit, go-ahead homer in the eighth inning led to a 2-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. It was Boston's fifth straight win and 11th in 12 outings to open August. The Red Sox are currently on pace to win 115 games and sit 10 games of the Yankees in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Phillies have mustered just nine runs en route to losing four of their last five games, dropping them two games behind National League East-leading Atlanta. Philadelphia currently owns the second NL's wild card spot and the Phillies sit just one game behind Milwaukee. However, the wild card field is crowded, as the Cards are just one game back of the Phillies, with the Rockies 1 1/2 games back and the Dodgers 2 1/2 games back.
Nathan Eovaldi (5-4, 3.74 ERA) began the 2018 season with the Rays but was traded to the Red Sox before the July 31 deadline. He began his Boston career with consecutive scoreless starts but allowed eight runs (just four earned) in just 2 2/3 innings in Friday's 19-12 win against Baltimore (Eovaldi had a no decisions). Eovaldi takes the mound with a 3-4 mark with a 3.51 ERA in nine career starts versus Philadelphia. Vince Velasquez (8-9, 3.98 ERA) comes off 6-0 loss at Arizona in his last outing (four runs in four innings). The Phillies are an unimpressive 9-13 in Velasquez's starts in 2018. He has faced the Red Sox just once in his four-year big-league career, as a member of the Houston Astros back in 2015. In that contest, he gave up three runs and struck out seven batters in six innings in an 8-3 win.
The Philadelphia offense has struggled in the last week, as the team has scored just 16 runs in its last seven games (2.3 runs per game), going 2-5 in that stretch. However, while Boston's easily owns MLB's best record and the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored (among a bevy of other offensive categories), they have scored just five runs in taking two of three from the Phillies in 2018. I'm not sold even a little on Eovaldi plus will note that previous to Velasquez's most recent start, he had allowed only five ERs over 32 1/3 innings of his prior six starts (1.39 ERA). Boston can't win them all. Take the Phillies.