NBA Championship After 2 Month: Where's the Value?
Three weeks ago I looked at some "dark-horses" from each division which I thought offered good investment potential to win the Championship, and for hedging purposes throughout the playoffs.
After nearly two months of play, I wanted to quickly review those projections to see if they're still a viable option at this point:
This division is dominated by the Knicks and Nets early. However, the season is just under way, and the Sixers and Celtics will definitely have something to say about who wins what at the end.
I'd say Boston at 25/1 clearly offers some value. While down a key piece in Ray Allen, remember this is a team that pushed the Heat to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference finals just last year. It's one of the better coached clubs in the league, and it feels it has something to prove this season.
After two months: Brooklyn has fallen way off, sitting at 13-12 SU. The Knicks continue to shine, 19-7 SU as of writing this.
Boston is 13-13 SU and 9-15-2 ATS after two months.
Philadelphia is 13-14 SU, while Toronto is 9-19.
It's still early, and there is plenty of time for the Knicks to implode. I believe Boston still has a legitimate shot at winning the division, and is still a viable option for a futures wager after two months of action.
While it's been reported that All-Star Derrick Rose won't be ready to play until February, I still believe that Chicago's current line-up has enough "fire-power", and defensive prowess to keep it in the hunt in what is turning out to be a pretty evenly matched division after one month. When Rose returns, this team can only get better, and at 18/1, the Bulls definitely offer up some great investment value.
After two months: Chicago now leads the Central at 15-11 SU, with Indiana at 16-12. Milwaukee is nipping at their heels at 14-12.
Clearly the Bulls are still a viable investment option. Their defense is rounding into form, and with Derrick Rose now a month or two away from returning for a late season offensive boost, all signs point to a post-season berth.
The only team in this division that will give the Heat and the rest of the Eastern Conference a race will be the Atlanta Hawks. As of writing this they sit just 2.5 games back of Miami at 9-5. They're one team that definitely enjoys a home court advantage, having jumped out to an early 5-3 SU record in front of the home town crowd thus far. At 100/1, Atlanta offers fantastic value right now.
After two months: The Heat still lead at 18-6 but the Hawks have kept pace, sitting at 16-9 SU and 10-14-1 ATS. Atlanta has been getting the job done by committee, and with stifling defensive play. There is no question that the Hawks still offer tremendous value after two months.
Memphis is in a neck and neck battle with San Antonio, and these two teams will be locked in a war for the division title until the end of the year. The Spurs are the fav to win the Southwest at 12/1, but Memphis is being offered at 18/1. The Grizzlies are 8-1 at home as of writing. You should definitely consider a second look at Memphis from the Southwest.
After two months: The Grizzlies are neck and neck with San Antonio at 18-7. The Spurs are 21-8, and the Rockets are 14-12.
Memphis continues to excel in front of the home town crowd going 12-2 as of writing this.
My early prediction definitely still holds strong in this division.
The Northwest is dominated by Oklahoma City, and there's no doubt it will be contending for the Western Conference crown at the end of the year. So where's the value in this division? Utah (100-1), Denver (50-1), Minnesota (100-1) and Portland (150-1) are all intriguing propositions. I'm going to wait another month before recommending one of these dark-horses.
After two months: The Thunder continue to pull away, sitting at 21-5. Minnesota is 13-11. Denver is 15-13. Portland is 13-12. Utah is 14-14.
Once again I'm going to have to wait another month before being able to recommend one of these other dark-horses as a potential investment opportunity.
The Lakers sit at 8-8, and are 15-4 favs to win the NBA Championship. The Golden State Warriors are 10-6 right now, and are 90-1 to win the y Championship. I'm definitely recommending a second look at the Warriors right now.
After two months: The Lakers are now an even worse 13-14. Meanwhile, the Warriors sit in second spot at 18-10. The Clippers are leading the division at 21-6.
The Clippers were a 12-1 favorite last month, and are an even bigger fav to win now. That means that Golden State is still the value play in this division.
- Power Sports
- August 27, 2016 - 7:10 PM
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ -161 Boston
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1* Boston (7:10 ET): I'm just not sure that I buy into this late season Royals' resurgence. A 6-3 win last night at Fenway Park does make it 11 wins in the 12 last games for the two-time defending AL pennant winners. But they were outhit 15-9 in the victory. Then there's the matter that despite being six games over .500 for the year, they've actually been outscored by 19 runs. That's a win expectancy of 62, a five-game difference from their actual record. Their road record is still 27-40, which is third worst among AL teams. I'm taking Boston to bounce back Saturday night.
The Red Sox have the best run differential in the entire American League at +116. No other team has outscored its opponents by more than 100 runs. This is largely due to having the #1 offense in the game (692 runs scored). For the sake of comparison, the Royals have scored only 507 runs this year, which is actually the fewest among AL clubs.
The price has come way down on Boston since the line opened. Speaking of "price," it will be David going for the Sox tonight. He's won his L3 starts w/ a 1.64 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. On Monday, he shut Tampa Bay out for eight innings, allowing only two hits. He's opposed by Danny Duffy, who I suspect is the driving force behind the line move. The Royals have won each of his last 11 starts. But he hasn't faced an offense quite like this one (Red Sox average 6.0 rpg at home). Off three consecutive losses (as they are here), the Red Sox are 7-1 this season. 1* Boston