I’m a firm proponent of the following handicapping strategy: ‘Believe what you see, not what you read.’ That being said, June and July are times to break down NFL teams on paper and develop initial opinions about the pointspread value of each squad. We won’t see Detroit on the field until the beginning of preseason play in August, so for now, all we can do is develop opinions based on information available in the weeks before the start of training camp.

My gut feeling about Detroit is that this team should be able to surpass their season win total (O/U 6) with relative ease.

No team in the NFL has been worse than the Detroit Lions this decade. Since Matt Millen took over the general manager’s job back in 2001, the Lions are a woeful 24-72 straight up. Millen has gone through three head coaches during his tenure, and his disastrous draft results are well documented. But this year, it appears as if Millen finally has the right combination of coaching and talent for the Lions to turn things around.

I’m a Rod Marinelli fan. Marinelli didn’t lose the team when things went south for Detroit again last year. He didn’t lose the team when injuries besieged the Lions on both sides of the football. The 3-13 Lions were competitive down the stretch, beating the Cowboys and taking the Bears and Patriots to the wire in the final month of the season.

Now, we’ve got a second-year head coach who is obviously admired and respected by his team. Marinelli weeded out the vast majority of the malcontents in the offseason, jettisoning unhappy veterans like Dre Bly, James Hall, Terrence Holt, Josh McCown, Cory Schlessinger and Mike Williams, while bringing in Marinelli character guys like CB Travis Fisher from St. Louis, offensive linemen George Foster (Denver) and Edwin Mulitalo (Baltimore), RB Tatum Bell (Denver), and DE Dewayne White (Tampa Bay).

It’s the second year of Mike Martz’s complex offense, and we can expect better results than Detroit was able to achieve in 2006, typical of the learning curve for new offensive schemes. The Lions offensive line certainly can’t get any worse. The unit was devastated with injuries last year, allowing a league-high 63 sacks while paving the way for a league-low 70 rushing yards per game. Look for the two free-agent signees to have a major impact on the OL. Damien Woody, a former pro bowler, is spending the summer at a Duke University fat camp to keep his weight problems under control. This OL has only one direction is can go, based on last year’s results – up!

Jon Kitna is no Peyton Manning, but he’s a smart, solid, veteran quarterback who commands the respect of his teammates. With any semblance of a running game his overall numbers should improve, particularly when talking about the interceptions that plagued him a season ago. Quarterbacks in Martz’s offense need time to absorb its complexities. I rate Kitna and the Lions offense around him as a vastly improved unit from last year.

The Lions front seven is loaded talent wise, as the team has spent numerous first-day draft picks shoring up their line and linebackers. Shaun Rogers, Kalimba Edwards, Ernie Sims, Teddy Lehman and Boss Bailey were all first- or second-round picks during the Millen era, but none have been able to stay healthy and live up to expectations. DE Dewayne White played for Marinelli in Tampa, and should have an immediate impact on their pass rush. More than anything else, this unit needs to stay healthy, because the talent level is here for a dramatic turnaround.

The secondary is thin, but again, the talent level is there despite several key offseason defections. Daniel Bullocks and Kenoy Kennedy are solid safeties, cornerback Anthony Bryant must stay healthy and second-year man Stanley Wilson must step up. Still, Detroit’s pass D is primed for improvement if they get more of a pass rush this year. The defense notched only 30 sacks last year and intercepted only 12 passes, ranking 25th in the NFL in both of those categories.

The Lions schedule is fairly reasonable, not one of the tougher slates in the league. Minnesota and Green Bay are both loaded with question marks, and it’s hard to picture the controversy-laden Bears being as formidable as they were last year. NFC North teams play the AFC West and the NFC East. Oakland is down, KC is down, and the Giants and Redskins also have loads of question marks.

I think Detroit can finish 3-3 in their divisional games and 4-4 in their games against the AFC West and NFC East. That would bring them are up to seven wins already. Throw in their two additional games: home versus Tampa Bay and at Arizona, and a split seems perfectly reasonable there as well. I can see this Lions team winning eight games without a major upset. Throw in an upset or two, and we’re looking at a nine- or ten-win team, poised to make the playoffs in the weaker of the two conferences.