• 10* NCAAF TV GAME OF THE MONTH SET
• HUGE 5-GAME "MIDWEST" PACKAGE READY!
• 5-0 All Sports run - HOOPS 4-0 RUN!
• 6-2 IN COLLEGE FB LAST 2 WEEKENDS (75%) - Friday Winner Up!

NFL CLUB:My perfect 5-0 on NFL System Smash plays this year took a hit with Miami this weekend dropping me to 5-1 on those big games.My MEGA 5-GAME package on Sunday cashed as I hit 3 of five plays, overall I was 3-1 in the NFL with underdog wins on Green Bay and Carolina.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: My STRONGEST TV PLAY this month is set! It definitely warrants my 10* TOP RATING! I also love my Big Ten Game of the Week and my Big 12 North Championship Winner. Or grab ALL FIVE of my pay picks in my MIDWEST MEGA MONEY MAKER! I'm 6-2 (75%) my last two weekends in college football. The roll continues on Saturday!

NBA & COLLEGE HOOPS CLUB: NBA picks already this season 6-3 overall! College a PERFECT 3-0 to start the year! After a HUGE 2008/09 season, it looks like I'm headed for another huge season. What are you waiting for? Take a look at last year's accomplishments. Consider a long term (week or month) to grab my early NBA profits!

• NBA record ~ 104-82
• NBA Totals ~ 39-24 L63
• NBA + 17 of last 25 weeks
• NCAAB 46-21 L67
NCAAB 3-0 after another WIN on Thursday ~ covered by combined 31 points!

NHL CLUB: Nice NHL win on Tuesday with Washington. Now 7-4 my last 11. Check back Thursday afternoon for more NHL winners.

Today’s Free Pick

GAME:  California @ Stanford Nov 21, 2009 7:30PM

SPORT: College Football Picks

PICK: California

Offered at: 8 SPORTSBETTING

REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON California + vs. Stanford, Saturday at 7:30 PM EST Talk about over valued. That's what we have here with Stanford. Two weeks ago, before the Cardinal played Oregon, this line would have been nowhere near this. Now because Stanford beat the Ducks, which was a perfect spot for an upset, and a vastly over rated USC team, we're getting great value with the Bears here. This is a big time rivalry, however we can't imagine that Stanford can be completely focused and play at their top level again this week. College team simply can't play lights out football week in and week out. They have emotional and physical letdowns. This looks like a prime spot for Stanford off their two biggest games of the season, Oregon and USC. Stanford beat Oregon 51-42 which was definitely impressive. However, OU was off a big won vs. USC which many were telling them would decide the Pac 10 Championship. After that win, the Ducks had a letdown. Although they did out gain Stanford 570 to 505. Last Saturday they destroyed a USC team that just doesn't have it this year. Two weeks earlier the Trojans were whipped by 27 points @ Oregon. The following week they barely squeezed by an Arizona State team that really struggles on offense. Despite those offensive problems, the Devils out yarded mighty USC 347 to 258. Thus, while those were two very good wins for a solid Stanford team, they weren't quite as fantastic as they may look in hindsight. The Bears are off a very solid 24-16 win over an Arizona team that was battling for a potential Pac 10 Title. They have the same 7-3 record as Stanford, yet due to the Cardinals perceived dominating performances the last two weeks they are the big dog here. Cal's defense matches up fairly well vs. Stanford in this one. The Cardinal live and die with the run. While freshman QB Andrew Luck has impressive numbers, everything he does is set up by their ability to run the ball. Cal is 19th nationally at stopping the run. They allow only 3.2 YPC which is very solid. We doubt that Stanford will be able to run at will in this one making things more difficult for QB Luck. While Stanford's offense is solid, their defense isn't all that stout. They rank 80th in the nation in yardage allowed. They have given up 38 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. Cal's defense is better giving up just 22.4 PPG on the season. Also, we don't think Stanford can "run away" from Cal here as the Bears can put up points when needed especially against a below average defense. That makes the generous points here very attractive. To give you a few ideas of the value with Cal here, we look at previous meetings. Last year the Bears were an 8.5 point favorite at home in this rivalry and won 37-16. Two years ago in Stanford, the Bears were 13 point favorites. Now we understand that the Cardinal are vastly improved, however that is quite a swing in numbers. Another example would be Stanford's other Pac 10 home games this year. They were favored by 9.5 vs. Washington, by 5 vs. UCLA, by 7 vs. Arizona State and a 6.5 point dog to Oregon. That gives you an idea of where this line probably should be which is lower than this. It's not, and we take advantage of the value by grabbing Cal as a dog of more than a TD. Best of Luck, Lee.

