Saturday: NCAA "Quality and Quantity"

We have been looking forward to this NCAA Gridiron board since the numbers opened last Sunday night, and we have used the "Quantity and Quality" tag all week. We have seven plays in action so far, including two Sides that merit our Top 6* Rating, and we may not be done yet - if we get the right movement from what should be an active Saturday marketplace there are two more games just a point from our radar screens. Our action starts with the early kickoffs, and will not be finished until we cash a 6* tonight on one of the nationally televised showdowns. It also looks like both the NCAA and NBA Hardwoods will bring us wide open shots, so it looks like a great day to play.

As always there are multiple options on your end; you can check back play by play over the course of the day, or your own personal Best Bet - a weekly or monthly package can make sure that you do not miss any of the

Today’s Free Pick

GAME:  Vanderbilt @ Tennessee Nov 21, 2009 7:00PM

SPORT: College Football Picks

PICK: Tennessee

Offered at: -17 WSEX

REASON FOR PICK: 4* #340 TENNESSEE over VANDERBILT Lane Kiffin put a bright Bulls Eye on his back when he took over the head spot in Knoxville. But while he would have liked to have walked away from this season with those well-played road losses at Florida and Alabama being a sign that the program has turned the corner and is on track under his leadership, the off-field incidents of the past two weeks, and that second-half collapse at Ole Miss on Saturday, have that Bulls Eye shining as brightly as at any time all season. That means a concerted focus to throw a knockout punch in the last game in front of the home fans, and given Kiffin’s ego we can rely on that intensity being there. The practice reports back it up – he gave the team Sunday and Monday off and told them to be prepared for some heavy hitting during the week, and that has been the case. And with the ideal opponent coming to town, this one gets ugly. We cashed a 4* ticket against Vanderbilt with Kentucky last week, noting the travails of that level of program having to play 12 games in as many weeks this season, and the Commodores were dominated by much more than the 24-13 final score would show. They got out-rushed 306-82, and did not have a first down in the second half. And Bobby Johnson, a coach that we respect a lot, is aware of the toll that has been taken - "Can I guarantee that we won't have another year without a bye again? No, I can't, but we will definitely try to make sure that doesn't happen again." The problem has not just been facing the usual S.E.C. meat grinder, but also having to run into physical Georgia Tech three games back. Now it only goes from bad to worse, with the Vandy defense losing top CB Myron Lewis last week (from Johnson - ”It’s an All-S.E.C. caliber corner so that’s not going to help us at all not having him out there. It’s not just regular downs, it’s the nickel situations and the dime situations and that affects all those defensive backs. It’s just going to be pretty tough to replace him.”). But it may not just end there – LB Patrick Benoist, who is second on the team in tackles, has yet to practice this week after suffering a concussion in Saturday’s loss, and we would expect them to err on the side of caution if there are any questions at all. That depleted defense faces the same up-hill battle that has been their constant in recent weeks – an offense that lacks playmakers can not control the ball long enough to give them any respite. Vandy has only scored 46 points in seven S.E.C. games (they got nine more on a safety and a kickoff return), and on the league road they have not reach the end zone in the last 157:20 of playing time. To save you the calculation time, that is nearly 10.5 full quarters. Now they face an athletic defense that will be hungry off of Saturday’s meltdown, which makes production even harder to come by. Kiffin has had no qualms about rolling at home vs. a weak opponent – in his three games on this field laying double figures the Vols have gone 2-1 ATS, scoring 153 points and gaining 1,627 yards. Ominous from a sportsmanship standpoint is that they threw 104 passes in those games, but for our own particular purposes that is actually a good thing this week.

Expert Biography

Age: 48

Years in handicapping: 28 (Yes, the first issue of The Gridiron Report was published shortly before my 21st birthday)

Achievements in handicapping: Editor and publisher of the Gridiron Report; editor of the Sporting Times. Consultant work for all major Las Vegas sportsbooks; an advisor to on-line sportsbooks in 11 different countries; Executive Director of Sports Consultants of Nevada.

Biggest win of the year: We can think back fondly on the Biggest Day, instead of a single win. We absolutely love the college basketball conference tournament cycles because of all of the different handicapping factors that come into play, and how so many of those factors cause headaches for the oddsmakers. This past March 14th it led to a rare board in which we had three 6* plays the same day, Florida State over North Carolina, Missouri over Baylor and Louisville over Syracuse, and all three got the money.

Biggest loss of the year: We will always remember back to our "Orange Crush" sequence, and not very fondly. Twice in the span of seven days we had large plays on Syracuse Totals Under, including one that carried a 6* Rating, and both times we got exactly the pace that we were looking for - the first play vs. Marquette finished 12 points below the Total after 40 minutes, and the second vs. West Virginia finished 13.5 points below the Total after 40 minutes. Unfortunately, both games went into overtime, turning two easy wins into losses with the same team and the same idea in a frustrating cycle.

Why you like Covers Experts: Real simple - no win, no charge. The way that it should be.

Systems used when handicapping a game: In order to remain ahead of the game over time, it means using the entire library of approaches,” Malinsky says. “There isn’t a major academic discipline that does't regularly come into play.”

Favorite stats/pages on Covers: Covers has taken all of my written notebooks and Excel spreadsheets on MLB pitchers out of commission, which saves an enormous amount of time.

Favorite team to wager on or against: There are some veteran coaches that we have done awfully well with, regardless of whether we are playing on or against them, because of a consistency in the way that they run their programs. Joe Paterno in college football has been great to our pockets for decades, and the same is true for Tom Izzo in college basketball. We are particularly looking forward to Ben Howland and Tim Floyd settling in at the L.A. schools for a long time on the college hardwoods.

Team you avoid when wagering: This varies from year to year depending on coaching and personnel, but one of our key focus points is to avoid teams that do not know how to win. That might sound like an over-simplification, yet with the oddsmaking process being dominated by power ratings, many times these teams find themselves in pick’em games. Such examples would be baseball teams with weak bullpens; football and basketball teams that lack experience at the key skill positions that matter at crunch time (QB and point guard). All teams in all sports have some things that they can do well, but performing well is one thing; winning can often be another matter entirely.

Sports, conferences and divisions he excels at handicapping: College football remains No. 1 over a couple of decades with Major League Baseball at No. 2. In particular season cycles other sports can have some major runs, but those two still remain at the top.

Quote: “The ability to win requires a unique understanding of all of the processes involved and we have been lucky enough to have been on the cutting edge of so many of these processes through nearly 25 years in the field,” Malinsky says. “It has created the ability to understand the games from both sides of the counter and to learn from some true masters of the craft. It also has helped build the discipline needed to maintain navigation over what can be some rough seas.”