NCAA Football Line Watch (Dec. 2)

Steve Merril | Dec 1, 2017 | ARCHIVE

NCAA Football Line Watch

Spread to bet now:

New Mexico State (-9.5) vs. South Alabama

Play this game now before it hits the key number of -10. New Mexico State has a legitimate revenge motive after blowing a 4th quarter lead last season in an eventual 35-28 loss at South Alabama as an 11-point underdog. The Aggies are the better team this season on both sides of the ball and they need a win this week to become bowl eligible.

South Alabama is just 4-7 SU this season and their bowls hopes were eliminated in their last game when the Jaguars lost 52-0 at Georgia Southern as a 6-point road favorite. South Alabama's defense was horrendous in that recent loss, allowing 583 total yards. The Jaguars have absolutely no running game on offense, gaining 41 total rushing yards or less in three of their past four games this year.

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Spread to wait on:

UL Monroe (+27) at Florida State

Wait on this line and try to get the key number of +28. This is a makeup game from September that was originally postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Florida State is having a terrible season and they will likely overlook this unusual regular season finale, especially after an emotional win against in-state rival Florida last week. The 38-22 final score was misleading due to a +3 turnover margin for FSU who was outgained 280-216 in total yards. It was the only time this season that Florida State defeated a FBS opponent by more than seven points.

UL Monroe covered two weeks ago as a big underdog at Auburn and the Warhawks have plenty of backdoor cover potential. They possess a strong offense that is averaging 36.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow just 27.6 ppg on 5.6 yppl). UL Monroe has scored at least 50 points or more in two of their past three games, and in four different games this season.

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Total to watch:

Memphis at Central Florida (81)

This American Athletic Championship game is a rematch from the regular season when Central Florida won 40-13 as a 5.5-point home favorite on September 30th. This Over/Under total opened at 85.5 and was quickly bet down several points this week. The O/U line was just 68.5 in the first meeting this season, but this rematch should be higher scoring as the Golden Knights have been an explosive offensive team all year, averaging 48.3 points per game on 7.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 33.4 ppg on 6.0 yppl).

Memphis has also been an excellent offensive team this season, averaging 47.0 points per game on 7.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 34.7 ppg on 6.6 yppl). The Tigers struggled to run the ball in the earlier meeting this year with just 75 yards, but part of the reason is because they trailed 23-7 at halftime and had to become one-dimensional and throw the ball to try and catch up. Overall, Memphis is still averaging a solid 202 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry this season.

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