Expert Biography

Age: 43

Years in handicapping: 19 years in the Sports gaming industry, the last 13 years as owner and primary handicapper at my company. I was fortunate enough to learn from one of the best in the industry before venturing on my own in 1997.

Achievements in handicapping: Consistently showing profits for my clients is easily my greatest achievement in sports wagering! I certainly wouldn’t have lasted this long in this industry without providing winning results for my loyal client base. Standing the test of time, being recognized by my peers as a true professional and having the growing reputation as one of the best in the industry is also very gratifying. If you’re a number person though I have over 45 documented top 10 finishes in all sports since 1996, including several #1 rankings at Sports Watch and Sports Monitor. Creating a name in the industry as one of the best Big Game Services in the nation is certainly something that I am very proud of. Producing a 10-2 lifetime record on the famed 10-Star Midwest College Game of the Year in football and creating a huge following on that particular game has also been very rewarding for me.

Biggest win of the year: My biggest win of the year is my next one! Actually every win is a big win and I love a game that plays out exactly as I predicted it would. As a handicapper it is very satisfying to dissect a game, break it down from every angle possible then see your play on a team destroy their foe and cover with ease in the process. If I have to single out one particular game though there is one that stands out from this past season it would be my Midwest Game of the Year with Penn State minus the points over Michigan State. PSU was favored by 16 and ended up winning 49-18 which was even more lopsided than the final margin indicated. The Nittany Lions were +225 in total yards and gave up 11 meaningless points in the final nine minutes. Yes, that was a very nice win and I remember it well.

Biggest loss of the year: Not just any one game is my biggest loss, but every game I lose is my biggest loss! To better understand me I’ll say this: I hate to lose any game or selection...period! I don’t dwell on losses and won’t let a bad outcome affect me on future picks, as I’d be doing my clients a huge disservice. Whether I win or lose a game I quickly put it behind me and move on to the next day. But, if I had to single out one specific loss that I vividly remember it would be the Houston Texans (-9) over the Detroit Lions. After the first three drives of the game it was 21-0 in favor of Houston and looking like a blowout. In the 4th quarter and leading 28-10 the Texans gave up a 96 yard TD pass and 2-point conversion to cut the margin to 28-18. Detroit tacked on a meaningless field goal with just over four minutes to play to cover. This loss was easily my most memorable of this season and for that fact, the biggest for me personally.

Favorite page to use on Covers.com: The matchup reports are fantastic on Covers.com and are a staple of my daily handicapping process. Covers offers a plethora of information available in a very efficient and easy to use format which can be utilized by every level of sports bettors ranging from experts to recreational gamblers. Inside the matchup reports it’s easy and convenient to see how the two opponents have done historically and how well or poorly a team may be playing most recently. It is also very easy to evaluate the actual lines or pointspreads on teams in their previous games and make general comparisons with common foes. Covers matchup reports are found on my computer in my favorites and they should be bookmarked on yours too.

Systems used for handicapping: My handicapping process is extensive, completely thorough and what matters most, highly productive. My methods have been developed through years of hard work and research. Rather than implementing one specific strategy, I intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making my selections. I break down exactly what happened in a team’s previous game(s) so I know exactly how a team is currently performing. I’ll then start the evaluation process on the pointspread and look for discrepancies compared to my power ratings and see if I have any advantages based on the numbers. Then I start the process of sifting through every possible statistic on every game on the board looking for any advantage that might put me on the right side of a game. While I’m manually researching games my computer program is running 10,000 simulations of each game on the schedule for that particular day or weekend. Just because a play may have an advantage in one area doesn’t mean it will get my final stamp of approval though, it must meet all of my stringent criteria before I’ll recommend an investment. I’m extremely confident in my abilities as a handicapper and I’m sure there aren’t many Services in the world today that out-work me.

Favorite team to wager on or against: Just like every other gambler, the winning team is my favorite team after the game is over. Seriously though, I tend to follow the Big Ten conference very closely considering I’m located right here in Madison, Wisconsin which obviously includes my home state Badgers. Under former head coach Barry Alvarez the Badger were a ‘spread covering machine’ in certain circumstances which I often took advantage of.

Team you avoid when wagering: There isn’t any one single team I avoid when wagering as every team has value either playing on or against if the situation is right. In my experiences typically bettors don’t like taking losing or bad teams which are normally sizeable underdogs but if the time, place and number is right, I’m not afraid to take them. Sometimes when word gets out that a team is having internal team chemistry issues I may avoid them as you never know what their mental state of mind might be. Other than that all teams are fair game.